GRACE Follow-On revealed Bangladesh was flooded early in the 2020 monsoon season due to premature soil saturation

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (47) ◽  
pp. e2109086118
Author(s):  
Shin-Chan Han ◽  
Khosro Ghobadi-Far ◽  
In-Young Yeo ◽  
Christopher M. McCullough ◽  
Eunjee Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Water Management ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Gravity Measurements ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
Gravity Recovery

The overall size and timing of monsoon floods in Bangladesh are challenging to measure. The inundated area is extensive in low-lying Bangladesh, and observations of water storage are key to understanding floods. Laser-ranging instruments on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Follow-On spacecraft detected the peak water storage anomaly of 75 gigatons across Bangladesh in late July 2020. This is in addition to, and three times larger than, the maximum storage anomaly in soil layers during the same period. A flood propagation model suggested that the water mass, as shown in satellite observations, is largely influenced by slow floodplain and groundwater flow processes. Independent global positioning system measurements confirmed the timing and total volume of the flood water estimates. According to land surface models, the soils were saturated a month earlier than the timing of the peak floodplain storage observed by GRACE Follow-On. The cyclone Amphan replenished soils with rainfall just before the monsoon rains started, and consequently, excessive runoff was produced and led to the early onset of the 2020 flooding. This study demonstrated how antecedent soil moisture conditions can influence the magnitude and duration of flooding. Continuous monitoring of storage change from GRACE Follow-On gravity measurements provides important information complementary to river gauges and well levels for enhancing hydrologic flood forecasting models and assisting surface water management.

The uncertainty of storage-based drought indices from GRACE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peyman Saemian ◽  
Mohammad Javad Tourian ◽  
Nico Sneeuw
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Earth’S Gravity Field ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Variability ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Gravity Recovery

<p>Climate change and the growing demand for freshwater have raised the frequency and intensity of extreme events like drought. Satellite observations have improved our understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of droughts. Since March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) have been observing variations in Earth's gravity field yielding valuable information about changes in terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). The terrestrial water storage vertically integrates all forms of water on and beneath land surface including snow, surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater storage.</p><p>Drought indices help to monitor drought by characterizing it in terms of their severity, location, duration and timing. Several drought indices have been developed based on GRACE water storage anomaly from a GRACE-based climatology, most of which suffer from the short record of GRACE, about 15 years, for their climatology. The limited duration of the GRACE observations necessitates the use of external datasets of TWSA with a more extended period for climatology. Drought characterization comes with its own uncertainties due to the inherent uncertainty in the GRACE data, the various post-processing approaches of GRACE data, and different options for external datasets on the other hand.</p><p>This study offers a method to quantify uncertainties for the storage-based drought index. Moreover, we assess the sensitivity of major global river basins to the duration of the observations. The outcome of the study is invaluable in the sense that it allows for a more informative storage based drought, including uncertainty, thus enabling a more realistic risk assessment.</p>

Assessment of the uncertainty related to irrigation modeling by a land surface model across India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dazhi Li ◽  
Xujun Han ◽  
Dhanya C.t. ◽  
Stefan Siebert ◽  
Harry Vereecken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Irrigation Requirement ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Surface Models

<p>Irrigation is very important for maintaining the agricultural production and sustaining the increasing population of India. The irrigation requirement can be estimated with land surface models by modeling water storage changes but the estimates are affected by various uncertainties such as regarding the spatiotemporal distribution of areas where and when irrigation is potentially applied. In the present work, this uncertainty is analyzed for the whole Indian domain. The irrigation requirements and hydrological fluxes over India were reconstructed by multiple simulation experiments with the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 for the year of 2010.</p><p>These multiple simulation scenarios showed that the modeled irrigation requirement and the land surface fluxes differed between the scenarios, representing the spatiotemporal uncertainty of the irrigation maps. Using a season-specific irrigation map resulted in a higher transpiration-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) in the pre-monsoon season compared to the application of a static irrigation map, which implies a higher irrigation efficiency. The remote sensing based evapotranspiration products GLEAM and MODIS ET were used for comparison, showing a similar increasing ET-trend in the pre-monsoon season as the irrigation induced land surface modeling. The correspondence is better if the seasonal irrigation map is used as basis for simulations with CLM. We conclude that more accurate temporal information on irrigation results in modeled evapotranspiration closer to the spatiotemporal pattern of evapotranspiration deduced from remote sensing. Another conclusion is that irrigation modeling should consider the sub-grid heterogeneity to improve the estimation of soil water deficit and irrigation requirement.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison and Assessment of Three Advanced Land Surface Models in Simulating Terrestrial Water Storage Components over the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 625-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youlong Xia ◽  
David Mocko ◽  
Maoyi Huang ◽  
Bailing Li ◽  
Matthew Rodell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Major Contributor ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract To prepare for the next-generation North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), three advanced land surface models [LSMs; i.e., Community Land Model, version 4.0 (CLM4.0); Noah LSM with multiphysics options (Noah-MP); and Catchment LSM-Fortuna 2.5 (CLSM-F2.5)] were run for the 1979–2014 period within the NLDAS-based framework. Unlike the LSMs currently executing in the operational NLDAS, these three advanced LSMs each include a groundwater component. In this study, the model simulations of monthly terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and its individual water storage components are evaluated against satellite-based and in situ observations, as well as against reference reanalysis products, at basinwide and statewide scales. The quality of these TWSA simulations will contribute to determining the suitability of these models for the next phase of the NLDAS. Overall, it is found that all three models are able to reasonably capture the monthly and interannual variability and magnitudes of TWSA. However, the relative contributions of the individual water storage components to TWSA are very dependent on the model and basin. A major contributor to the TWSA is the anomaly of total column soil moisture content for CLM4.0 and Noah-MP, while the groundwater storage anomaly is the major contributor for CLSM-F2.5. Other water storage components such as the anomaly of snow water equivalent also play a role in all three models. For each individual water storage component, the models are able to capture broad features such as monthly and interannual variability. However, there are large intermodel differences and quantitative uncertainties, which are motivating follow-on investigations in the NLDAS Science Testbed developed by the NASA and NCEP NLDAS teams.

