Interpretation and Compatibility of House-Price Series

1996 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Nicol
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Price ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Market Trends

Over recent years the housing market has experienced a severe and prolonged recession. Doubts about the reliability of indices indicating housing-market trends have exacerbated the difficulties of actors in the market and have impeded appropriate policy responses by government. In this paper the differences both in data and in methodology are examined, differences that may go some way to explaining why the different series may seem to indicate different trends.

Rent or buy, what are the odds? Analysing the price-to-rent ratio for housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lo ◽  
Michael James McCord ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Main Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Price Series ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The price-to-rent ratio is often regarded as an important indicator for measuring housing market imbalance and inefficiency. A central question is the extent to which house prices and rents form part of the same market and thus whether they respond similarly to parallel stimulus. If they are close proxies dynamically, then this provides valuable market intelligence, particularly where causal relationships are evident. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the relationship between market and rental pricing to uncover the price switching dynamics of residential real estate property types and whether the deviation between market rents and prices are integrated over both the long- and short-term. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses cointegration, Wald exogeneity tests and Granger causality models to determine the existence, if any, of cointegration and lead-lag relationships between prices and rents within the Belfast property market, as well as the price-to-rent ratios amongst its five main property sub-markets over the time period M4, 2014 to M12 2018. Findings The findings provide some novel insights in relation to the pricing dynamics within Belfast. Housing and rental prices are cointegrated suggesting that they tend to move in tandem in the long run. It is further evident that in the short-run, the price series Granger-causes that of rents inferring that sales price information unidirectionally diffuse to the rental market. Further, the findings on price-to-rent ratios reveal that the detached sector appears to Granger-cause those of other property types except apartments in both the short- and long-term, suggesting possible spill-over of pricing signals from the top-end to the lower strata of the market. Originality/value The importance of understanding the relationship between house prices and rental market performance has gathered momentum. Although the house price-rent ratio is widely used as an indicator of over and undervaluation in the housing market, surprisingly little is known about the theoretical relationship between the price-rent ratio across property types and their respective inter-relationships.

scholarly journals Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Rent Control ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Rent Level

AbstractWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions.

scholarly journals The role and significance of planning in the determination of house prices in Australia: Recent policy debates

2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2198894
Author(s):  
Peter Phibbs ◽  
Nicole Gurran
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Depth Analysis

On the world stage, Australian cities have been punching above their weight in global indexes of housing prices, sparking heated debates about the causes of and remedies for, sustained house price inflation. This paper examines the evidence base underpinning such debates, and the policy claims made by key commentators and stakeholders. With reference to the wider context of Australia’s housing market over a 20 year period, as well as an in depth analysis of a research paper by Australia’s central Reserve Bank, we show how economic theories commonly position land use planning as a primary driver of new supply constraints but overlook other explanations for housing market behavior. In doing so, we offer an alternative understanding of urban housing markets and land use planning interventions as a basis for more effective policy intervention in Australian and other world cities.

Housing Market Search Behavior and Expected Utility Theory: 1. Measuring Preferences for Housing

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 681-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
T R Smith ◽  
W A V Clark
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
House Price ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Utility Functions ◽  
Future Search ◽  
Space Construction ◽  
Market Search

This is the first of two papers examining housing market search in a Los Angeles market. In this paper, we derive and analyze utility functions for housing for each individual in two groups of subjects. The utility functions are derived from an experimental setting, in which house price, floor space, construction quality, and neighborhood quality are varied. The functions are found to be essentially compatible with a linear model. They are used to predict the ratings of real houses and the ratings of the expected value of future search. These ratings are compared with actual ratings obtained from subjects during search. The results suggest that the actual or predicted ratings may be employed in a direct test of a simple expected utility theory of search, and further research along these lines appears justified.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of housing market: a role of financial crises in developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Md Al Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
House Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

Purpose This study aims to examine the house price fluctuations in G7 countries by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for the years 1970–2019. The study examined the market efficiency between the short-term and long-term in the full sample period, before and after the global financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the MF-DFA to analyze house price fluctuations. Findings The findings confirmed that the housing market series are multifractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both the short and long-term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient house market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Finally, the result of before and after the financial crisis period is consistent with the full sample result. Originality/value The contribution of this study in the literature is fourfold. This is the first study that has examined the house prices efficiency by using the MF-DFA technique given by Kantelhardt et al. (2002). Previously, the house market prices and efficiency has been investigated using generalized Hurst exponent (Liu et al., 2019), Quantile Regression Approach (Chae and Bera, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2019) but no study to the best of the knowledge has been done that has used the MF-DFA technique on the housing market. Second, this is the first study that has focused on the house markets of G7 countries. Third, this study explores the house market efficiency by dividing the market into two periods i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The study strives to investigate if the financial crisis determines the change in the degree of market efficiency or not. Finally, the study gives valuable insights to the investors that will help them in their investment decisions.

