Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

High-Resolution Water Stable Isotope Ice-Core Record: Roosevelt Island, Antarctica

<p>This thesis presents a water-isotope (δD) record from 1900 to 2009 for the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core, Antarctica. Examination of the RICE isotope record with observation data (using global reanalysis and SST datasets) revealed details of the climate signal that is preserved within the full 763 m isotope record. RICE δD provides a proxy record, which captures the central tropical Pacific ENSO variability, the significant (p < 0.01) central Pacific δD-SST correlation pattern contain the Niño-4 SST region. Central tropical Pacific ENSO variability projects upon the Amundsen Sea region via a Pacific–South American pattern (PSA)-like teleconnection. RICE δD is primarily influenced by Amundsen Sea circulation, which coincides with the leading PSA pattern’s (PSA1) circulation focal point in the Amundsen Sea. Additionally, RICE regional physical setting (sheltered from direct impact from Amundsen Sea cyclones by WA orography) offers a unique setting, where enriched isotopes only are associated with one PSA1 polarity (El Niño, PSA1+, Amundsen Sea anticyclones). In contrast, during La Niña and Amundsen Sea cyclones, δD is depleted. Combined these settings, provides a compelling explanation to why RICE δD preserves PSA1 and ENSO variability. On interannual and seasonal time scales, the RICE δD variability is well-explained by the PSA teleconnections and their interactions over the Pacific sector. The influence from PSA2 on δD is strong during the beginning of the year (December–February, DJF). In contrast, the PSA1 influence is strong during the latter part of the year, peaking in spring (September–November, SON). The isotope record appears to preserve tropical Pacific El Niño-like interdecadal variability, particularly a decadal-signal from the central-Pacific (Niño-4 SST region) and from the Pacific-wide Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). On decadal-scales RICE δD is modulated by ENSO and Southern Annular Mode (SAM); when the correlation with SAM is active (during IPO+) δD appears to be in a depleted state and when the correlation with SAM breaks down (during IPO−) δD appears to be in a relatively enriched state. A RICE δD SST proxy reconstruction can potentially provide a record longer than the currently available observational datasets, allowing for examination of intrinsic decadal-scale tropical Pacific climate variability and its extratropical impact.</p>

High-Resolution Water Stable Isotope Ice-Core Record: Roosevelt Island, Antarctica

<p>This thesis presents a water-isotope (δD) record from 1900 to 2009 for the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core, Antarctica. Examination of the RICE isotope record with observation data (using global reanalysis and SST datasets) revealed details of the climate signal that is preserved within the full 763 m isotope record. RICE δD provides a proxy record, which captures the central tropical Pacific ENSO variability, the significant (p < 0.01) central Pacific δD-SST correlation pattern contain the Niño-4 SST region. Central tropical Pacific ENSO variability projects upon the Amundsen Sea region via a Pacific–South American pattern (PSA)-like teleconnection. RICE δD is primarily influenced by Amundsen Sea circulation, which coincides with the leading PSA pattern’s (PSA1) circulation focal point in the Amundsen Sea. Additionally, RICE regional physical setting (sheltered from direct impact from Amundsen Sea cyclones by WA orography) offers a unique setting, where enriched isotopes only are associated with one PSA1 polarity (El Niño, PSA1+, Amundsen Sea anticyclones). In contrast, during La Niña and Amundsen Sea cyclones, δD is depleted. Combined these settings, provides a compelling explanation to why RICE δD preserves PSA1 and ENSO variability. On interannual and seasonal time scales, the RICE δD variability is well-explained by the PSA teleconnections and their interactions over the Pacific sector. The influence from PSA2 on δD is strong during the beginning of the year (December–February, DJF). In contrast, the PSA1 influence is strong during the latter part of the year, peaking in spring (September–November, SON). The isotope record appears to preserve tropical Pacific El Niño-like interdecadal variability, particularly a decadal-signal from the central-Pacific (Niño-4 SST region) and from the Pacific-wide Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). On decadal-scales RICE δD is modulated by ENSO and Southern Annular Mode (SAM); when the correlation with SAM is active (during IPO+) δD appears to be in a depleted state and when the correlation with SAM breaks down (during IPO−) δD appears to be in a relatively enriched state. A RICE δD SST proxy reconstruction can potentially provide a record longer than the currently available observational datasets, allowing for examination of intrinsic decadal-scale tropical Pacific climate variability and its extratropical impact.</p>

Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (~400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and flavour, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4 year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 °C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most ‘El Niño-like’ mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude as in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more ‘La Niña-like’ mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement both with time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient, as well as reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

Nonlinear Forced Change and Nonergodicity: The Case of ENSO-Indian Monsoon and Global Precipitation Teleconnections

