Review of Basic Probability Concepts and Common Distributions

2020 ◽  
pp. 207-210
Keyword(s):  
Basic Probability

Probability

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
Deborah Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Bayes Rule ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Classroom Activities ◽  
Basic Probability

This chapter contains many classroom activities and demonstrations to help students understand basic probability calculations, including conditional probability and Bayes rule. Many of the activities alert students to misconceptions about randomness. They create dramatic settings where the instructor discerns real coin flips from fake ones, students modify dice and coins in order to load them, students “accused” of lying based on the outcome of an inaccurate simulated lie detector face their classmates. Additionally, probability models of real outcomes offer good value: first we can do the probability calculations, and then can go back and discuss the potential flaws of the model.

scholarly journals Probability logic: A model-theoretic perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Pourmahdian ◽  
R Zoghifard
Keyword(s):  
Characterization Theorem ◽  
Expressive Power ◽  
Probability Logic ◽  
Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Compactness Property ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Finitely Additive Probability ◽  
Additive Probability ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
Abstract Logics

Abstract This paper provides some model-theoretic analysis for probability (modal) logic ($PL$). It is known that this logic does not enjoy the compactness property. However, by passing into the sublogic of $PL$, namely basic probability logic ($BPL$), it is shown that this logic satisfies the compactness property. Furthermore, by drawing some special attention to some essential model-theoretic properties of $PL$, a version of Lindström characterization theorem is investigated. In fact, it is verified that probability logic has the maximal expressive power among those abstract logics extending $PL$ and satisfying both the filtration and disjoint unions properties. Finally, by alternating the semantics to the finitely additive probability models ($\mathcal{F}\mathcal{P}\mathcal{M}$) and introducing positive sublogic of $PL$ including $BPL$, it is proved that this sublogic possesses the compactness property with respect to $\mathcal{F}\mathcal{P}\mathcal{M}$.

scholarly journals An improved conflicting-evidence combination method based on the redistribution of the basic probability assignment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zezheng Yan ◽  
Hanping Zhao ◽  
Xiaowen Mei
Keyword(s):  
Evidence Theory ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Probability Assignment ◽  
Basic Probability Assignment ◽  
Combination Methods ◽  
Conflicting Evidence ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Right ◽  
Conflict Intensity ◽  
Dempster’S Rule Of Combination

AbstractDempster–Shafer evidence theory is widely applied in various fields related to information fusion. However, the results are counterintuitive when highly conflicting evidence is fused with Dempster’s rule of combination. Many improved combination methods have been developed to address conflicting evidence. Nevertheless, all of these approaches have inherent flaws. To solve the existing counterintuitive problem more effectively and less conservatively, an improved combination method for conflicting evidence based on the redistribution of the basic probability assignment is proposed. First, the conflict intensity and the unreliability of the evidence are calculated based on the consistency degree, conflict degree and similarity coefficient among the evidence. Second, the redistribution equation of the basic probability assignment is constructed based on the unreliability and conflict intensity, which realizes the redistribution of the basic probability assignment. Third, to avoid excessive redistribution of the basic probability assignment, the precision degree of the evidence obtained by information entropy is used as the correction factor to modify the basic probability assignment for the second time. Finally, Dempster’s rule of combination is used to fuse the modified basic probability assignment. Several different types of examples and actual data sets are given to illustrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method. Furthermore, the comparative analysis reveals the proposed method to be better at obtaining the right results than other related methods.

Extended two-dimensional belief function based on divergence measurement

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Jianping Fan ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Meiqin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Belief Function ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Divergence Measure ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Belief Functions ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Supporting Degree

The two-dimensional belief function (TDBF = (mA, mB)) uses a pair of ordered basic probability distribution functions to describe and process uncertain information. Among them, mB includes support degree, non-support degree and reliability unmeasured degree of mA. So it is more abundant and reasonable than the traditional discount coefficient and expresses the evaluation value of experts. However, only considering that the expert’s assessment is single and one-sided, we also need to consider the influence between the belief function itself. The difference in belief function can measure the difference between two belief functions, based on which the supporting degree, non-supporting degree and unmeasured degree of reliability of the evidence are calculated. Based on the divergence measure of belief function, this paper proposes an extended two-dimensional belief function, which can solve some evidence conflict problems and is more objective and better solve a class of problems that TDBF cannot handle. Finally, numerical examples illustrate its effectiveness and rationality.

scholarly journals Conflict Data Fusion in a Multi-Agent System Premised on the Base Basic Probability Assignment and Evidence Distance

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 820
Author(s):  
Jingyu Liu ◽  
Yongchuan Tang
Keyword(s):  
Data Fusion ◽  
Evidence Theory ◽  
Multi Agent System ◽  
Agent System ◽  
Combination Rules ◽  
Probability Assignment ◽  
Basic Probability Assignment ◽  
Reasonable Evidence ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
Multi Agent

The multi-agent information fusion (MAIF) system can alleviate the limitations of a single expert system in dealing with complex situations, as it allows multiple agents to cooperate in order to solve problems in complex environments. Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory has important applications in multi-source data fusion, pattern recognition, and other fields. However, the traditional Dempster combination rules may produce counterintuitive results when dealing with highly conflicting data. A conflict data fusion method in a multi-agent system based on the base basic probability assignment (bBPA) and evidence distance is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the new bBPA and reconstructed BPA are used to construct the initial belief degree of each agent. Then, the information volume of each evidence group is obtained by calculating the evidence distance so as to modify the reliability and obtain more reasonable evidence. Lastly, the final evidence is fused with the Dempster combination rule to obtain the result. Numerical examples show the effectiveness and availability of the proposed method, which improves the accuracy of the identification process of the MAIF system.

scholarly journals On Basic Probability Logic Inequalities

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1409
Author(s):  
Marija Boričić Joksimović
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Inference Rule ◽  
Modus Ponens ◽  
Probability Logic ◽  
Modus Tollens ◽  
Short Overview ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Version ◽  
Hypothetical Syllogism

We give some simple examples of applying some of the well-known elementary probability theory inequalities and properties in the field of logical argumentation. A probabilistic version of the hypothetical syllogism inference rule is as follows: if propositions A, B, C, A→B, and B→C have probabilities a, b, c, r, and s, respectively, then for probability p of A→C, we have f(a,b,c,r,s)≤p≤g(a,b,c,r,s), for some functions f and g of given parameters. In this paper, after a short overview of known rules related to conjunction and disjunction, we proposed some probabilized forms of the hypothetical syllogism inference rule, with the best possible bounds for the probability of conclusion, covering simultaneously the probabilistic versions of both modus ponens and modus tollens rules, as already considered by Suppes, Hailperin, and Wagner.

Basic probability theory

1992 ◽  
pp. 21-53
Author(s):  
Roy Billinton ◽  
Ronald N. Allan
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Basic Probability
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