Housing market networks in China's major cities: a conditional causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang ◽  
Nannan Yuan ◽  
Shichao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scale Free ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Secondary Housing Market ◽  
Market Networks

PurposeTo explore the state of this conditional Granger causality when other cities are not factors, we investigate housing market networks in China's major cities by using a combination of conditional Granger causality and network analysis.Design/methodology/approachAlthough housing market networks have been well discussed for different countries, the question of housing market networks in China's major cities based on the conditional causality perspective has yet to be answered.FindingsWe discover that second-tier cities are more influential than first-tier cities. Although the connectivity of the primary housing market is more complex than the diversified connectivity observed in the secondary housing market, both markets are scale-free networks that exhibit high stability. Moreover, we reveal that geographic conditions and economic development jointly determine the housing market's modular hierarchical structure. Our results provide meaningful information for both Chinese policymakers and investors.Originality/valueBy excluding the influence of other cities, our conditional Granger causality identifies the true casual relation between cities' housing markets. Moreover, it is the first paper to consider the primary housing market and secondary housing market separately. Specifically, Chinese prefer new house rather than second-hand house from both speculative and self-housing. Generally speaking, the new house price is lower than the second-hand house price since the new house is off-plan property. Therefore, understanding the difference between primary and secondary housing markets will provide useful information for both policymakers and speculators.

Three essays on China's housing market, monetary policy and macroeconomy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Yifeng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Price Appreciation ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] This dissertation studies China's housing market and macroeconomic activity with a strong focus on the role of monetary policy behind the markets. The first two chapters concentrate on the house price dynamics in China. Chapter 1 examines the in influence of monetary policy on China's housing price fluctuation by estimating a VAR model with China's aggregated house price data from 1998Q1 to 2015Q4. The monetary policy shock is identify ed by the sign restriction approach following Uhlig (2005), with the identification assumptions extended to three common policy instruments utilized by the central bank of China: interest rate, required reserve ratio and M2. The results suggest a negative impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock on the house price, and M2 tends to be the most effective monetary instruments in terms of policy transmission. The framework is also extended to examine the link between China's 2008 government economic stimulus plan and the subsequent house price appreciation. The obtained evidence suggests that the economic stimulus props up the house price, but its contribution to the post-2008 house price appreciation is not as prominent as indicated by other relevant studies. However, this discrepancy may be explained by the heterogeneous effects of the stimulus policy on local housing markets across China

scholarly journals Housing Prices in Unregulated Markets: Study on Verticalised Dwellings in Santiago de Chile

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Francisco Vergara-Perucich ◽  
Carlos Aguirre-Nuñez
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Santiago De Chile ◽  
Data Transparency

Chile faces a housing affordability crisis, given that most of the population is unable to secure a house. While housing prices between 2008 and 2019 increased by 63.96%, wages only increased by 21.85%. This article presented an analysis of the housing price configuration for the main borough in the country—Santiago. The assessment focused on verticalised housing constructed between 2015 and 2019. The article developed an exploratory study on the price of housing in Santiago to generate a diagnosis to identify the role played by expectations of profitability when configuring price. Based on the information generated, we sought to contribute to the discussion on public policies that advance the development of affordable housing in central boroughs with high urban value, as is the case for Santiago’s borough of Greater Santiago. We hypothesised that profit expectation of real estate developers plays a key role in the housing prices, and an adjustment in the profit ratios might increase the affordability while keeping the housing market above profitable rates. This research addressed the lack of data transparency in the Chilean housing market with archival research, reconstructing costs and earnings from projects based on official registrations of transactions at the borough level. In Chile, the access to investment costs, land values, yields, and house price formation are not publicly available, even though these factors imply that many households are facing severe difficulties in paying for and accessing decent housing.

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