scholarly journals Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Y. Sun ◽  
J. Chen ◽  
J. Donges
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract. Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

Closing the water budget at the global scale using observations, remote sensing, and reanalyses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Lehmann ◽  
Brahma Dutt Vishwakarma ◽  
Jonathan Bamber
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Terrestrial Water

<p>Despite the accuracy of GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates and the variety of global hydrological datasets providing precipitations, evapotranspiration, and runoff data, it remains challenging to find datasets satisfying the water budget equation at the global scale.</p><p>We select commonly used and widely-assessed datasets. We use several precipitations (CPC, CRU, GPCC, GPCP, GPM, MSWEP, TRMM, ERA5 Land, MERRA2), evapotranspiration (land surface models CLSM, Noah, VIC from GLDAS 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2; GLEAM, MOD16, SSEBop, ERA5 Land, MERRA2), and runoff (land surface models CLSM, Noah, VIC from GLDAS 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2; GRUN, ERA5 Land, MERRA2) datasets to assess the water storage change over more than 150 hydrological basins. Both mascons and spherical harmonics coefficients are used as the reference terrestrial water storage from different centres processing GRACE data. The analysis covers a wide range of climate zones over the globe and is conducted over 2003-2014.</p><p>The water budget closure is evaluated with Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and seasonal decomposition. Each dataset is assessed individually across all basins and dataset combinations are also ranked according to their performances. We obtain a total of 1080 combinations, among which several are suitable to close the water budget. Although none of the combinations performs consistently well over all basins, GPCP precipitations provide generally good results, together with GPCC and GPM. A better water budget closure is generally obtained when using evapotranspiration from Catchment Land Surface Models (GLDAS CLSM), while reanalyses ERA5 Land and MERRA2 are especially suitable in cold regions. Concerning runoff, the machine learning GRUN dataset performs remarkably well across climate zones, followed by ERA5 Land and MERRA2 in cold regions. We also highlight highly unrealistic values in evapotranspiration computed with version 2.2 of GLDAS (using data assimilation from GRACE) in most of the cold basins. Our results are robust as changing the GRACE product from one centre to the other does not affect our conclusions.</p>

scholarly journals Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 755-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Shamsudduha ◽  
Richard G. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Groundwater Depletion ◽  
P Value ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Aquifer Systems ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Gravity Recovery

Abstract. Under variable and changing climates groundwater storage sustains vital ecosystems and enables freshwater withdrawals globally for agriculture, drinking water, and industry. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwater storage (ΔGWS) from 2002 to 2016 in 37 of the world's large aquifer systems using an ensemble of datasets from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and land surface models (LSMs). Ensemble GRACE-derived ΔGWS is well reconciled to in situ observations (r=0.62–0.86, p value <0.001) for two tropical basins with regional piezometric networks and contrasting climate regimes. Trends in GRACE-derived ΔGWS are overwhelmingly non-linear; indeed, linear declining trends adequately (R2>0.5, p value <0.001) explain variability in only two aquifer systems. Non-linearity in ΔGWS derives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishment associated with extreme annual (>90th percentile, 1901–2016) precipitation and is inconsistent with prevailing narratives of global-scale groundwater depletion at the scale of the GRACE footprint (∼200 000 km2). Substantial uncertainty remains in estimates of GRACE-derived ΔGWS, evident from 20 realisations presented here, but these data provide a regional context to changes in groundwater storage observed more locally through piezometry.

An Analysis of the Soil Moisture Feedback on Convective and Stratiform Precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
Pierluigi Claps ◽  
Paolo D’Odorico ◽  
Francesco Laio ◽  
Thomas M. Over
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Moisture Conditions

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions in midlatitude continental regions are particularly active during the warm season. It is still unclear whether and under what circumstances these interactions may involve positive or negative feedbacks between soil moisture conditions and rainfall occurrence. Assessing such feedbacks is crucially important to a better understanding of the role of land surface conditions on the regional dynamics of the water cycle. This work investigates the relationship between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation at the daily time scale in a midlatitude continental region. Sounding data from 16 locations across the midwestern United States are used to calculate two indices of atmospheric instability—namely, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition (CIN). These indices are used to classify rainfall as convective or stratiform. Correlation analyses and uniformity tests are then carried out separately for these two rainfall categories, to assess the dependence of rainfall occurrence on antecedent soil moisture conditions, using simulated soil moisture values. The analysis suggests that most of the positive correlation observed between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation is due to the autocorrelation of long stratiform events. The authors found both areas with positive and areas with negative feedback on convective precipitation. This behavior is likely due to the contrasting effects of soil moisture conditions on convective phenomena through changes in surface temperature and the supply of water vapor to the overlying air column. No significant correlation is found between daily rainfall intensity and antecedent simulated soil moisture conditions either for convective or stratiform rainfall.

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