Business Microloans for U.S. Subprime Borrowers

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesare Fracassi ◽  
Mark J. Garmaise ◽  
Shimon Kogan ◽  
Gabriel Natividad
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Automated Algorithm ◽  
Firm Success ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Managerial Experience

AbstractWe show that business microloans to U.S. subprime borrowers have a very large impact on subsequent firm success. Using data on startup loan applicants from a lender that employed an automated algorithm in its application review, we implement a regression discontinuity design assessing the causal impact of receiving a loan on firms. Startups receiving funding are dramatically more likely to survive, enjoy higher revenues, and create more jobs. Loans are more consequential for survival among subprime business owners with more education and less managerial experience.

scholarly journals No extension without representation? Evidence from a natural experiment in collective bargaining

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Hijzen ◽  
Pedro S. Martins
Keyword(s):  
Collective Bargaining ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Collective Agreements ◽  
Causal Impact

AbstractIn many countries, collective bargaining coverage is enhanced by government-issued extensions that widen the reach of collective agreements beyond their signatory parties to all firms and workers in the sector. This paper analyzes the causal impact of extensions using a natural experiment in Portugal that resulted in a sharp and unanticipated decline in the extension probability of agreements. Our results, based on a regression discontinuity design, indicate that extensions had a negative impact on employment growth. This effect is concentrated among nonaffiliated firms, which may reflect the limited representativeness of employer associations.

scholarly journals The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 152700252198939
Author(s):  
Barry Reilly ◽  
Robert Witt
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Institutional Arrangement ◽  
Design Approach ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Spectator Attendance

This paper exploits a sharp regression discontinuity design to identify the causal impact of the Scottish Premiership League (SPL) “split” on spectator match attendance. We use data drawn from all 19 completed seasons for which this institutional arrangement has been in place. The causal effect of the “split” is to induce, for the last five rounds of games played in the season, a differential in average attendance of about 24% between the clubs that just qualify for the “Championship Play-off” section and those that do not. However, the annualized effect for the season is found to be modest.

Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Butler ◽  
Matthew J. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

We provide an introduction to the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and use the technique to evaluate models of sequential Senate elections predicting that the winning party for one Senate seat will receive fewer votes in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946 to 2004, we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent.

The Primary Effect: Preference Votes and Political Promotions

2016 ◽  
Vol 110 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLLE FOLKE ◽  
TORSTEN PERSSON ◽  
JOHANNA RICKNE
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Primary Effect ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Internal Organization ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Local Party

In this analysis of how electoral rules and outcomes shape the internal organization of political parties, we make an analogy to primary elections to argue that parties use preference-vote tallies to identify popular politicians and promote them to positions of power. We document this behavior among parties in Sweden's semi-open-list system and in Brazil's open-list system. To identify a causal impact of preference votes, we exploit a regression discontinuity design around the threshold of winning the most preference votes on a party list. In our main case, Sweden, these narrow “primary winners” are at least 50% more likely to become local party leaders than their runners-up. Across individual politicians, the primary effect is present only for politicians who hold the first few positions on the list and when the preference-vote winner and runner-up have similar competence levels. Across party groups, the primary effect is the strongest in unthreatened governing parties.

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