scholarly journals Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation

2016 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 184-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter E.D. Love ◽  
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui ◽  
Zahir Irani
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Probabilistic Theory ◽  
Cost Overruns

The Anatomy of Geotechnical Risk Factors in Transportation Infrastructure Projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Amadi Alolote
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Contractor Selection ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Ground Conditions ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

Ground conditions constitute a key risk factor that can ultimately determine the successful performance of construction contracts, with the literature reporting statistics of projects which have significantly exceeded their initial budget due to geotechnical uncertainties. The study explores the nature of geotechnical risk factors in transportation infrastructure projects, which potentially lead to cost overruns. The study provides a kaleidoscopic view of the various routes to managing risks due to the ground, at the preconstruction phases of highway projects, and how a lack thereof, can culminate to determine the trend of high-cost overruns in highway projects. The study findings reveal arguments and widely contested issues in geotechnical practice, which to various degrees, can have a significant financial impact on project completion cost in highway projects. The findings uncover various error traps and gaps in practice such as the lack of deterministic costing methods that better reflect heterogeneous ground conditions; insufficiency of preliminary geotechnical exploration; poor geotechnical risk containment in contracts as well as non-deployment of multi-dimensional geotechnically bespoke contractor selection algorithm. The study submits that these gaps in practice constitute the various trajectories through which geotechnical risk can trigger inefficiency and wastage of financial resources, leading to cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects.

Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates on Large Transportation Projects

1996 ◽  
Vol 1518 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mette K. Skamris ◽  
Bent Flyvbjerg
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Transportation Projects ◽  
Before And After

Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and construction costs in large transportation infrastructure projects. The few studies that do exist show that forecasts of construction costs tend to be underestimated and those of traffic, overestimated. An examination of construction costs and traffic in seven large Danish bridge and tunnel projects indicates that, on average, construction costs were underestimated and traffic was overestimated in the initial phases of planning. This pattern is also found for similar projects in other countries. When the results of all the projects are pooled, it is seen that cost overruns of 50 to 100 percent are common and that overruns above 100 percent are not uncommon. Traffic forecasts that are off by 20 to 60 percent when compared with actual development are frequent in large transportation infrastructure projects. The result of this overoptimism in the initial planning phases is that decisions are based on misleading forecasts that may lead to a misallocation of funds and underperforming projects.

scholarly journals Harnessing Machine Learning for Classifying Economic Damage Trends in Transportation Infrastructure Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6376
Author(s):  
Junseo Bae ◽  
Sang-Guk Yum ◽  
Ji-Myong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Financial Losses

Given the highly visible nature, transportation infrastructure construction projects are often exposed to numerous unexpected events, compared to other types of construction projects. Despite the importance of predicting financial losses caused by risk, it is still difficult to determine which risk factors are generally critical and when these risks tend to occur, without benchmarkable references. Most of existing methods are prediction-focused, project type-specific, while ignoring the timing aspect of risk. This study filled these knowledge gaps by developing a neural network-driven machine-learning classification model that can categorize causes of financial losses depending on insurance claim payout proportions and risk occurrence timing, drawing on 625 transportation infrastructure construction projects including bridges, roads, and tunnels. The developed network model showed acceptable classification accuracy of 74.1%, 69.4%, and 71.8% in training, cross-validation, and test sets, respectively. This study is the first of its kind by providing benchmarkable classification references of economic damage trends in transportation infrastructure projects. The proposed holistic approach will help construction practitioners consider the uncertainty of project management and the potential impact of natural hazards proactively, with the risk occurrence timing trends. This study will also assist insurance companies with developing sustainable financial management plans for transportation infrastructure projects.

scholarly journals Planning Modes for Major Transportation Infrastructure Projects (MTIPs): Comparing China and Germany

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianxiao Zhou ◽  
Rong Tan ◽  
Thomas Sedlin
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Final Approval ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Governance Practices

Because major transportation infrastructure projects (MTIPs) have significant effects for a sustainable development, the planning modes used for these projects have been a popular topic among scholars and policy makers. However, detailed descriptions and comparisons of planning modes in different countries are still rare. Therefore, this paper first provides a simple analytical framework based on the elements of the planning goal, the planning process, the planning result and the evaluation criteria. Focusing on the hierarchic mode adopted in China, and the democratic participatory mode adopted in Germany, the governance practices used in MTIP planning are clearly shown. Furthermore, by using two airport cases, this paper compares the differences between China and Germany in the realms of preparation, review, coordination, final approval, and planning performance. The main conclusions are: (1) The analytical approach presented in this paper provides an appropriate standard for describing and comparing planning modes for MTIPs; (2) the planning modes in the two countries each have advantages and disadvantages, reflecting the trade-off between ex ante and ex post costs; (3) the comparison between China and Germany may be instructive for both of these countries and for other countries in terms of improving their planning performance in the future.

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