scholarly journals Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 114 (11/12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Fitchett
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Recent Emergence

The IBTrACS global best track data set endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization provides a valuable global record of tropical cyclone genesis, track and intensity, and spans 1842 to the present. The record is significantly more robust from the late 1970s onwards, as it is supported by satellite imagery. These records indicate that the first tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean to intensify to CAT5 status did so in 1994. This date is significantly later than the first CAT5 storms recorded in the IBTrACS database for the Atlantic Ocean (1924) and the North Pacific (1951) recorded from ship records, and half a decade later than those of the North Indian Ocean (1989) and South Pacific (1988), captured from satellite imagery. Following this late emergence, in the period 1990–2000, eight CAT5 tropical cyclones were recorded for the South Indian Ocean. A further four have been recorded for the period 2010–2015. This recent emergence of tropical cyclones attaining category five intensity in the South Indian Ocean is of significance for the forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and the anticipation of storm damage for the developing economies that characterise the region. Although an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is frequently projected under global climate change scenarios, the dynamics for the South Indian Ocean have remained poorly understood. Notable are early results indicating an increased frequency and poleward migration of these CAT5 storms, concurrent with a poleward migration in the position of the 26.5 °C, 28 °C and 29 °C sea surface temperature isotherms in the South Indian Ocean. Significance: Category 5 tropical cyclones, the strongest category of storms, have only recently emerged in the South Indian Ocean. Since 1989, their frequency of occurrence has increased. This increase poses a heightened risk of storm damage for the South Indian Ocean Island States and the countries of the southern African subcontinent as a result of the strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with these storms, and the large radial extent at category 5 strength.

Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9960-9976 ◽  
Author(s):  
James P. Kossin ◽  
Timothy L. Olander ◽  
Kenneth R. Knapp
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Formal Analysis ◽  
P Value ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The South ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian

Abstract The historical global “best track” records of tropical cyclones extend back to the mid-nineteenth century in some regions, but formal analysis of these records is encumbered by temporal heterogeneities in the data. This is particularly problematic when attempting to detect trends in tropical cyclone metrics that may be attributable to climate change. Here the authors apply a state-of-the-art automated algorithm to a globally homogenized satellite data record to create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period 1982–2009, and utilize this record to investigate the robustness of trends found in the best-track data. In particular, the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) achieved by each reported storm is calculated and the frequency distribution of LMI is tested for changes over this period. To address the unique issues in regions around the Indian Ocean, which result from a discontinuity introduced into the satellite data in 1998, a direct homogenization procedure is applied in which post-1998 data are degraded to pre-1998 standards. This additional homogenization step is found to measurably reduce LMI trends, but the global trends in the LMI of the strongest storms remain positive, with amplitudes of around +1 m s−1 decade−1 and p value = 0.1. Regional trends, in m s−1 decade−1, vary from −2 (p = 0.03) in the western North Pacific, +1.7 (p = 0.06) in the south Indian Ocean, +2.5 (p = 0.09) in the South Pacific, to +8 (p < 0.001) in the North Atlantic.

The phosphate levels of the major surface currents of the Indian Ocean

1967 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
DJ Rochford
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Currents ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian ◽  
South West Monsoon

The principal surface currents of the north Indian Ocean are much richer in phosphate (greater than 0.25 �g-atom/l) than those of the south Indian Ocean (less than 0.15 �g-atom/I). In summer large areas of the surface waters of the south-east Indian Ocean have a very low phosphate content (less than 0.10 �g-atom/l). These waters are by far the lowest in phosphate of the whole Indian Ocean. Their salinity-temperature- phosphate relations show that waters from two regions, the South Equatorial Current in the north and the high salinity belt around 30-35� S., contribute to their formation. Waters of this high salinity belt are carried northward into the low phosphate region by the West Australian Current in summer. These high-salinity waters most probably form by evaporation of an upper 50-m mixed layer of waters of the south-east Atlantic drifting eastward in the south Indian Ocean at an average rate of 15 cm per sec. In the eastern Indian Ocean north of 10�S., surface phosphate levels in summer are governed by the circulation of the richer phosphate waters of the counter current. In winter the circulation of richer phosphate waters of the South-west Monsoon Current governs the phosphate level.