We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, a set of Earth system ensemble simulations under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing. The forced response of the teleconnection, or a characteristic of it, is defined as the time dependence of a correlation coefficient evaluated over the ensemble. We consider the temporal variability of spatial averages and that with respect to dominant spatial modes in the sense of Maximal Covariance Analysis, Canonical Correlation Analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis across the ensemble. A further representation of the teleconnection that we define here takes the point of view of the predictability of the spatiotemporal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. We find that the strengthening of the ENSO-IM teleconnection is robustly or consistently featured in view of various teleconnection representations, whether sea surface temperature (SST) or sea level pressure (SLP) is used to characterize ENSO, and both in the historical period and under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. It is found to be associated dominantly with the principal mode of ENSO variability. Concerning representations that involve an autonomous characterisation of the Pacific, in terms of a linear regression model, the main contributor to the strengthening is the regression coefficient, which can outcompete even a declining ENSO variability when it is represented by SLP. We also find that the forced change of the teleconnection is typically nonlinear by 1) formally rejecting the hypothesis that ergodicity holds, i.e., that expected values of temporal correlation coefficients with respect to the ensemble equal the ensemble-wise correlation coefficient itself, and also showing that 2) the trivial contributions of the forced changes in means and standard deviations are insignificant here. We also provide, in terms of the test statistics, global maps of the degree of nonlinearity/nonergodicity of the forced change of the teleconnection between local precipitation and ENSO.

Data-driven modeling decadal-to-centennial ENSO variability and its response to external forcing

&lt;p&gt;We investigate the decadal-to-centennial ENSO variability based on nonlinear data-driven stochastic modeling. We construct data-driven model of yearly Ni&amp;#241;o-3.4 indices reconstructed from paleoclimate proxies based on three different sea-surface temperature (SST) databases at the time interval from 1150 to 1995 [1]. The data-driven model is forced by the solar activity and CO2 concentration signals. We find the persistent antiphasing relationship between the solar forcing and Ni&amp;#241;o-3.4 SST on the bicentennial time scale. The dynamical mechanism of such a response is discussed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 20-62-46056)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;1. Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., &amp; Wittenberg, A. T. (2013). Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and Implications, Journal of Climate, 26(7), 2329-2352.&lt;/p&gt;

Nonlinear forced change and nonergodicity: The case of ENSO-Indian monsoon and global precipitation teleconnections

&lt;p&gt;We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Ni&amp;#241;o&amp;#8211;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, a set of Earth system ensemble simulations under historical and RCP forcing. The forced response of the teleconnection, or a characteristic of it, is defined as the time dependence of a correlation coefficient evaluated over the ensemble. We consider the temporal variability of spatial averages and that with respect to dominant spatial modes in the sense of Maximal Covariance Analysis, Canonical Correlation Analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis across the ensemble. A further representation of the teleconnection that we define here takes the point of view of the predictability of the complete spatiotemporal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. We find that the strengthening of the ENSO-IM teleconnection is robustly or consistently featured in view of various teleconnection representations, whether sea surface temperature (SST) or sea level pressure (SLP) is used to characterise ENSO, and both in the historical period and under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. It is found to be associated dominantly with the principal mode of ENSO variability. Concerning representations that involve an autonomous characterisation of the Pacific, in terms of a linear regression model, the main contributor to the strengthening} is the regression coefficient, which can outcompete even a declining ENSO variability when it is represented by SLP. We also find that the forced change of the teleconnection is typically nonlinear by (1) formally rejecting the hypothesis that ergodicity holds, i.e., that expected values of temporal correlation coefficients with respect to the ensemble equal the ensemble-wise correlation coefficient itself, and also showing that (2) the trivial contributions of the forced changes in means and standard deviations are insignificant here. We also provide, in terms of the test statistics, global maps of the degree of nonlinearity/nonergodicity of the forced change of the teleconnection between local precipitation and ENSO.&lt;/p&gt;

ENSO response to changes in the tropical Indian ocean temperature

&lt;p&gt;Since the start of the 21st century, El Ni&amp;#241;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability has changed, supporting generally weaker Central Pacific El Ni&amp;#241;o events. Recent studies suggest that stronger trade winds in the equatorial Pacific could be a key driving force contributing to this shift. One possible mechanism to drive such changes in the mean tropical Pacific climate state is the enhanced warming trends in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) relative to the rest of the tropics. TIO warming can affect the Walker circulation in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins by inducing quasi-stationary Kelvin and Rossby wave patterns. Using the latest coupled-model from Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM6), ensemble experiments are conducted to investigate the effect of TIO sea surface temperature (SST) on ENSO variability. Applying a weak SST nudging over the TIO region, in four ensemble experiments we change mean Indian ocean SST by -1.4&amp;#176;C, -0.7&amp;#176;C, +0.7&amp;#176;C, and +1.4&amp;#176;C and find that TIO warming changes the magnitude of the mean equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress proportionally to the imposed forcing, with stronger trades winds corresponding to a warmer TIO. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming experiments, relative to the control. While a stronger ENSO for weaker trade winds, associated with TIO cooling, is expected from previous studies, we argue that the ENSO strengthening for stronger trade winds, associated with TIO cooling, is related to the induced changes in ocean stratification. We illustrate this effect by computing different contributions to the Bjerknes stability index. Thus, our results suggest that the tropical Indian ocean temperatures are an important regulator of TIO mean state and ENSO dynamics.&lt;/p&gt;