Symptom remission at 12-weeks is a strong predictor for long term outcome

Background: Although the NIHSS is a well-validated tool in assessing neurological deficit and predicting long-term outcome in acute cerebral ischemia, its utility in ICH has not been extensively studied. As NIHSS is routinely obtained in cases of stroke prior to imaging, it is often available in ICH patients to potentially assist physicians in triage, prognostication, and risk-adjustment. Methods: We analyzed consecutive patients enrolled in the NIH Field Administration of Stroke Therapy-Magnesium (FAST-MAG) phase 3 trial whose final diagnosis was ICH. Trained study nurses performed the NIHSS in the Emergency Department (ED) shortly after arrival and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. Primary outcomes were disability or death (mRS 3-6) and mortality. Candidate potential predictor variables, including NIHSS, ICH Score, and GCS, those with threshold of p<0.10 were candidate parameters for backward selection logistic regression to determine independent predictors of disability or death and of mortality. Results: Among the 384 ICH patients, age was mean 65 (±13); female 34%; race white 78%, black 10%, Asian 10%; Hispanic ethnicity 33%; and history of hypertension 78%. The ED NIHSS and GCS was performed a median 148 minutes (IQR 121-180) after last known well. Initial NIHSS was median 16 (IQR 9-16), GCS 15 (IQR 10-15), and ICH Score 1(IQR 0-2). NIHSS correlated with ICH Score (r=0.780) and GCS (r=0.860). At 90 days, median mRS was 4 (IQR 2-6), disability or death (mRS 3-6) was present in 70%, and mortality occurred in 26%. In predicting disability or death at 90 days, c statistics were: NIHSS 0.81, ICH Score 0.81, and GCS 0.72. NIHSS≥14 showed 72% sensitivity and 75% specificity. For mortality by 90 days, c statistics were: NIHSS 0.78, ICH Score 0.80, and GCS 0.73. NIHSS≥19 had 80% sensitivity and 70% specificity. On multivariate analysis age (OR 1.07, 95%CI 1.04-2.0) and NIHSS (OR 1.18, 95%CI 1.13-1.23) were independent predictors of disability and death. Conclusions: The initial NIHSS is a strong predictor of disability and death and good predictor of mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage, performing as well as the ICH Score and better than the GCS. Consideration should be given to routine performance and documentation of the NIHSS in ICH patients.

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Disease Patterns for Patients (pts) with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) That Have BCR-ABL Transcript Levels > 10% At 3 Month of Therapy with Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors (TKIs)

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood.v120.21.3757.3757 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 120 (21) ◽

pp. 3757-3757

Author(s):

Aziz Nazha ◽

Hagop M. Kantarjian ◽

Preetesh Jain ◽

Elias J. Jabbour ◽

Alfonso Quintás-Cardama ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Research Funding ◽

Strong Predictor ◽

Chronic Phase ◽

Transcript Level ◽

Initial Therapy ◽

Molecular Response ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Free Survival

Abstract Abstract 3757 Background: Response to TKIs in CML at 3 month is a strong predictor for long term outcome in CML patients treated with TKIs. Pts who do not achieve a BCR-ABL transcript level < 10% or a MCyR at 3 months have lower event-free survival (EFS) and perhaps overall survival (OS). However, pts have rarely changed therapy based on response at this early time points. The purpose of this analysis is to understand the patterns of disease progression and management in this group of patients. Patients and Methods: A total of 489 newly diagnosed CML pts that received initial treatment with TKIs: imatinib 400 mg daily (83) imatinib 800 mg daily (199), and second generation TKIs (2GTKIs) (207) in consecutive or parallel trials between 7/2000 and 6/2011 were included in this analysis. Cytogentic and molecular responses were evaluated every 3 month for the first year and then every 6 month. Event was defined as transformation to accelerated phase (AP) or blast phase (BP), loss of complete hematologic response (CHR), or loss of MCyR. Results: Among the 489 treated pts, 58 (12%) did not achieve a MCyR or BCR-ABL transcript level < 10 % at 3 months (26 pts (31%) received IM400, 19 (10%) IM800, and 13 (6%) 2GTKIs. Eleven of these pts (19%) had high sokal score at diagnosis (1 pt treated with imatinib 400, 7 with imatinib 800, 3 with 2GTKIs). By 6 months, 52/58 pts (90%) continued on their original therapy: 39 (67%) at the same dose and 19 (33%) with a decreased dose because of adverse events. No pt had a dose increase. Six pts had discontinued therapy by 6 month: 4 due to intolerance, 1 loss of CHR and 1 for progression to BP. At 6 month, 27 pts (47%) achieved MCyR or BCR-ABL transcript level < 10 %. At 12 months, 47 pts (81%) were still receiving their initial therapy, 11 pts (19%) had discontinued their initial TKI: 6 due to intolerance, 1 loss of CHR, 2 for progression to BP, and 2 for resistant disease. After a median follow up of 95 months, 17 pts (29%) continue to receive their initial therapy and their current disease status are: complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) in 14 (82%), 2 (12%) lost their CCyR, and 1(6%) pt who never achieve any cytogenetic or molecular response and remains in chronic phase on the same dose of imatinib for over 8 years. Among these 17 pts, 11 (65%) have MMR, 2 (12%) with MR4.5, and 4 (24%) have lost MMR (2 of them with loss of CCyR). The 5 years OS, EFS and transformation-free survival (TFS) for the patients who did not achieve any response at 3 month was 88%, 77%, and 94%, respectively. The OS, EFS, and TFS for the patients who subsequently achieved a response (MCyR or BCR-ABL transcript level < 10 %) at 6 month was 100%, 66%, and 95%, respectively vs those who continued to have no response 79%, 95%, and 100%, respectively (P = 0.17, 0.07, 0.99, respectively). Conclusions: Although BCR-ABL transcript level at 3 month may predict long-term outcome of pts with CML treated with TKIs, this represents a static, one-time measure. Assessing the response at 6 months of pts with poor response at 3 months may provide a better predictor of long term outcome. Disclosures: Cortes: Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy, Research Funding; Ariad: Consultancy, Research Funding.

