NYSE Sector Returns and Political Cycles

This study scrutinizes the day-of-the-week effect anomaly in the context of market and industry analysis of the Pakistan stock exchange. For this purpose, daily closing prices of KSE-100, KSE-30, and KSE-All Share Index from January 01, 2009 to December 31, 2018, have been used. Similarly, sector returns are also calculated, taking average log-returns of selected sample firms. To analyze the data ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, general generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) as well as asymmetric threshold GARCH (TGARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models have been employed to model the leverage effect of good and bad news on market volatility. The results indicate the evidence of daily seasonality, with significant Monday and Wednesday effect in PSX indices returns as well as in most of the industry returns. Monday is found to be the day with the highest average returns with the highest return volatility. The findings of the study reveal that there exists a weak form of inefficiency in the Pakistan Stock Market, which implies the possibility of earning abnormal returns by investors using timing strategies. In terms of return predictability, this study is essential for international and domestic investors and it may affect their investment strategy and return management. The results might be interesting to the financial experts as they ponder the available conditions in the capital market for financial decision-making. This study is one of its first kind that includes both indices as well as industry returns for analysis of manufacturing industries in Pakistan stock exchange.

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Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0203390 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. e0203390

Author(s):

Frank Bohn

Keyword(s):

Rational Expectations ◽

Political Cycles

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Influence of political turbulence on economic development of Ukraine

ED/2019/1 - The economic discourse ◽

10.36742/2410-0919-2019-1-3 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 22-36

Author(s):

Taras Marshalok

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Development Strategy ◽

Economic Situation ◽

Political Factors ◽

Political Transformations ◽

Political Cycles ◽

Economic Sphere ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

Economic Imbalances

Introduction. The influence of political factors on economic processes in Ukraine is extremely important. Changes in political elites, their use of certain social and economic instruments, types and models, affect the state of social and economic development of the country in the short, medium and long term. That is why research and analysis of the economic situation in political cycles is an important issue that needs to be studied. Methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research are the fundamental positions of modern economic theory, scientific works of scientists on the problems of economic cycles. The general development of the Ukrainian economy under the influence of political factors is analyzed in the course of the research on the basis of the historical approach, as well as the method of analysis and synthesis used to determine the influence of political cycles on the development of the country's economy, abstraction and synthesis, comparison and analogy when comparing the results obtained by researchers and establishing the possibility of their use for carrying out tasks for the prevention of economic imbalances. Results. The article deals with the influence of political cycles on the economic situation, the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and economic development in Ukraine. The main problems of economic policy are outlined and recommendations on elimination of economic imbalances and increase of welfare of citizens, increase of efficiency of fiscal measures in Ukraine are developed. It has been determined that in order to overcome the above-mentioned problems in the economic sphere in the process of elaboration of the economic development strategy for the long-term perspective, it is necessary to involve experts from among the scholars, business circles, expert analytical organizations in forming the directions of implementation of fiscal policy in the long-term perspective, as well as to ensure transparent and open relations. between state authorities and other actors in the social and economic sphere. Discussion. The study of political transformations and the analysis of their impact on economic fluctuations will enable future researchers to use better the results of their work to prevent economic imbalances in Ukraine. Keywords: prime minister, politics, economy, gross domestic product, taxes, expenditures, deficit, public debt, inflation, personal incomes, currency rate.

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Densidade macroestratégica na gestão pública municipal no Brasil: uma abordagem analítico-metodológica de PPAS e de variáveis político-administrativas

RACE - Revista de Administração Contabilidade e Economia ◽

10.18593/race.v16i3.13804 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 911-932

Author(s):

Antonio Roberto Bono Olenscki ◽

Fernando de Souza Coelho ◽

Valdemir Aparecido Pires ◽

Ana Cláudia Fernandes Terence ◽

Ursula Dias Peres

Keyword(s):

Research Agenda ◽

Analytical Approach ◽

Municipal Governments ◽

Institutional Leadership ◽

Academic Production ◽

Conflict And Cooperation ◽

Strategic Process ◽

Political Cycles ◽

Institutional Learning

Neste artigo objetivou-se propor uma abordagem analítico-metodológica para se compreender o processo da estratégia em governos municipais no Brasil sob dois níveis que se complementam. O primeiro nível corresponde a estudos longitudinais para a apuração em termos comparados entre governos e em distintos períodos quanto ao grau de compliance dos Planos Plurianuais (PPAs) na estruturação e na execução orçamentárias e à qualidade dos seus elementos estratégicos no que se refere a objetivos, justificativas, metas físicas e financeiras e a indicadores de políticas públicas e de gestão. Trata-se de uma proposta analítica sobre um tema cuja produção acadêmica nacional carece de sistematização, categorias analíticas ou taxonômicas. O segundo nível – estudos de caso em profundidade – direciona-se para a análise dos processos de aprendizado institucional, de conflito e cooperação entre instâncias políticas e administrativas, de transformação, adaptação ou enraizamento de práticas organizacionais de caráter estratégico e de movimentos estratégicos frequentes versus acomodação a ditames e processos rígidos pelos PPAs. Essa segunda apreciação propositiva realiza-se em análises de dimensões como: ação/nuance de governo, liderança(s) institucional(is) e memória institucional, permeabilidade organizacional aos cidadãos, ciclo político-eleitoral, mensuração de necessidades e recursos, alternativas de recursos financeiros e mecanismos de gestão tático-operacional e de projetos. A principal contribuição que se pretende é a instituição de uma agenda de pesquisa sobre gestão estratégica no setor público brasileiro em governos subnacionais, com o preenchimento de lacunas na produção acadêmica sobre PPAs e no estabelecimento de variáveis compreensivas dos contornos político-administrativos e de elementos de empoderamento da estratégia na administração pública municipal.Palavras-chave: Estratégia. Governos municipais. Plano Plurianual (PPA). Abstract This paper proposed a methodological and analytical approach to comprehend the strategic process in municipal governments in Brazil under two complementary levels of studies. The first one refers to longitudinal studies to verify, in compared perspective of different governments and political terms, in what extent “Pluriannual Plans (PPAs)” are complied to the annual budgetary construction and execution, as well as the quality of its strategic elements, such as general and specific objectives, justifications, goals, and management and policy indicators. It is an analytical proposal in an area of studies lacking in systematization, and in taxonomic and analytical categories. The second level – in depth case studies – engages into the analysis of institutional learning, conflict and cooperation between administrative and political agencies, rooting, adaptive and transformative organizational strategic practices, and frequent strategic movements versus PPA’s rigid processes accommodation. This second level of appreciation offers studies on dimensions such as: government actions/nuances, institutional leadership and institutional memory, organizational permeability to citizens, political cycles, resources and needs measurements, efforts on financing designed policies, and tactical-operational and project oriented mechanisms of management. The main intended contribution is to create a research agenda related to strategic management in the Brazilian subnational governments, filling gaps in the academic production about PPAs and establishing understandable and comprehensive variables of political-administrative outlines, and elements of municipal strategic empowerment.Keywords: Strategy. Municipal governments. Pluriannual Plan (PPA)

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