A New Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Two-Parameter Gamma Distribution

This paper proposes a new goodness-of-fit for the two-parameter distribution. It is based on a function of squared distances between empirical and theoretical quantiles of a set of observations being hypothesized to have come from the gamma distribution. The critical values of the proposed statistic are evaluated through extensive simulations of the unit-scaled gamma distributions and computations. The empirical powers of the statistic are obtained and compared with some well-known tests for the gamma distribution, and the results show that the proposed statistic can be recommended as a test for the gamma distribution.

“A Bias Recognized Is a Bias Sterilized”: The Effects of a Bias in Forecast Evaluation

Are traditional tests of forecast evaluation well behaved when the competing (nested) model is biased? No, they are not. In this paper, we show analytically and via simulations that, under the null hypothesis of no encompassing, a bias in the nested model may severely distort the size properties of traditional out-of-sample tests in economic forecasting. Not surprisingly, these size distortions depend on the magnitude of the bias and the persistency of the additional predictors. We consider two different cases: (i) There is both in-sample and out-of-sample bias in the nested model. (ii) The bias is present exclusively out-of-sample. To address the former case, we propose a modified encompassing test (MENC-NEW) robust to a bias in the null model. Akin to the ENC-NEW statistic, the asymptotic distribution of our test is a functional of stochastic integrals of quadratic Brownian motions. While this distribution is not pivotal, we can easily estimate the nuisance parameters. To address the second case, we derive the new asymptotic distribution of the ENC-NEW, showing that critical values may differ remarkably. Our Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the MENC-NEW (and the ENC-NEW with adjusted critical values) is reasonably well-sized even when the ENC-NEW (with standard critical values) exhibits rejections rates three times higher than the nominal size.

The probabilities of type I and II error of null of cointegration tests: A Monte Carlo comparison

This paper evaluates the performance of eight tests with null hypothesis of cointegration on basis of probabilities of type I and II errors using Monte Carlo simulations. This study uses a variety of 132 different data generations covering three cases of deterministic part and four sample sizes. The three cases of deterministic part considered are: absence of both intercept and linear time trend, presence of only the intercept and presence of both the intercept and linear time trend. It is found that all of tests have either larger or smaller probabilities of type I error and concluded that tests face either problems of over rejection or under rejection, when asymptotic critical values are used. It is also concluded that use of simulated critical values leads to controlled probability of type I error. So, the use of asymptotic critical values may be avoided, and the use of simulated critical values is highly recommended. It is found and concluded that the simple LM test based on KPSS statistic performs better than rest for all specifications of deterministic part and sample sizes.

USE OF QUANTITATIVE RATIOS FROM THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN PREDICTING PRICE BUBBLES ON THE HOUSING MARKET

One of the main causes of the economic and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – 2012 in some European countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland was the bursting of the residential market price bubble that was formed in the previous period. In this paper, a specific methodology of indicator analysis of the System of National Accounts and other data has been analyzed if it can help identify and prevent forming of some possible future price bubbles at the residential market, and therefore negative macroeconomic consequences of their bursting. Comparative indicator analysis and critical values suggest measurements of excessive construction activity that led to forming of price bubbles on the residential market. Econometric analysis has shown that it is not possible to establish critical values as variable of interest is not statistically significant.

IoT Based Patient Health Monitoring System

An IoT based health monitoring system records the patient’s heart beat, body temperature, oxygen levels of blood etc. It can also be used to inform the timing of medication and provides live monitoring of health condition of patient to the doctor available in his chamber. It also sends an SMS alert whenever the health parameter readings go beyond critical values. Keywords: Heart beat, Temperature, Oxygen Levels, Medication timing, SMS alert.

On the sharpness of assumptions in the Federer theorem

The Federer theorem deals with the “massiveness” of the set of critical values for a t t -smooth map acting from R m \mathbb R^m to R n \mathbb R^n : it claims that the Hausdorff p p -measure of this set is zero for certain p p . If n ≥ m n\ge m , it has long been known that the assumption of that theorem relating the parameters m , n , t , p m,n,t,p is sharp. Here it is shown by an example that this assumption is also sharp for n > m n>m .

An objective method for predicting occurrence of pre-monsoon (March-May) thunderstorm events over Delhi using stability indices

In this paper an attempt has been made to investigate different stability indices in relation to the occurrence of thunderstorms in order to determine the critical values of these indices for Delhi (28.35° N / 77.12° E) using pre monsoon data for the years 1999 - 2004. The study shows that the critical values of Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), K Index (KI), Total Totals Index (TTI), and Sweat Index (SWI) are respectively < 2 °C, < 0 °C, > 24 °C, > 44.5 °C and > 100 for the thunderstorm to occur over Delhi. The corresponding common critical ranges of Lifted Condensation Level (LCL), Level of Free Convection (LFC), Equilibrium Level (EL) and Precipitable Water (PW) are respectively 923 hPa – 695 hPa, 856 hPa – 504 hPa, 545 hPa – 109 hPa and 18 mm – 54 mm. Testing of critical values of indices and the corresponding common critical ranges of LCL, LFC, EL and PW during pre-monsoon seasons of the years 2005 and 2006 shows that they are matching well with the respective critical values/ranges in most of the thunderstorm days.

Modified instability index of the troposphere associated with thunderstorms / nor'westers over Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season

The present study is an attempt to study different Modified Stability Indices in relation to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms/nor’westers in order to find out the critical values of different modified indices favorable for the formation of thunderstorms in Bangladesh. Computations have also been made for the stations in and around Bangladesh for studying the spatial distribution of the modified stability indices. The Modified Instability Indices such as Modified Cross Total Index (MCT), Modified Vertical Total Index (MVT), Modified Total Totals Index (MTT), Modified SWEAT Index (MSWI), Modified K-Index (MKI) and Modified Energy Index (MEI) show greater instability of the troposphere in the morning as compared to CT, VT, TT, SWI, KI and EI. The critical values of different modified instability indices at 0000 UTC over Dhaka are: MCT >= 20° C, MVT >= 26° C, MTT >= 46° C, MSWI > 300, MKI >= 40° C and MEI < -6 joules/gm respectively for the nor’westers to occur in Bangladesh. The spatial distributions of modified stability indices have revealed that maximum instability lies over the area of surface low pressure especially over Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh at 0000 UTC on the dates of occurrence of nor’westers. Nor’westers occur at theeastern end of the maximum instability. For severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity, the critical values of different modified instability indices at 0000 UTC over Dhaka are: MCT >= 20° C, MVT >= 28° C, MTT >= 50° C, MSWI >= 500, MKI >= 42° C and MEI < -8 joules/gm respectively for the nor’westers to occur in Bangladesh.

Сomputer system for alerting indoor microclimate critical values

An alert system has been studied, in which sensor data can be collected and analyzed for further processing and action. Notifications are generated when data is compared against certain criteria. The ESP8266 microcontroller has been chosen as the basic device for implementing such a system, as this Espressif controller is a highly integrated Wi-Fi SoC solution that meets the demands of the cyberphysical systems industry in low power consumption, compactness and reliability. This solution is one of the most effective for the alert system. On the basis of this microcontroller the technical means of the computer system and the functional software for realization of functions of monitoring and the notification of critical values of a microclimate indoors are designed. The architecture of the computer system is studied. The choice of the main components of the hardware part of the system is substantiated, the element base is considered. A detailed scheme of the software operation algorithm is offered, as well as the results of the developed computer system for alerting the critical values of the indoor microclimate are demonstrated.