SIPGANG: Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Rekomendasi Magang Industri Berbasis Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)

Magang adalah proses penerapan bidang keilmuan dan keterampilan yang diperoleh di kampus pada dunia industry. Dalam pelaksanaannya, saat mahasiswa selesai melaksanakan magang ada beberapa mengeluhkan bahwa perusahaan tempat magang tidak sesuai dengan standar yang diinginkan, tidak sesuai bidang serta beban kerja yang berlebih sehingga dalam pelaksanaanya mahasiswa merasa tidak bisa optimal dalam menggunakan kemampuan yang dimiliki. Hal ini dikarenakan adanya subjektifitas dalam penentuan tempat magang, mahasiswa memilih sendiri tempat magang tersebut yang terkadang belum mengetahui job desk yang akan dikerjakan. Selain itu koordinator magang jurusan merekomendasikan tempat magang berdasarkan penilaian pembimbing magang saat visitasi padahal tidak mengetahui keadaan sebenarnya yang telah terlaksana. Sehingga dalam hal ini dibutuhkan adanya sebuah sistem yang mampu membantu dalam pengambilan keputusan rekomendasi tempat magang. Penelitian ini dibuat dengan menerapkan metode pengembangan system Rapid Development Prototyping (RAD) dan penilaian rekomendasi diperoleh menggunakan metode MAUT (Multi Attribute Utility Theory). Metode MAUT akan mengolah penilaian dari masing kriteria (jam kerja, bobot tugas yang diberikan selama magang, kesesuaian tugas dengan keahlian, standar perusahaan, penerapan K3 di perusahaan, fasilitas dan peralatan praktik untuk peserta magang serta bidang keahlian) sesuai dengan bobot yang ditentukan dengan tujuan memberikan penilaian dari sisi mahasiswa yang telah selesai pelaksanaan magang terhadap industri bersangkutan. Pengujian pada aplikasi SIPGANG penentuan rekomendasi industry menggunakan uji kuisioner dengan Sistem Usability Scale (SUS) dan didapatkan hasil akhir 72 yang menyatakan bahwa system dalam kategori layak untuk digunakan.

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

This article presents the analysis of uncertainty and effectiveness in cost to construction project. Theoretical part describes various definitions of uncertainty, risk both with there sources as calculation bias, information ambiguity and data inaccuracy in construction projects. Main analysis is connected with the project's appraisal phase and its stages were the detailed information is the crucial factor for correct decision- making procedures under uncertainty and risk. Consequently this article is presenting various types risk what are undistinguishable from uncertainty circumstances in construction. After the description of risk and uncertainty types list of solutions were prepared. Application of the suggested risk and uncertainty extenuating techniques in practice was shown as analysis of precision and bias dependence with available information at different stages of appraisal phase.It is emphasized on uncertainty and risk management problem in the construction's decision- making. Recently methods based on the utility theory, game theory, statistical distribution and probability, were improved and adjusted due to decision-making needs in construction. That is why the model with implemented multiple-criteria approaches is suggested both as a tool for dealing with the uncertainty and risk problems and to meet the needs of project managers in appraisal phase.

Probability weighting explains Independence Axiom violations of Expected Utility Theory in monkeys

Expected Utility Theory (EUT) provides axioms for maximizing utility in risky choice. The independence axiom (IA) is its most demanding axiom: preferences between two options should not change when altering both options equally by mixing them with a common gamble. We tested common consequence (CC) and common ratio (CR) violations of the IA in thousands of stochastic choice over several months using a large variety of binary option sets. Three monkeys showed few outright Preference Reversals (8%) but substantial graded Preference Changes (46%) between the initial preferred gamble and the corresponding altered gamble. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) indicated that gamble probabilities predicted most Preference Changes in CC (72%) and CR (87%) tests. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that probability weighting within Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) explained choices better than models using Expected Value (EV) or EUT. Fitting by utility and probability weighting functions of CPT resulted in nonlinear and non-parallel indifference curves (IC) in the Marschak-Machina triangle and suggested IA non-compliance of models using EV or EUT. Indeed, CPT models predicted Preference Changes better than EV and EUT models. Indifference points in out-of-sample tests were closer to CPT-estimated ICs than EV and EUT ICs. Finally, while the few outright Preference Reversals may reflect the long experience of our monkeys, their more graded Preference Changes corresponded to those reported for humans. In benefitting from the wide testing possibilities in monkeys, our stringent axiomatic tests contribute critical information about risky decision-making and serves as basis for investigating neuronal decision mechanisms.

APPLICATION OF UTILITY THEORY IN THE STUDY OF ENTREPRENEURIAL RISKS

Тhe article discusses entrepreneurial risks from the point of view of rational behavior, which is based on obtaining satisfaction from the implementation of the project. The main approaches to the definition of risk and the works of leading researchers devoted to the problem of entrepreneurial risk are considered. Common components of risk situations, regardless of the area of the project, are highlighted. Achieving high results depends on maintaining a balance of interests of all project participants. The author's classification of entrepreneurial risks on three levels is given: macro, meso, micro, which made it possible to determine the boundaries of interests of economic entities participating in the project. The economic category of usefulness (utility) for all project participants and the economic effect as they are interested in the implementation of the project, commensurate with the costs and the results obtained, are revealed. The model "Entrepreneur - Consumer - Counterparties" is proposed, which demonstrates the realization of the interests of economic entities, which is consistent subjectivism, expressed in preference, expectation, cognition with a common interest in obtaining utility. It is proposed to develop a decision-making model in the risk management system based on the presented axioms: orderly, transit, ranked preference of project options, taking into account the expected utility by all economic entities in order to reduce entrepreneurial risks.

Comparing utility functions between risky and riskless choice in rhesus monkeys

Decisions can be risky or riskless, depending on the outcomes of the choice. Expected utility theory describes risky choices as a utility maximization process: we choose the option with the highest subjective value (utility), which we compute considering both the option’s value and its associated risk. According to the random utility maximization framework, riskless choices could also be based on a utility measure. Neuronal mechanisms of utility-based choice may thus be common to both risky and riskless choices. This assumption would require the existence of a utility function that accounts for both risky and riskless decisions. Here, we investigated whether the choice behavior of two macaque monkeys in risky and riskless decisions could be described by a common underlying utility function. We found that the utility functions elicited in the two choice scenarios were different from each other, even after taking into account the contribution of subjective probability weighting. Our results suggest that distinct utility representations exist for risky and riskless choices, which could reflect distinct neuronal representations of the utility quantities, or distinct brain mechanisms for risky and riskless choices. The different utility functions should be taken into account in neuronal investigations of utility-based choice.

Three Theories of Choice and Their Psychology of Losses

Loss aversion has long been regarded as a fundamental psychological regularity, yet evidence has accumulated to challenge this conclusion. We review three theories of how people make decisions under risk and, as a consequence, value potential losses: expected-utility theory, prospect theory, and risk-sensitivity theory. These theories, which stem from different behavioral disciplines, differ in how they conceptualize value and thus differ in their assumptions about the degree to which value is dependent on state and context; ultimately, they differ in the extent to which they see loss aversion as a stable individual trait or as a response to particular circumstances. We highlight points of confusion that have at least partly fueled the debate on the reality of loss aversion and discuss four sources of conflicting views: confusion of loss aversion with risk aversion, conceptualization of loss aversion as a trait or as state dependent, conceptualization of loss aversion as context dependent or independent, and the attention–aversion gap—the observation that people invest more attentional resources when evaluating losses than when evaluating gains, even when their choices do not reveal loss aversion.