scholarly journals Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean

Author(s):  
Y. Kuleshov ◽  
R. Fawcett ◽  
L. Qi ◽  
B. Trewin ◽  
D. Jones ◽  
...  
2018 ◽  
Vol 114 (11/12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Fitchett

The IBTrACS global best track data set endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization provides a valuable global record of tropical cyclone genesis, track and intensity, and spans 1842 to the present. The record is significantly more robust from the late 1970s onwards, as it is supported by satellite imagery. These records indicate that the first tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean to intensify to CAT5 status did so in 1994. This date is significantly later than the first CAT5 storms recorded in the IBTrACS database for the Atlantic Ocean (1924) and the North Pacific (1951) recorded from ship records, and half a decade later than those of the North Indian Ocean (1989) and South Pacific (1988), captured from satellite imagery. Following this late emergence, in the period 1990–2000, eight CAT5 tropical cyclones were recorded for the South Indian Ocean. A further four have been recorded for the period 2010–2015. This recent emergence of tropical cyclones attaining category five intensity in the South Indian Ocean is of significance for the forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and the anticipation of storm damage for the developing economies that characterise the region. Although an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is frequently projected under global climate change scenarios, the dynamics for the South Indian Ocean have remained poorly understood. Notable are early results indicating an increased frequency and poleward migration of these CAT5 storms, concurrent with a poleward migration in the position of the 26.5 °C, 28 °C and 29 °C sea surface temperature isotherms in the South Indian Ocean. Significance: Category 5 tropical cyclones, the strongest category of storms, have only recently emerged in the South Indian Ocean. Since 1989, their frequency of occurrence has increased. This increase poses a heightened risk of storm damage for the South Indian Ocean Island States and the countries of the southern African subcontinent as a result of the strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with these storms, and the large radial extent at category 5 strength.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1648-1658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanhong Guan ◽  
Jieshun Zhu ◽  
Bohua Huang ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
James L. Kinter III

Abstract Evaluating the climate hindcasts for 1982–2009 from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), this study identifies substantial areas of high prediction skill of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific. The skill is the highest in the extratropical oceans on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and it is only slightly lower than that for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Two regions with the highest prediction skills in the South Pacific in both the CFSv2 and persistence hindcasts coincide with the active centers of opposite signs in the South Pacific Ocean dipole (SPOD) mode, a seesaw between the subtropical and extratropical SST in the South Pacific with a strong phase locking to austral summer. Interestingly, the CFSv2 prediction exhibits skillful predictions made three seasons ahead, more superior to the persistence forecast, suggesting significant dynamical predictability of the SPOD. An austral “spring predictability barrier” is noted in both the dynamical and persistence hindcasts. An analysis of the observational and model data suggests that the SPOD mode is significantly associated with ENSO, as an oceanic response to the atmospheric planetary wave trains forced by the anomalous atmospheric heating in the western Pacific. Although previous studies have demonstrated that the pattern of subtropical SST dipole is ubiquitous in the Southern Ocean, the SPOD has been least known and studied, compared with its counterparts in the south Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Since the SPOD is the most predictable oceanic mode in the whole Southern Hemisphere, its climate effects for local and remote regions should be further studied.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 1915-1922 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Maes ◽  
N. Grima ◽  
B. Blanke ◽  
E. Martinez ◽  
T. Paviet-Salomon ◽  
...  

Tellus ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 26 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 136-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. W. Swinnerton ◽  
R. A. Lamontagne

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 112535
Author(s):  
Martin Thiel ◽  
Bárbara Barrera Lorca ◽  
Luis Bravo ◽  
Iván A. Hinojosa ◽  
Hugo Zeballos Meneses

Author(s):  
Keitapu Maamaatuaiahutapu ◽  
Jan Witting ◽  
Elodie Martinez

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