Hidden Markov Model of System Elements Technical Maintenance by Age

Technical maintenance is between the methods of operation reliability and effectiveness increasing for systems of different purposes including power systems. In the paper the hidden semi-Markov model of technical maintenance is built basing on the semi-Markov model of two-component system elements technical maintenance by age. The hidden Markov model is used to solve the problems of dynamics analyzing, predicting the states of a system modelled based on the vector of signals obtained during its operation.

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Hidden Markov Model of Two-Component System with Group Instantly Replenished Time Reserve

INFORMACIONNYE TEHNOLOGII ◽

10.17587/it.27.64-71 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 27 (2) ◽

pp. 64-71

Author(s):

S. M. Sidorov ◽

Keyword(s):

Markov Model ◽

Hidden Markov Model ◽

Phase State ◽

Markov Models ◽

Hidden Markov ◽

Operation Time ◽

Two Component System ◽

Component System ◽

Two Component ◽

Time Reserve

Most systems allow the construction of a semi-Markov model. However, during the operation of the system, full information contained in the state encoding is not always available, but it is possible to obtain some signal (information). Tasks arise to assess the consistency of the model with the received data (signals), to refine the model and its parameters. Such parameters can be characteristics of random values characterizing system operation, time reserve value, etc. The theory of hidden Markov models allows solving these problems. In order to move from a semi-Markov model of the system to its hidden Markov model, it is proposed to first the semi-Markov model merge using a stationary phase merging algorithm. In this paper, on the basis of the semi-Markov model with a common phase state space of a two-component system with a group instantly replenished timereserve, we construct a hidden Markov model of a two-component system with a group instantly replenished time reserve. It is used to evaluate the characteristics and predict the states of the system in question based on the received vector of signals. The influence of the time reserve value on the probability of occurrence of the obtained vector of signals is shown.

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Semi-Markov model of a technical system with the component-wise instantly replenished time reserve

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201822404008 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 224 ◽

pp. 04008 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yuriy E. Obzherin ◽

Stanislav M. Sidorov ◽

Sergey N. Fedorenko

Keyword(s):

Markov Model ◽

Approximate Determination ◽

Two Component System ◽

Additional Time ◽

Component System ◽

Time Redundancy ◽

Two Component ◽

Technical Systems ◽

Time Reserve

Time redundancy is one of the methods to increase the reliability and efficiency of technical systems. When it is used, the system is given additional time (a time reserve) for restoring characteristics. In this paper we construct a semi-Markov model of a two-component system with a component-wise instantly replenished time reserve. In this paper we construct a semi-Markov model of a two-component system with a component-wise instantaneous replenishment of the time reserve. For an approximate determination of the stationary characteristics of the reliability of the system, the phase merging scheme algorithm is used.

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