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Predictive role of early recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cryoballoon ablation

EP Europace ◽

10.1093/europace/euaa239 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (12) ◽

pp. 1798-1804 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Giuseppe Stabile ◽

Saverio Iacopino ◽

Roberto Verlato ◽

Giuseppe Arena ◽

Paolo Pieragnoli ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Strong Predictor ◽

Early Recurrence ◽

Cryoballoon Ablation ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Group B ◽

Af Recurrence

Abstract Aims The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the predictors of early recurrences of atrial fibrillation (ERAF) after cryoballoon (CB) ablation and to evaluate whether ERAF correlate with the long-term outcome. Methods and results Three thousand, six hundred, and eighty-one consecutive patients (59.9 ± 10.5 years, female 26.5%, and 74.3% paroxysmal AF) were included in the analysis. Atrial fibrillation recurrence, lasting at least 30 s, was collected during and after the 3-month blanking period. Three-hundred and sixteen patients (8.6%) (Group A) had ERAF during the blanking period, and 3365 patients (Group B) had no ERAF. Persistent AF and number of tested anti-arrhythmic drugs ≥2 resulted as significant predictors of ERAF. After a mean follow-up of 16.8 ± 16.4 months, 923/3681 (25%) patients had at least one AF recurrence. The observed freedom from AF recurrence, at 24-month follow-up from procedure, was 25.7% and 64.8% in Groups A and B, respectively (P < 0.001). ERAF, persistent AF, and number of tested anti-arrhythmic drugs ≥2 resulted as significant predictors of AF. In a propensity score matching, the logistic model showed that ERAF 1 month after ablation are the best predictor of long-term AF recurrence (P = 0.042). Conclusion In patients undergoing CB ablation for AF, ERAF are rare and are a strong predictor of AF recurrence in the follow-up, above all when occur >30 days after the ablation.

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Long Term Outcome of Anorexia Nervosa

Behaviour Change ◽

10.1017/s0813483900005581 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 93-102 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Lyndall M. Jones ◽

W.K. Halford ◽

Roger T. Dooley

Keyword(s):

Anorexia Nervosa ◽

Strong Predictor ◽

Significant Degree ◽

Self Report ◽

Social Maladjustment ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Clinically Significant

The long-term outcome (mean follow-up period 5.7 years) for 20 patients with anorexia nervosa was assessed on a comprehensive battery of self-report inventories and a structured clinical interview. Two thirds of the cohort were improved to a clinically significant degree at follow-up, but the majority still showed higher than normal scores on inventories of anorexic symptomatology, social maladjustment, anxiety, and hostility. The remaining one third were unimproved and demonstrated a broad range of impairment including distorted attitudes toward eating, overconcern about body shape, poor social functioning, high levels of anxiety, hostility, depression, and external locus of control. Moderate to strong correlations were found across outcome measures. Longer duration of eating difficulties before presentation was a strong predictor of poor long-term outcome, suggesting a chronic relapsing form of the disorder occurred in a subgroup of patients.

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Predicting the long-term outcome of schizophrenia

Psychological Medicine ◽

10.1017/s0033291700037715 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 26 (4) ◽

pp. 697-705 ◽

Cited By ~ 91

Author(s):

G. Harrison ◽

T. Croudace ◽

P. Mason ◽

C. Glazebrook ◽

I. Medley

Keyword(s):

Strong Predictor ◽

Social Activity ◽

Predictive Ability ◽

Female Gender ◽

Favourable Outcome ◽

Extended Model ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Icd 10

SynopsisPredictors of long-term (13 year) outcome of schizophrenia are reported for a representative cohort of ‘treated incidence’ patients ascertained on their first contact with Nottingham psychiatric services between 1978–80. An initial (baseline) model including previously reported predictors of 2-year outcome (age, gender, ever married, acuteness of onset) and length of untreated illness was used to predict a range of outcome measures covering the domains of disability, psychopathology, hospitalization, employment, social activity, and global outcome. This model demonstrated significant prognostic ability across all non-hospitalization outcomes under both ICD-10 and ICD-9 diagnoses of schizophrenia, but was attenuated under broad (ICD-9 and CATEGO S, P or O) and restrictive (S+) diagnostic classifications. Female gender predicted more favourable outcome under all diagnostic classifications except S+. In an extended analysis, the addition of initial 2-year course type substantially increased the prognostic ability of the model under all diagnostic classifications and enabled over 30% of the variance in global ratings of disability and symptoms to be predicted. In this extended model female gender predicted more favourable outcome over and above the effect of course type, across most domains under ICD-10, and for disability and psychopathology under other diagnostic classifications. The inclusion of measures of psychopathology at the time of first assessment, pre-morbid functioning, and duration of index admission conferred only marginal additional predictive ability for respective outcomes in the domains of psychopathology, social activity, employment and hospitalization. Hospitalization during the past year was the most difficult outcome to predict under any model suggesting that resource utilization represents the ‘administrative outcome’ of schizophrenia and serves as a poor proxy for broader concerns in the era of community care. These data demonstrate that key demographic variables and the mode of onset influence the long-term course of schizophrenia, but that early course type is a particularly strong predictor.

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