Applications and Challenges of GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Satellite Gravimetry

Time-variable gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions have opened up a new avenue of opportunities for studying large-scale mass redistribution and transport in the Earth system. Over the past 19 years, GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity measurements have been widely used to study mass variations in different components of the Earth system, including the hydrosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and solid Earth, and significantly improved our understanding of long-term variability of the climate system. We carry out a comprehensive review of GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry, time-variable gravity fields, data processing methods, and major applications in several different fields, including terrestrial water storage change, global ocean mass variation, ice sheets and glaciers mass balance, and deformation of the solid Earth. We discuss in detail several major challenges we need to face when using GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity measurements to study mass changes, and how we should address them. We also discuss the potential of satellite gravimetry in detecting gravitational changes that are believed to originate from the deep Earth. The extended record of GRACE/GRACE-FO gravity series, with expected continuous improvements in the coming years, will lead to a broader range of applications and improve our understanding of both climate change and the Earth system.

Deterministic approximation for population dynamics in the presence of advantageous mutants

Spatial stochastic simulations of evolutionary processes are computationally expensive. Here, based on spatially explicit decoupling approximations (SEDA) introduced by us earlier, we derive a deterministic approximation to a spatial stochastic birth-death process in the presence of two types: the less advantageous resident type and a more advantageous mutant. At the core of this technique are two essential steps: (1) a system of ODEs that approximate spatial interactions among neighboring individuals must be solved; (2) the time-variable has to be rescaled with a factor (called "alpha") that depends on the kinetic parameters of the wild type and mutant individuals. An explicit formula for alpha is derived, which is a power law of division and death rates of the two types. The method is relatively fast and provides excellent time-series agreement with the stochastic simulation results for the spatial agent-based model. The methodology can be used to describe hard selective sweep events, including the expansion of driver mutations in carcinogenesis, bacterial evolution, and aspects of resistance dynamics.

Variable structures in M87* from space, time and frequency resolved interferometry

The immediate vicinity of an active supermassive black hole—with its event horizon, photon ring, accretion disk and relativistic jets—is an appropriate place to study physics under extreme conditions, particularly general relativity and magnetohydrodynamics. Observing the dynamics of such compact astrophysical objects provides insights into their inner workings, and the recent observations of M87* by the Event Horizon Telescope1–6 using very-long-baseline interferometry techniques allows us to investigate the dynamical processes of M87* on timescales of days. Compared with most radio interferometers, very-long-baseline interferometry networks typically have fewer antennas and low signal-to-noise ratios. Furthermore, the source is variable, prohibiting integration over time to improve signal-to-noise ratio. Here, we present an imaging algorithm7,8 that copes with the data scarcity and temporal evolution, while providing an uncertainty quantification. Our algorithm views the imaging task as a Bayesian inference problem of a time-varying brightness, exploits the correlation structure in time and reconstructs (2 + 1 + 1)-dimensional time-variable and spectrally resolved images. We apply this method to the Event Horizon Telescope observations of M87*9 and validate our approach on synthetic data. The time- and frequency-resolved reconstruction of M87* confirms variable structures on the emission ring and indicates extended and time-variable emission structures outside the ring itself.

FORECASTING OF THE AMOUNT OF RUPIAH BANKNOTES FLOWS IN THE EAST REGION OF INDONESIA USING CIRCULAR REGRESSION

Money is a tool that can be used in exchanging goods and services in a certain area. Increasing and decreasing in the money supply excessively can have a negative impact on the economy. For this reason, in order to maintain financial system stability in Indonesia, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of the data on the amount of outflows of rupiah currency at each Bank Indonesia office. In this study, a relationship analysis will be carried out between the eastern region of Indonesia and the amount of outflows of Bank Indonesia banknotes during the 2016-2018 period using circular regression analysis. The results showed that 83.03% of the variation in the amount of outflows of BI banknotes could be explained by the circular regression model that was formed. In addition, in the process of forecasting data on the amount of outflows of BI banknotes in the eastern region of Indonesia for the 2019-2020 period, the time series forecasting method is used which is based on the use of analysis of the relationship pattern between the estimated variables and the time variable.