An Unprecedented Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Rings Alarm Bells

Weatherwise ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
Tim Vasquez
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 1793-1810
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Dennis P Lettenmaier

AbstractWe examine reforecasts of flash droughts over the United States for the late spring (April–May), midsummer (June–July), and late summer/early autumn (August–September) with lead times up to 3 pentads based on the NOAA second-generation Global Ensemble Forecast System reforecasts version 2 (GEFSv2). We consider forecasts of both heat wave and precipitation deficit (P deficit) flash droughts, where heat wave flash droughts are characterized by high temperature and depletion of soil moisture and P deficit flash droughts are caused by lack of precipitation that leads to (rather than being the cause of) high temperature. We find that the GEFSv2 reforecasts generally capture the frequency of occurrence (FOC) patterns. The equitable threat score (ETS) of heat wave flash drought forecasts for late spring in the regions where heat wave flash droughts are most likely to occur over the north-central and Pacific Northwest regions is statistically significant up to 2 pentads. The GEFSv2 reforecasts capture the basic pattern of the FOC of P-deficit flash droughts and also are skillful up to lead about 2 pentads. However, the reforecasts overestimate the P-deficit flash drought FOC over parts of the Southwest in late spring, leading to large false alarm rates. For autumn, the reforecasts underestimate P-deficit flash drought occurrence over California and Nevada. The GEFSv2 reforecasts are able to capture the approximately linear relationship between evaporation and soil moisture, but the lack of skill in precipitation forecasts limits the skill of P-deficit flash drought forecasts.


2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1169-1184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Abstract Flash drought refers to relatively short periods of warm surface temperature and anomalously low and rapid decreasing soil moisture (SM). Based on the physical mechanisms associated with flash droughts, these events are classified into two categories: heat wave and precipitation P deficit flash droughts. In previous work, the authors have defined heat wave flash droughts as resulting from the confluence of severe warm air temperature Tair, which increases evapotranspiration (ET), and anomalously low and decreasing SM. Here, a second type of flash drought caused by precipitation deficits is explored. The authors term these events P-deficit flash droughts, which they associate with lack of P. Precipitation deficits cause ET to decrease and temperature to increase. The P-deficit flash droughts are analyzed based on observations of P, Tair, and SM and ET reconstructed using land surface models for the period 1916–2013. The authors find that P-deficit flash droughts are more common than heat wave flash droughts. They are about twice as likely to occur as heat wave flash droughts over the conterminous United States. They are most prevalent over the southern United States with maxima over the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, in contrast to heat wave flash droughts that are mostly likely to occur over the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest, where the vegetation cover is dense.


2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 1618-1631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin A. Bumbaco ◽  
Kathie D. Dello ◽  
Nicholas A. Bond

AbstractA historical record of Pacific Northwest (defined here as west of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon) heat waves is identified using the U.S. Historical Climate Network, version 2, daily data (1901–2009). Both daytime and nighttime events are examined, defining a heat wave as three consecutive days above the 99th percentile for the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies separately. Although the synoptic characteristics of the daytime and nighttime heat events are similar, they do indicate some differences between the two types of events. Most notable is a stronger influence of downslope warming over the Cascade Mountains for the daytime events versus a more important role of precipitable water content for the nighttime events, presumably through its impact on downward longwave radiative fluxes. Current research suggests that the frequency and duration of heat waves are expected to increase in much of the United States, and analysis of the heat events reveals that a significant, increasing trend in the frequency of the nighttime events is already occurring in the Pacific Northwest. A heat wave occurred in 2009 that set all-time-record maximum temperatures in many locations and ranked as the second strongest daytime event and the longest nighttime event in the record.


2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Cao ◽  
ÉM Neif ◽  
W Li ◽  
J Coppens ◽  
N Filiz ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 452
Author(s):  
Margaret H. Massie ◽  
Todd M. Wilson ◽  
Anita T. Morzillo ◽  
Emilie B. Henderson

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-Yoon Back ◽  
Sang-Wook Kim ◽  
Myung-Il Jung ◽  
Joon-Woo Roh ◽  
Seok-Woo Son

1986 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.D. Merz ◽  
F. Gerber ◽  
R. Wang

AbstractThe Materials Characterization Center (MCC) at Pacific Northwest Lab- oratory is performing three kinds of corrosion tests for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) to establish the interlaboratory reproducibility and uncertainty of corrosion rates of container materials for high-level nuclear waste. The three types of corrosion tests were selected to address two distinct conditions that are expected in a repository constructed in basalt. An air/steam test is designed to address corrosion during the operational period and static pressure vessel and flowby tests are designed to address corrosion under conditions that bound the condi ring the post-closure period of the repository.The results of tests at reference testing conditions, which were defined to facilitate interlaboratory comparison of data, are presented. Data are reported for the BWIP/MCC-105.5 Air/Steam Test, BWIP/MCC-105.1 Static Pressure Vessel, and BWIP/MC-105.4 Flowby Test. In those cases where data are available from a second laboratory, a statistical analysis of interlaboratory results is reported and expected confidence intervals for mean corrosion rates are given. Other statistical treatment of data include analyses of the effects of vessel-to-vessel variations, test capsule variations for the flowby test, and oven-to-oven variations for air/steam tests.


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