Non-Stationary Estimation of the Return Period of Shallow Landslide Triggering

Author(s):  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
David J. Peres
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Cohen ◽  
Massimiliano Schwarz

Abstract. Tree roots have long been recognized to increase slope stability by reinforcing the strength of soils. Slope stability models include the effects of roots by adding an apparent cohesion to the soil to simulate root strength. No model includes the combined effects of root distribution heterogeneity, stress-strain behavior of root reinforcement, or root strength in compression. Recent field observations, however, indicate that shallow landslide triggering mechanisms are characterized by differential deformation that indicates localized activation of zones in tension, compression, and shear in the soil. These observations contradict the common assumptions used in present models. Here we describe a new model for slope stability that specifically considers these effects. The model is a strain-step discrete element model that reproduces the self-organized redistribution of forces on a slope during rainfall-triggered shallow landslides. We use a conceptual sigmoidal-shaped hillslope with a clearing in its center to explore the effects of tree size, spacing, weak zones, maximum root-size diameter, and different root strength configurations. The model is driven by root data of Norway spruce obtained from laboratory and field measurements. Simulation results indicate that tree roots can stabilize slopes that would otherwise fail without them and, in general, higher root density with higher root reinforcement results in a more stable slope. Root tension provides more resistance to failure than root compression but roots with both tension and compression offer the best resistance to failure. Lateral (slope-parallel) tension can be important in cases when the magnitude of these forces is comparable to the slope-perpendicular tensile forces. In these cases, lateral forces can bring to failure tree-covered areas with high root reinforcement. Slope failure occurs when downslope soil compression reaches the soil maximum strength. When this occurs depends on the amount of root tension upslope in both the slope-perpendicular and slope-parallel directions. Roots in tension can prevent failure by reducing soil compressive forces downslope. When root reinforcement is limited, hillslopes form a crack parallel to the slope near its top. Simulations with roots that fail across this crack always resulted in a landslide. Slopes that did not form a crack could either fail or remain stable, depending on root reinforcement. Tree spacing is important for the location of weak zones but tree location on the slope (with respect to where a crack opens) is as important. Finally, for the specific cases tested here, large roots, greater than 20 mm, are too few too contribute significantly to root reinforcement. Omitting roots larger than 8 mm predicted a landslide when none should have occurred. Intermediate roots (5 to 20 mm) appear to contribute most to root reinforcement and should be included in calculations. To fully understand the mechanisms of shallow landslide triggering requires a complete re-evaluation of the traditional apparent-cohesion approach that does not reproduce the incremental loading of roots in tension or in compression. Our model shows that it is important to consider the forces held by roots in a way that is entirely different than done thus far. Our work quantifies the contribution of roots in tension and compression which now finally permits to analyze more realistically the role of root reinforcement during the triggering of shallow landslides.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilia Damiano ◽  
Luca Comegna ◽  
Roberto Greco ◽  
Pasquale Marino ◽  
Lucio Olivares ◽  
...  

<p>As other mountainous areas of Campania (Italy), mount Partenio consists of carbonate rocks covered with layered air-fall deposits originated by eruptions of the two volcanic complexes of the area (Somma Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields). The deposits are alternated layers of ashes (loamy sands) and pumices (sands with gravel), both materials characterized by negligible effective cohesion. The thickness of the deposit ranges between few centimeters along the steepest slopes (up to 50°) to some meters at the foot of the slopes, with gentle inclination. The equilibrium of the covers along the steepest slopes is guaranteed by the contribution of suction to soil shear strength. After intense and prolonged rain, this contribution is reduced by infiltrating water being stored within the cover, sometimes leading to shallow landslide triggering.</p><p>The two most recent landslide events in the area occurred on 16.12.1999 and 21.12.2019. In the first case, several landslides were triggered along slopes with inclination larger than 40°, in an area of about 10 km<sup>2</sup>, some of which evolved in the form of fast debris flows which caused damages to buildings and some victims in the town of Cervinara. In the second case, two major landslides were reported, one of which, along a slope with inclination between 42° and 45°, very close to two of the landslides of 1999, damaged roads and buildings in the town of San Martino Valle Caudina.</p><p>After the event of 1999, a hydro-meteorological monitoring station was installed near the scarp of the major landslide. Thanks to the monitoring data and laboratory investigation on the hydraulic properties of the involved soils, a mathematical model of the response of the slope to precipitation was developed (Greco et al., 2013). The model couples unsaturated flows in the pyroclastic cover with the groundwater system developing in the underlying fractured limestone bedrock, and it allows satisfactorily reproducing the seasonal trends of the terms of the hydrological balance of the slope (Greco et al., 2018).</p><p>In this study, the two events of 1999 and 2019 are compared, in terms of pre-event and event rainfall characteristics, as well as by simulating the response of the slopes by means of the mathematical model during the entire year until the day of the landslides. The obtained results show the importance of the interplay between predisposing conditions, related to the rainfall history during the months before the event, and the characteristics of the triggering event. The model simulations indicate that, while in 1999 failure conditions are predicted along slopes with inclination larger than 40°, regardless cover thickness, in 2019 landslide triggering is predicted only on slopes mantled by a cover thinner than 1.5 meters with inclination larger than 42°.</p><p>References</p><p>R. Greco, L. Comegna, E. Damiano, A. Guida, L. Olivares, L. Picarelli (2013). Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17: 4001-4013.</p><p>R. Greco, P. Marino, G.F. Santonastaso, E. Damiano (2018). Interaction between perched epikarst aquifer and unsaturated soil cover in the initiation of shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils. Water, 10(7): 948.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1025-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bordoni ◽  
C. Meisina ◽  
R. Valentino ◽  
M. Bittelli ◽  
S. Chersich

Abstract. Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are common phenomena in many parts of the world, affecting cultivation and infrastructure and sometimes causing human losses. Assessing the triggering zones of shallow landslides is fundamental for land planning at different scales. This work defines a reliable methodology to extend a slope stability analysis from the site-specific to local scale by using a well-established physically based model (TRIGRS-unsaturated). The model is initially applied to a sample slope and then to the surrounding 13.4 km2 area in Oltrepò Pavese (northern Italy). To obtain more reliable input data for the model, long-term hydro-meteorological monitoring has been carried out at the sample slope, which has been assumed to be representative of the study area. Field measurements identified the triggering mechanism of shallow failures and were used to verify the reliability of the model to obtain pore water pressure trends consistent with those measured during the monitoring activity. In this way, more reliable trends have been modelled for past landslide events, such as the April 2009 event that was assumed as a benchmark. The assessment of shallow landslide triggering zones obtained using TRIGRS-unsaturated for the benchmark event appears good for both the monitored slope and the whole study area, with better results when a pedological instead of geological zoning is considered at the regional scale. The sensitivity analyses of the influence of the soil input data show that the mean values of the soil properties give the best results in terms of the ratio between the true positive and false positive rates. The scheme followed in this work allows us to obtain better results in the assessment of shallow landslide triggering areas in terms of the reduction in the overestimation of unstable zones with respect to other distributed models applied in the past.


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