scholarly journals Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean

2010 ◽  
Vol 115 (D1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kuleshov ◽  
R. Fawcett ◽  
L. Qi ◽  
B. Trewin ◽  
D. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
South Pacific Ocean ◽  
South Indian

scholarly journals On the Leeuwin Current System and Its Linkage to Zonal Flows in the South Indian Ocean as Inferred from a Gridded Hydrography

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryo Furue ◽  
Kévin Guerreiro ◽  
Helen E. Phillips ◽  
Julian P. McCreary ◽  
Nathaniel L. Bindoff
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Current System ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Zonal Flows ◽  
Leeuwin Current ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe Leeuwin Current System (LCS) along the coast of Western Australia consists of the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current (LC), the equatorward-flowing Leeuwin Undercurrent (LUC), and neighboring flows in the south Indian Ocean (SIO). Using geostrophic currents obtained from a highly resolved (⅛°) hydrographic climatology [CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas (CARS)], this study describes the spatial structure and annual variability of the LC, LUC, and SIO zonal currents, estimates their transports, and identifies linkages among them. In CARS, the LC is supplied partly by water from the tropics (an annual mean of 0.3 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) but mostly by shallow (200 m) eastward flows in the SIO (4.7 Sv), and it loses water by downwelling across the bottom of this layer (3.4 Sv). The downwelling is so strong that, despite the large SIO inflow, the horizontal transport of the LC does not much increase to the south (from 0.3 Sv at 22°S to 1.5 Sv at 34°S). This LC transport is significantly smaller than previously reported. The LUC is supplied by water from south of Australia (0.2 Sv), by eastward inflow from the SIO south of 28°S (1.6 Sv), and by the downwelling from the LC (1.6 Sv) and in response strengthens northward, reaching a maximum near 28°S (3.4 Sv). North of 28°S it loses water by outflow into subsurface westward flow (−3.6 Sv between 28° and 22°S) and despite an additional downwelling from the LC (1.9 Sv), it decreases to the north (1.7 Sv at 22°S). The seasonality of the LUC is described for the first time.

Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
James I. Belanger ◽  
Peter J. Webster ◽  
Judith A. Curry ◽  
Mark T. Jelinek
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The North

Abstract This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical cyclone genesis, pregenesis and postgenesis track and intensity projections, and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false-alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead times of 1–7 days. In addition, VarEPS pregenesis track forecasts on average perform better than VarEPS postgenesis forecasts through 120 h and feature a total track error growth of 41 n mi day−1. VarEPS provides superior postgenesis track forecasts for lead times greater than 12 h compared to other models, including the Met Office global model (UKMET), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), and slightly lower track errors than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This paper concludes with a discussion of how VarEPS can provide much of this extended predictability within a probabilistic framework for the region.

scholarly journals An inverse model of the large scale circulation in the South Indian Ocean

2007 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sultan ◽  
H. Mercier ◽  
R.T. Pollard
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
South Indian

Impacts of ocean currents on the South Indian Ocean extratropical storm track through the relative wind effect

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-61
Author(s):  
Hyodae Seo ◽  
Hajoon Song ◽  
Larry W. O’Neill ◽  
Matthew R. Mazloff ◽  
Bruce D. Cornuelle
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Wind Effect ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Relative Wind

AbstractThis study examines the role of the relative wind (RW) effect (wind relative to ocean current) in the regional ocean circulation and extratropical storm track in the South Indian Ocean. Comparison of two high-resolution regional coupled model simulations with/without the RW effect reveals that the most conspicuous ocean circulation response is the significant weakening of the overly energetic anticyclonic standing eddy off Port Elizabeth, South Africa, a biased feature ascribed to upstream retroflection of the Agulhas Current (AC). This opens a pathway through which the AC transports the warm and salty water mass from the subtropics, yielding marked increases in sea surface temperature (SST), upward turbulent heat flux (THF), and meridional SST gradient in the Agulhas retroflection region. These thermodynamic and dynamic changes are accompanied by the robust strengthening of the local low-tropospheric baroclinicity and the baroclinic wave activity in the atmosphere. Examination of the composite lifecycle of synoptic-scale storms subjected to the high THF events indicates a robust strengthening of the extratropical storms far downstream. Energetics calculations for the atmosphere suggest that the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow is the chief source of increased eddy available potential energy, which is subsequently converted to eddy kinetic energy, providing for the growth of transient baroclinic waves. Overall, the results suggest that the mechanical and thermal air-sea interactions are inherently and inextricably linked together to substantially influence the extratropical storm tracks in the South Indian Ocean.

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