Clashes Involving National Popular Vote, Hare (“RCV”), Maine, Alaska

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Richard F. Potthoff
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Plurality Vote ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Election System ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Election Results

ABSTRACT Apparently unnoticed by its advocates, a prominent effort to improve the troubled US presidential-election system—the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)—is on a collision course with another effort at electoral change—“ranked-choice voting” (RCV, known previously by less ambiguous names). The NPVIC is a clever device intended, without constitutional amendment, to elect as president the nationwide popular-vote winner (i.e., the plurality-vote winner) rather than the electoral-vote winner. Election results in 2000, 2016, and 2020 enhanced its support. However, the (constitutional) ability of even one state to replace its plurality voting with another voting system causes the popular-vote total posited for the NPVIC to be undefined, thereby rendering the NPVIC unusable. Maine and Alaska recently switched from plurality voting to RCV for presidential elections. Consequently, tangled results and turmoil could occur with the NPVIC. To improve presidential elections, replacing plurality voting with other systems appears to be more sensible than pursuing the NPVIC.

Electronic Voting System

2015 ◽  
pp. 557-570
Author(s):  
Dashbalbar Gangabaatar
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Mixed System ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Election System ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Electronic Voting System ◽  
First Time

Mongolia introduced a new electronic voting system for the first time for the 2012 parliamentary election. E-voting empowers citizens by making voting simpler and providing better opportunities for certain groups of citizens to participate in the election process. The electoral reform was one of the major steps the parliament carried out in order to restore public trust lost in the violent protests against the 2008 parliamentary election results. A free, transparent, and fair electoral system was important to correct the fraud in the old election system. This chapter examines the effectiveness of the mixed system of election, the electronic voting system, and other changes to the electoral system in Mongolia.

Electoral Reform and the Electronic Voting System

2020 ◽  
pp. 182-204
Author(s):  
Dashbalbar Gangabaatar
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Mixed System ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Election System ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Electronic Voting System

Mongolia introduced a new electronic voting system for the first time for the 2012 parliamentary election. E-voting empowers citizens by making voting simpler and providing better opportunities for certain groups of citizens to participate in the election process. The electoral reform was one of the major steps the parliament carried out in order to restore public trust lost in the violent protests against the 2008 parliamentary election results. A free, transparent, and fair electoral system was important to correct the fraud in the old election system. This chapter examines the effectiveness of the mixed system of election, the electronic voting system, the constitutionality of the electoral systems, and other changes to the electoral system in Mongolia.

The 2016 Election: Like 1888 but not 1876 or 2000

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mathieu Martin ◽  
Ashley Piggins
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
House Size

ABSTRACTDonald J. Trump won the 2016 US presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary R. Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888, and 2000. In earlier work, we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the US House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003, 721–5) in their paper, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size.” A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the popular vote winner in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. We show that Trump’s victory in 2016 is like Harrison’s in 1888 and unlike Hayes’s in 1876 and Bush’s in 2000. This article updates our previous work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.

scholarly journals Electoral College bias and the 2020 presidential election

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (45) ◽  
pp. 27940-27944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Karl Sigman ◽  
Linan Yao
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Republican Candidate

Donald Trump’s 2016 win despite failing to carry the popular vote has raised concern that 2020 would also see a mismatch between the winner of the popular vote and the winner of the Electoral College. This paper shows how to forecast the electoral vote in 2020 taking into account the unknown popular vote and the configuration of state voting in 2016. We note that 2016 was a statistical outlier. The potential Electoral College bias was slimmer in the past and not always favoring the Republican candidate. We show that in past presidential elections, difference among states in their presidential voting is solely a function of the states’ most recent presidential voting (plus new shocks); earlier history does not matter. Based on thousands of simulations, our research suggests that the bias in 2020 probably will favor Trump again but to a lesser degree than in 2016. The range of possible outcomes is sufficiently wide, however, to even include some possibility that Joseph Biden could win in the Electoral College while barely losing the popular vote.

Czech Presidential Elections 2013

ICL Journal ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Molek
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
First Year ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Republic

AbstractThe article describes the reasons for the constitutional amendment to the Czech Constitution turning the traditional indirect elections of the President of the Republic into direct popular vote. It analyses the shortcomings of the constitutional amendment as well as of the Act on Presidential Elections. In the two parts that follow, it addresses the two main problems of the presidential elections: the registration of the candidates and the elec­tion campaign, and analyses the milestone decisions of the Supreme Administrative Court regarding these two questions. Finally, the author reflects the first year of presidency of Miloš Zeman and his questionable attempts to broaden the scope of presidential competences by innovative interpretation of the Czech Constitution.

The Popular Vote and Misfires in the Electoral College

2019 ◽  
pp. 93-121
Author(s):  
Robert M. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Changing Demographics ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Potential Challenge

This chapter examines the relationship among the electoral vote, the popular vote, and legitimacy in presidential elections. The Framers sought a process that preserved federalism and yielded candidates with broad appeal across the country. Forty percent of all presidential contests can be classified as hairbreadth elections (decided by less than 75,000 votes). Twenty percent of all elections have been decided by just 10,000 votes. On six occasions, the candidate winning the popular vote failed to win the Electoral College vote. These so-called misfire elections have occurred in two of the last five campaigns and have the potential to occur with greater frequency given changing demographics. The divergence between the Electoral College vote and the popular vote represents a potential challenge to legitimacy for incoming presidents. Specific attention is devoted to how misfire elections may have affected the agenda of incoming presidents.

The Keys to the White House

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan J. Lichtman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
President Obama ◽  
White House ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Us Presidential Election

The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

The Keys to the White House

2012 ◽  
pp. 214-225
Author(s):  
Allan J. Lichtman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
President Obama ◽  
White House ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Us Presidential Election

The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

scholarly journals The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Nicolas Berlinski ◽  
Margaret Doyle ◽  
Andrew M. Guess ◽  
Gabrielle Levy ◽  
Benjamin Lyons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Support For Democracy ◽  
Corrosive Effect ◽  
Election System ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Fact Checking ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Voter Fraud ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract Political elites sometimes seek to delegitimize election results using unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Most recently, Donald Trump sought to overturn his loss in the 2020 US presidential election by falsely alleging widespread fraud. Our study provides new evidence demonstrating the corrosive effect of fraud claims like these on trust in the election system. Using a nationwide survey experiment conducted after the 2018 midterm elections – a time when many prominent Republicans also made unsubstantiated fraud claims – we show that exposure to claims of voter fraud reduces confidence in electoral integrity, though not support for democracy itself. The effects are concentrated among Republicans and Trump approvers. Worryingly, corrective messages from mainstream sources do not measurably reduce the damage these accusations inflict. These results suggest that unsubstantiated voter-fraud claims undermine confidence in elections, particularly when the claims are politically congenial, and that their effects cannot easily be mitigated by fact-checking.

Electronic Voting System

2014 ◽  
pp. 284-299
Author(s):  
Dashbalbar Gangabaatar
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Mixed System ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Election System ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Electronic Voting System ◽  
First Time

Mongolia introduced a new electronic voting system for the first time for the 2012 parliamentary election. E-voting empowers citizens by making voting simpler and providing better opportunities for certain groups of citizens to participate in the election process. The electoral reform was one of the major steps the parliament carried out in order to restore public trust lost in the violent protests against the 2008 parliamentary election results. A free, transparent, and fair electoral system was important to correct the fraud in the old election system. This chapter examines the effectiveness of the mixed system of election, the electronic voting system, and other changes to the electoral system in Mongolia.

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