Decision making under uncertainty: A comparison of simple scalability, fixed-sample, and sequential-sampling models.

Author(s):  
Jerome R. Busemeyer
1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itiel E. Dror ◽  
Beth Basola ◽  
Jerome R. Busemeyer

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas A. J. Berkowitsch ◽  
Joerg Rieskamp ◽  
Benjamin Scheibehenne

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reilly James Innes ◽  
Caroline Kuhne

Decision making is a vital aspect of our everyday functioning, from simple perceptual demands to more complex and meaningful decisions. The strategy adopted to make such decisions is often viewed as balancing elements of speed and caution, i.e. making fast or careful decisions. Using sequential sampling models to analyse decision making data can allow us to tease apart strategic differences, such as being more or less cautious, from processing differences, which would otherwise be indistinguishable in behavioural data. Our study used a multiple object tracking task where student participants and a highly skilled military group were compared on their ability to track several items at once. Using a mathematical model of decision making (the linear ballistic accumulator), we show the underpinnings of how two groups differ in performance. Results showed a large difference between the groups on accuracy, with the RAAF group outperforming students. An interaction effect was observed between groups and level of difficulty in response times, where RAAF response times slowed at a greater rate than the student group as difficulty increased. Model results indicated that the RAAF personnel were more cautious in their decisions than students, and had faster processing in some conditions. Our study shows the strength of sequential sampling models, as well as providing a first attempt at fitting a sequential sampling model to data from a multiple object tracking task.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul G. Middlebrooks ◽  
Bram B. Zandbelt ◽  
Gordon D. Logan ◽  
Thomas J. Palmeri ◽  
Jeffrey D. Schall

Perceptual decision-making, studied using two-alternative forced-choice tasks, is explained by sequential sampling models of evidence accumulation, which correspond to the dynamics of neurons in sensorimotor structures of the brain1 2. Response inhibition, studied using stop-signal (countermanding) tasks, is explained by a race model of the initiation or canceling of a response, which correspond to the dynamics of neurons in sensorimotor structures3 4. Neither standard model accounts for performance of the other task. Sequential sampling models incorporate response initiation as an uninterrupted non-decision time parameter independent of task-related variables. The countermanding race model does not account for the choice process. Here we show with new behavioral, neural and computational results that perceptual decision making of varying difficulty can be countermanded with invariant efficiency, that single prefrontal neurons instantiate both evidence accumulation and response inhibition, and that an interactive race between two GO and one STOP stochastic accumulator fits countermanding choice behavior. Thus, perceptual decision-making and response control, previously regarded as distinct mechanisms, are actually aspects of more flexible behavior supported by a common neural and computational mechanism. The identification of this aspect of decision-making with response production clarifies the component processes of decision-making.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kitty K. Lui ◽  
Michael D. Nunez ◽  
Jessica M. Cassidy ◽  
Joachim Vandekerckhove ◽  
Steven C. Cramer ◽  
...  

AbstractDecision-making in two-alternative forced choice tasks has several underlying components including stimulus encoding, perceptual categorization, response selection, and response execution. Sequential sampling models of decision-making are based on an evidence accumulation process to a decision boundary. Animal and human studies have focused on perceptual categorization and provide evidence linking brain signals in parietal cortex to the evidence accumulation process. In this exploratory study, we use a task where the dominant contribution to response time is response selection and model the response time data with the drift-diffusion model. EEG measurement during the task show that the Readiness Potential (RP) recorded over motor areas has timing consistent with the evidence accumulation process. The duration of the RP predicts decision-making time, the duration of evidence accumulation, suggesting that the RP partly reflects an evidence accumulation process for response selection in the motor system. Thus, evidence accumulation may be a neural implementation of decision-making processes in both perceptual and motor systems. The contributions of perceptual categorization and response selection to evidence accumulation processes in decision-making tasks can be potentially evaluated by examining the timing of perceptual and motor EEG signals.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Scherbaum ◽  
Steven Lade ◽  
Thilo Gross ◽  
Stefan Siegmund ◽  
Thomas Goschke ◽  
...  

Decision-making is usually studied on a trial by trial basis and each decision is assumed to represent an isolated choice process. These assumptions are also reflected in sequential sampling models which conceive of the decision-process as an accumulation of information about the attractiveness of the options at hand. Real-life decisions however are usually embedded in a rich context of previous choices at different time scales. A fundamental yet neglected question is therefore how the dynamics of choice processes unfold on a long-term time scale across several decisions. Here, we present a neural-inspired attractor model that integrates the short-term mechanism of accumulation models with the long-term dynamics of coupled neural systems. The model represents a class of models that incorporate inherent long-term dynamics. We use the model to predict long-term patterns, namely oscillatory switching, perseveration and dependence of perseveration on the delay between decisions. Furthermore, we predict RT effects for specific trials. We validate the predictions in two new studies and a reanalysis of existing data from a novel decision game in which participants have to perform delay discounting decisions. Applying the validated reasoning to a well-established choice questionnaire, we illustrate and discuss that taking long-term choice patterns into account may be necessary to accurately analyse and model decision processes.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blair Shevlin ◽  
Ian Krajbich

Research has demonstrated that value-based decisions depend not only on the relative value difference between options, but also on their overall value. In particular, response times tend to decrease as the overall value of the options increase. Standard sequential sampling models such as the diffusion model can account for this fact by assuming that decision thresholds or noise vary with overall value. Alternatively, attention-based models that incorporate eye-tracking data accommodate this overall-value effect directly as a consequence of the multiplicative relationship between attention and value magnitude. Using non-attentional diffusion models fit to data simulated with an attention-based model, we find that parameters related to decision thresholds or noise vary as a function of overall value, even though these were not features of the data generating process. We find additional evidence for misidentified parameters in a similar analysis using empirical data. Our results indicate that neglecting attentional effects can lead to mistaken conclusions about which decision parameters are sensitive to overall value.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Tillman

In this thesis I argue that cognitive psychologists can use the combination of sequential sampling models, Bayesian estimation methods, and model comparison via predictive accuracy to investigate underlying cognitive processes of perceptual decision-making. I show that sequential sampling models of simple and choice response time allow for researchers to analyze behavioral data and translate them into the constitute components of processing, such as speed of processing, response caution, and the time needed for perceptual encoding and overt motor responses. I use these methods and models to investigate underlying mental processes related to cognitive load, speech perception, and lexical decision-making. I also show that using different sequential sampling models to analyze the same data can lead researchers to draw different conclusions about cognitive processes, which serves as a caution for carelessly using these models. I also present a novel method that researchers can use to observe cognitive processes unfold online during perceptual decision-making tasks. I then discuss a promising collaboration emerging between researchers in the field of mathematical modeling and neuroscience.


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