A critique of Oaksford, Chater, and Larkin's (2000) conditional probability model of conditional reasoning.

Author(s):  
Walter Schroyens ◽  
Walter Schaeken
Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Khrennikov ◽  
Alexander Alodjants

We start with a review on classical probability representations of quantum states and observables. We show that the correlations of the observables involved in the Bohm–Bell type experiments can be expressed as correlations of classical random variables. The main part of the paper is devoted to the conditional probability model with conditioning on the selection of the pairs of experimental settings. From the viewpoint of quantum foundations, this is a local contextual hidden-variables model. Following the recent works of Dzhafarov and collaborators, we apply our conditional probability approach to characterize (no-)signaling. Consideration of the Bohm–Bell experimental scheme in the presence of signaling is important for applications outside quantum mechanics, e.g., in psychology and social science. The main message of this paper (rooted to Ballentine) is that quantum probabilities and more generally probabilities related to the Bohm–Bell type experiments (not only in physics, but also in psychology, sociology, game theory, economics, and finances) can be classically represented as conditional probabilities.


Author(s):  
Christine E. Carrigan ◽  
Malcolm H. Ray

The consequences of cross-median crashes are often catastrophic but crashes into median barriers can also be severe. Wide medians provide traversable space where vehicles can recover or stop but sometimes even wide medians can be crossed over. Determining if a median barrier is needed at a particular site involves balancing the risks associated with crossing completely over the median and striking a vehicle in the opposing lanes with the risks of an errant vehicle striking a median barrier. Median crossover crashes can be viewed as a conditional probability model: first the vehicle must enter the median; second, the vehicle must cross completely over the median; third, a vehicle must be in the opposing lanes where it is struck and, finally, there is a chance of a severe or fatal injury if all these conditions are met. All the elements of this conditional probability model are documented in the literature except the third; the probability of a crash with an opposing-direction vehicle given that a vehicle has completely traversed the median. Estimating this probability is the subject of this paper.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Huanmin Wang

In order to recognize the instantaneous changes of facial microexpressions in natural environment, a method based on optical flow direction histogram and depth multiview network to enhance forest microexpression recognition was proposed. In the preprocessing stage, the histogram equalization of the acquired face image is performed, and then the dense key points of the face are detected. According to the coordinates of the key points and the face action coding system (FACS), the face region is divided into 15 regions of interest (ROI). In the feature extraction stage, the optical flow direction histogram feature between adjacent frames in ROI is extracted to detect the peak frame of microexpression sequence. Finally, the average optical flow direction histogram feature of the image sequence from the initial frame to the peak frame is extracted. In the classification stage, firstly, the head pose parameters under horizontal degrees of freedom are estimated to eliminate the influence of head pose motion, and a forest multiview conditional probability model based on deep multiview network is established. Conditional probability and neural connection function are introduced into the node splitting learning of random tree to improve the learning ability and distinguishing ability of the model on the limited training set. Finally, multiview-weighted voting is used to determine the categories of facial microexpressions. Experiments on CASME II microexpression dataset show that the proposed method can effectively describe the changes of microexpressions and improve the recognition accuracy compared with other new methods.


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