Exoplanet secondary atmosphere loss and revival

The next step on the path toward another Earth is to find atmospheres similar to those of Earth and Venus—high–molecular-weight (secondary) atmospheres—on rocky exoplanets. Many rocky exoplanets are born with thick (>10 kbar) H2-dominated atmospheres but subsequently lose their H2; this process has no known Solar System analog. We study the consequences of early loss of a thick H2atmosphere for subsequent occurrence of a high–molecular-weight atmosphere using a simple model of atmosphere evolution (including atmosphere loss to space, magma ocean crystallization, and volcanic outgassing). We also calculate atmosphere survival for rocky worlds that start with no H2. Our results imply that most rocky exoplanets orbiting closer to their star than the habitable zone that were formed with thick H2-dominated atmospheres lack high–molecular-weight atmospheres today. During early magma ocean crystallization, high–molecular-weight species usually do not form long-lived high–molecular-weight atmospheres; instead, they are lost to space alongside H2. This early volatile depletion also makes it more difficult for later volcanic outgassing to revive the atmosphere. However, atmospheres should persist on worlds that start with abundant volatiles (for example, water worlds). Our results imply that in order to find high–molecular-weight atmospheres on warm exoplanets orbiting M-stars, we should target worlds that formed H2-poor, that have anomalously large radii, or that orbit less active stars.