scholarly journals QUANTILE DOUBLE AUTOREGRESSION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Qianqian Zhu ◽  
Guodong Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Conditional Quantile ◽  
New Model ◽  
Conditional Quantiles ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Portmanteau Tests ◽  
Strict Stationarity

Many financial time series have varying structures at different quantile levels, and also exhibit the phenomenon of conditional heteroskedasticity at the same time. However, there is presently no time series model that accommodates both of these features. This paper fills the gap by proposing a novel conditional heteroskedastic model called “quantile double autoregression”. The strict stationarity of the new model is derived, and self-weighted conditional quantile estimation is suggested. Two promising properties of the original double autoregressive model are shown to be preserved. Based on the quantile autocorrelation function and self-weighting concept, three portmanteau tests are constructed to check the adequacy of the fitted conditional quantiles. The finite sample performance of the proposed inferential tools is examined by simulation studies, and the need for use of the new model is further demonstrated by analyzing the S&P500 Index.

LONG MEMORY IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES DATA WITH NON-GAUSSIAN DISTURBANCES

2003 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 119-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUIS A. GIL-ALANA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Critical Values ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Non Gaussian

In this article we propose the use of a version of the tests of Robinson [32] for testing unit and fractional roots in financial time series data. The tests have a standard null limit distribution and they are the most efficient ones in the context of Gaussian disturbances. We compute finite sample critical values based on non-Gaussian disturbances and the power properties of the tests are compared when using both, the asymptotic and the finite-sample (Gaussian and non-Gaussian) critical values. The tests are applied to the monthly structure of several stock market indexes and the results show that the if the underlying I(0) disturbances are white noise, the confidence intervals include the unit root; however, if they are autocorrelated, the unit root is rejected in favour of smaller degrees of integration. Using t-distributed critical values, the confidence intervals for the non-rejection values are generally narrower than with the asymptotic or than with the Gaussian finite-sample ones, suggesting that they may better describe the time series behaviour of the data examined.

scholarly journals A Maximal Tail Dependence-Based Clustering Procedure for Financial Time Series and Its Applications in Portfolio Selection

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Liu ◽  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Chen Yang ◽  
Wenjun Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Lower Tail ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Mean Variance Portfolio ◽  
Mean Variance

In this paper, we propose a clustering procedure of financial time series according to the coefficient of weak lower-tail maximal dependence (WLTMD). Due to the potential asymmetry of the matrix of WLTMD coefficients, the clustering procedure is based on a generalized weighted cuts method instead of the dissimilarity-based methods. The performance of the new clustering procedure is evaluated by simulation studies. Finally, we illustrate that the optimal mean-variance portfolio constructed based on the resulting clusters manages to reduce the risk of simultaneous large losses effectively.

scholarly journals Detecting Predictable Segments of Chaotic Financial Time Series via Neural Network

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 823
Author(s):  
Tianle Zhou ◽  
Chaoyi Chu ◽  
Chaobin Xu ◽  
Weihao Liu ◽  
Hao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Phase Point ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Financial Time

In this study, a new idea is proposed to analyze the financial market and detect price fluctuations, by integrating the technology of PSR (phase space reconstruction) and SOM (self organizing maps) neural network algorithms. The prediction of price and index in the financial market has always been a challenging and significant subject in time-series studies, and the prediction accuracy or the sensitivity of timely warning price fluctuations plays an important role in improving returns and avoiding risks for investors. However, it is the high volatility and chaotic dynamics of financial time series that constitute the most significantly influential factors affecting the prediction effect. As a solution, the time series is first projected into a phase space by PSR, and the phase tracks are then sliced into several parts. SOM neural network is used to cluster the phase track parts and extract the linear components in each embedded dimension. After that, LSTM (long short-term memory) is used to test the results of clustering. When there are multiple linear components in the m-dimension phase point, the superposition of these linear components still remains the linear property, and they exhibit order and periodicity in phase space, thereby providing a possibility for time series prediction. In this study, the Dow Jones index, Nikkei index, China growth enterprise market index and Chinese gold price are tested to determine the validity of the model. To summarize, the model has proven itself able to mark the unpredictable time series area and evaluate the unpredictable risk by using 1-dimension time series data.

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