Conditional price volatility, speculation, and excessive speculation in commodity markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardina Algieri
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 217-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego García ◽  
Juan Ignacio Guzmán

Author(s):  
Karl WOHLMUTH

In this paper weak and strong forms of global governance of raw materials markets are compared. This is done by comparing the «transparency agenda» with the «structural reform agenda». John Maynard Keynes has worked for decades academically on commodity markets, on speculation and storage, on forward markets and buffer stocks etc., but he has also practised commercial trading activity on various commodity markets, and he has written and/or influenced the Post-World War Two ICU/ITO (International Clearing Union/International Trade Organization) agendas which are containing detailed provisions for establishing a world order on commodity markets. He was very much interested in the relation between price volatility of raw materials and its impacts on global macroeconomics, but he was also convinced that appropriate regulations of commodity markets and sectors impact positively on peace and development. He was convinced that strong global governance must be based on simple, stable, effective, consensual and binding rules. Now the «transparency agenda» with regard of raw materials is so much debated but it is a rather weak form of global governance, while the «structural reform agenda» represents a rather strong form of global governance of the resources sectors. The «transparency agenda» is discussed in great detail in this paper while the «structural reform agenda» is considered in the Conclusions and Outlook section but needs further elaboration in a follow-up paper.


SURG Journal ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Bethany Woods

With the recent financial crisis and its enduring fallout, questions surrounding the state of global food security have become more pressing. A key element influencing the nutritional status of the world’s poor is price behavior within global food commodity markets. In recent decades, food commodity markets have experienced both significant price increases, and an increase in volatility. These price trends have had significant impacts on the diversity of diets in impoverished households worldwide, which in turn has impacted nutrition and health. This paper will discuss the causes behind recent trends in food commodity prices, and the extent of their impact on food security and nutrition. Specifically, it will address the impact of food price increases and the uncertainty induced by food price volatility on household food consumption and nutrition. Micronutrient intake is the focus of the nutritional discussion of this work, and variations of consumption behavior in various regions and within different household dynamics are all taken into account. Existing policy actions are discussed in terms of the frequency of their implementation, the factors encouraging or deterring their implementation, and their intended and unintended consequences. Finally, the paper concludes with suggestions for future actions and areas for future research.


Author(s):  
Athanasios Triantafyllou

This chapter presents empirical evidence showing the impact of economic uncertainty and monetary policy on the volatility of commodity futures markets. The findings are in line with those of the relevant literature according to which rising uncertainty predicts rising volatility in commodity markets. The author shows that the unobservable economic uncertainty measures of Jurado et al. (2015) have a significant and long-lasting positive impact on the volatility of commodity prices. Hence, the OLS regression results show that commodity markets are significantly affected by the rising degree of unpredictability in the macroeconomy, while they are relatively immune to observable macroeconomic fluctuations. The expansionary monetary policy is followed by rising volatility in agricultural and energy markets, while it has much smaller effect on the volatility of metals markets. Financialization in commodity markets has increased the dynamic linkages between monetary policy shocks and commodity price volatility.


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