A reexamination of the dry gets drier and wet gets wetter paradigm over global land: insight from terrestrial water storage changes

The “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm has been widely used to summarize the expected trends of the global hydrologic cycle under climate change. However, the paradigm is challenged over land due to different measures and datasets, and is still unexplored from the perspective of terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). Considering the essential role of TWSA in wetting and drying of the land surface, here we built upon a large ensemble of TWSA datasets including satellite-based products, global hydrological models, land surface models, and global climate models to evaluate the DDWW hypothesis during the historical (1985–2014) and future (2071–2100) periods under various scenarios. We find that 27.1 % of global land confirms the DDWW paradigm, while 22.4 % of the area shows the opposite pattern during the historical period. In the future, the DDWW paradigm is still challenged with the percentage supporting the pattern lower than 20 %, and both the DDWW-validated and DDWW-opposed proportion increase along with the intensification of emission scenarios. Our findings will provide insights and implications for global wetting and drying trends from the perspective of TWSA under climate change.

Estimation of Terrestrial Water Storage Variations in Sichuan-Yunnan Region from GPS Observations Using Independent Component Analysis

GPS can be used to measure land motions induced by mass loading variations on the Earth’s surface. This paper presents an independent component analysis (ICA)-based inversion method that uses vertical GPS coordinate time series to estimate the change of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Sichuan-Yunnan region in China. The ICA method was applied to extract the hydrological deformation signals from the vertical coordinate time series of GPS stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONC). These vertical deformation signals were then inverted to TWS variations. Comparative experiments were conducted based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and a hydrological model for validation. The results demonstrate that the TWS changes estimated from GPS(ICA) deformations are highly correlated with the water variations derived from the GRACE data and hydrological model in Sichuan-Yunnan region. The TWS variations are overestimated by the vertical GPS observations the northwestern Sichuan-Yunnan region. The anomalies are likely caused by inaccurate atmospheric loading correction models or residual tropospheric errors in the region with high topographic variability and can be reduced by ICA preprocessing.

Temporal/Spatial Variation of Terrestrial Water Storage and Groundwater Storage in Typical Inland River Basins of Central Asia

In this study, the Amu Darya river basin, Syr Darya river basin and Balkhash lake basin in Central Asia were selected as typical study areas. Temporal/spatial changes from 2002 to 2016 in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and the groundwater storage (GWS) were analyzed, based on RL06 Mascon data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, and the sum of soil water content, snow water equivalent and canopy water data that were obtained from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Combing meteorological data and land use and cover change (LUCC) data, the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on the terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) and the groundwater storage change (GWSC) was evaluated by statistical analysis. The results revealed three findings: (1) The TWS retrieved by CSR (Center for Space Research) and the JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) showed a decreasing trend in the three basins, and the variation of TWS showed a maximum surplus in spring (March–May) and a maximum deficit in autumn (September–November). (2) The decreasing rates of groundwater storage that were extracted, based on JPL and CSR Mascon data sets, were −2.17 mm/year and −3.90 mm/year, −3.72 mm/year and −4.96 mm/year, −1.74 mm/year and −3.36 mm/year in the Amu Darya river basin, Syr Darya river basin and Balkhash lake basin, respectively. (3) In the Amu Darya river basin, annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, while the evapotranspiration rate showed an increasing trend due to an increasing temperature, and the TWS decreased from 2002 to 2016 in most areas of the basin. However, in the middle reaches of the Amu Darya river basin, the TWS increased due to the increase in cultivated land area, water income from flooded irrigation, and reservoir impoundment. In the upper reaches of the Syr Darya river basin, the increase in precipitation in alpine areas leads to an increase in glacier and snow meltwater, which is the reason for the increase in the TWS. In the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya river basin, the amount of evapotranspiration dissipation exceeds the amount of water replenished by agricultural irrigation, which leads to a decrease in TWS and GWS. The increase in precipitation in the northwest of the Balkhash lake basin, the increase in farmland irrigation water, and the topography (higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest) led to an increase in TWS and GWS in the northwest of the Balkhash lake basin. This study can provide useful information for water resources management in the inland river basins of Central Asia.