Framework for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change

2022 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 102152
Author(s):  
Abdul Kadir Alhamid ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama ◽  
Hiroki Ishibashi ◽  
Koki Aoki ◽  
Shunichi Koshimura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

scholarly journals Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2557-2568 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wronna ◽  
R. Omira ◽  
M. A. Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
Flow Depth ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 173 (12) ◽  
pp. 3671-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall J. LeVeque ◽  
Knut Waagan ◽  
Frank I. González ◽  
Donsub Rim ◽  
Guang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Regional tsunami hazard maps for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation built in the framework of the PTHA methodology

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Вячеслав Константинович Гусяков ◽  
Владимир Андреевич Кихтенко ◽  
Леонид Борисович Чубаров ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
The Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

В работе идет речь о реализации методики вероятностного цунамирайонирования побережья, известной под названием PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), для создания обзорных карт цунамиопасности дальневосточного побережья России. Обсуждаются методологические основы такого подхода, проблемы построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, численные методики получения расчетных каталогов высот волн на побережье. Приведены примеры обзорных карт для различных повторяемостей, построенных с применением методики PTHA и представленных с помощью созданного веб-приложения WTMap. Упоминаются также некоторые проблемы применения методики PTHA, связанные как с недостаточностью данных наблюдений, так и со сложностью выполнения большого объема сценарного численного моделирования. The article describes the results of the implementation of the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) methodology for creating the overview maps of tsunami hazard for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation. Such maps show the characteristics of the catastrophic impact of tsunami waves on the coast and the probability of their exceeding in a given period of time. The methodological basis of the PTHA approach to the assessment of tsunami hazard, the problems of constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones, mathematical models and algorithms for calculating probability estimates of tsunami danger are discussed. The version of the PTHA methodology outlined in the article is implemented as a “WTmap” Web-application that has an access to the entire observational information related to coastal tsunami zoning and software packages used. The application allows to obtain the estimates of the expected tsunami heights and their recurrence estimates and to map them on specific parts of the Far Eastern coast of the Russian Federation. The obtained estimates can be quickly recalculated when replacing the observational catalogs with more complete and reliable ones, with the addition of new, previously absent events or the revision of their parameters, as well as the results of new scenario calculations. Examples of overview maps for various recurrence intervals, constructed using the PTHA methodology and presented using the “WTMap” application, are given. Some problems of using the PTHA methodology related to the lack of available observational data and to the complexity of performing a large amount of scenario simulations are also discussed.

scholarly journals A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3105-3122 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Horspool ◽  
I. Pranantyo ◽  
J. Griffin ◽  
H. Latief ◽  
D. H. Natawidjaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Sunda Arc ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment with simulation-based response surfaces

2020 ◽  
Vol 160 ◽  
pp. 103719 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Kotani ◽  
K. Tozato ◽  
S. Takase ◽  
S. Moriguchi ◽  
K. Terada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Методы и проблемы оценки цунамиопасности морских побережий, "Фундаментальная и прикладная гидрофизика"

2017 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Author(s):  
В.К. Гусяков
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Обсуждаются методы и подходы, используемые в России и за рубежом для картирования цунамиопасности на побережьях, подверженных воздействию волн цунами, т. е. для решения задачи предварительного цунамирайо- нирования побережья. Эта задача состоит в получении оценок высот цунами на берегу с заданной вероятностью превышения в течении определенного интервала времени. В настоящее время она решается на основе построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, угрожающих данному побережью и применения численных моделей возбуждения и распространения цунами в океане с реальным рельефом дна для получения расчетного каталога высот волн на побережье. Отмечается методологическая общность этой задачи с задачей оценки сейсмоопасности прибрежных территорий, которая во всех странах сейчас решается на основе методики Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. Применительно к задаче цунамирайонирования подобная методика получила название Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. При всех известных недостатках этой методики, как принципиальных, так и технических, она может и должна быть использована для картирования цунамиопасности на побережьях России. Обсуждаются подходы к рациональному выбору масштабов карт цунамиопасности, к определению набора картируемых параметров, проблема оценки максимально возможного события.

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