Great Lakes Basin Heat Waves: An Analysis of Their Increasing Probability of Occurrence Under Global Warming

Extreme heat events in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) region of eastern North America are expected to increase in concert with greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global warming. The extent of this regional increase is also influenced by the direct effects of the Great Lakes themselves. This paper describes results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled global warming projection using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional climate model coupled to the Freshwater Lake (FLake) model over the Great Lakes region. In our downscaling pipeline, we explore two sets of WRF physics configurations, with the initial and boundary conditions provided by four different fully coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs). Three time periods are investigated, namely an instrumental period (1979–1989) that is employed for validation, and a mid-century (2050–2060) and an end-century (2085–2100) periods that are used to understand the future impacts of global warming. Results from the instrumental period are characterized by large variations in climate states between the ensemble members, which is attributed to differences in both GCM forcing and WRF physics configuration. Results for the future periods, however, are such that the regional model results have good agreement with GCM results insofar as the rise of average temperature with GHG is concerned. Analysis of extreme heat events suggests that the occurrence rate of such events increase steadily with rising temperature, and that the Great Lakes exert strong lake effect influence on extreme heat events in this region.

High-Resolution WRF Simulation of Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China: Large Sensitivity to Land Surface Schemes

Regional climate models with high-resolution simulation are particularly useful for providing a detailed representation of land surface processes, and for studying the relationship between land surface processes and heat events. However, large differences and uncertainties exist among different land surface schemes (LSSs). This study comprehensively assesses the sensitivity to different LSSs based on two extreme heat events in eastern China using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Among the five LSSs (i.e., 5TD, CLM4, Noah, Noah-MP and RUC), Noah is closest to observations in reproducing the temperatures and energy fluxes for both two heat events. The modeled warm biases result mainly from the underestimation of evapotranspirative cooling. Our results show that how each LSS partitions the evapotranspiration (ET) and sensible heat largely determines the relationship between the temperature and turbulent fluxes. Although the simulated two extreme heat events manifest similar biases in the temperatures and energy fluxes, the land surface responses (ET and soil moisture) are different.

The Effect of Heat Events on Prehospital and Retrieval Service Utilization in Rural and Remote Areas: A Scoping Review

Introduction: It is well-established that heatwaves increase demand for emergency transport in metropolitan areas; however, little is known about the impact of heat events on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, or how heatwaves are defined in this context. Inclusion Criteria: Papers were eligible for inclusion if they reported on the impact of a heat event on the activity of a prehospital and retrieval service in a rural or remote area. Methods: A search of PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct, CINAHL, and Google Scholar databases was undertaken on August 18, 2020 using search terms related to emergency medical transport, extreme heat, and rural or remote. Data relevant to the impact of heat on retrieval service activity were extracted, as well as definitions of extreme heat. Results: Two papers were identified, both from Australia. Both found that heat events increased the number of road ambulance call-outs. Both studies used the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to define heatwave periods of interest. Conclusions: This review found almost no primary literature on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, and no data specifically related to aeromedical transport. The research did recognize the disproportionate impact of heat-related increase in service demand on Australian rural and regional health services. With the effects of climate change already being felt, there is an urgent need for more research and action in this area.

Interannual Variability of Springtime Extreme Heat Events over the Southeastern Edge of the Tibetan Plateau: Role of A Spring-type Circum-global Teleconnection Pattern

Due to the high mountains to the west and north of the plateau, and the control by westerly mean flow in spring, hot and dry conditions are often observed over the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (SETP), and hence favoring occurrences of extreme heat events there. Indeed, maximum centers and remarkable increasing trends of extreme heat (EH) days in spring are found over the region. Springtime EH events over the SETP also exhibit strong interannual variability and are closely linked to a spring-type circum-global teleconnection (SCGT) pattern, which is the second leading mode of 200-hPa meridional wind over the North Hemisphere in spring. This SCGT shows distinctive features from the traditional circum-global teleconnection patterns found in boreal summer and winter. It is revealed by a circum-globally navigated Rossby wave train along the mid-high latitudes, which splits to a north branch along the polar jet and a south branch along the subtropical jet over Eurasia after propagating through the North Atlantic. The two branches eventually reach the SETP, forming an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the region. Hence, conditions in the SETP are controlled by significant anomalous subsidence and a clearer sky, resulting in below-normal rainfall and above-normal air temperature, in favor of more EH events in the region. The SETP EH events are also closely linked to the spring-type CGT-like pattern in April and May, but not in March. In addition, the influence of the foehn effect on the SETP EH is discussed.

Extreme Heat

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are periods of high temperatures and humidity that are considered to be unusual for a specific geographic location. For example, in 1995 an extended heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, in the United States was blamed for the deaths of 550 citizens. Most of the dead were elderly, poor individuals who may not have realized that heat could kill, or who had no means of mitigating the rising temperatures in their homes or any way to escape to a cooler environment. In 2003, Europe was subjected to an EHE that is estimated to have resulted in the deaths of 70,000, with 15,000 of those deaths in Paris, France. “Extreme heat” is a relative term. Individuals adapt to their local climate, so it is difficult to use an absolute number to describe the conditions meteorologists consider a relative change from past conditions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines extreme heat as “summertime temperatures that are substantially hotter and/or more humid than average for location at that time of year.” According to the Public Health Institute’s Center for Climate Change, the state of California defines extreme heat days as those days above the 98th percentile of maximum temperatures based on 1961–1990 data for a specific location. Crucial to understanding extreme heat events is the collection of data about temperature and humidity. The US Global Change Research Program provides heat wave data spanning 1961 to 2018. The site links to a variety of programs related to global climate modeling. The National Resources Defense Council is a nongovernmental organization that has excellent maps which show change over time in the frequency of extreme heat events that overlay the human impact of these events. The National Centers for Environmental Information provides graphic data of current weather conditions along with lists of significant climate anomalies. The site has links to weather records and tools. All of these sites rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for their data. There are equivalent agencies all over the world. The World Meteorological Organization, part of the United Nations, is also a valuable resource for data.