It is the focus of social security system reform at this stage in China to promote the transition of basic endowment insurance for urban employees from provincial overall planning level to national overall planning level, which is of great significance to the realization of fair and efficient of economic development. Based on the micro data of China Household Finance Survey 2017 (CHFS2017), this paper first establishes a personal wage prediction model to estimate the distribution of personal lifetime wage income, then designs two pension collection and payment plans of “direct national overall planning” and “indirect national overall planning”, and establishes an actuarial model of pension to calculate the present value of personal lifetime contribution, lifetime claim and lifetime real wage income after pension adjustment under different overall planning levels. Finally, the income gap index and net benefit rate index are used to measure the change of the whole income gap and the transfer of pension benefits. The results show that on the whole, the basic endowment insurance for urban employees does have a significant income redistribution effect, and its income adjustment effect is positively related to the overall planning level and intensity of the system. Under the current provincial overall planning level, the income redistribution effects of the system are as follows: the high-income group transfers to the low-income group, the young generation to the elderly generation, the female insured person to the male insured person, and the non-state-owned economic unit to the state-owned economic unit. With the improvement of the overall planning level and strengthening of intensity, there are differences in the changes of benefits among different groups.
Assessing the Social Welfare Effects of Government Transfer Programs: Some International Comparisons
