The potential seasonal alternative of Asia–Europe container service via Northern sea route under the Arctic sea ice retreat

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 541-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Xu ◽  
Zhifang Yin ◽  
Dashan Jia ◽  
Fengjun Jin ◽  
Hua Ouyang
2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6265-6278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Rosenblum ◽  
Ian Eisenman

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here sea ice changes during 1979–2013 are examined in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. All of the simulations with 1979–2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations are found to have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, it is found that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observations is found to typically correspond with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. As a result, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongxiao Zhang ◽  
Chidong Zhang ◽  
Jessica Cross ◽  
Calvin Mordy ◽  
Edward Cokelet ◽  
...  

<p>The Arctic has been rapidly changing over the last decade, with more frequent unusually early ice retreats in late spring and summer. Vast Arctic areas that were usually covered by sea ice are now exposed to the atmosphere because of earlier ice retreat and later arrival. Assessment of consequential changes in the energy cycle of the Arctic and their potential feedback to the variability of Arctic sea ice and marine ecosystems critically depends on the accuracy of surface flux estimates. In the Pacific sector of the Arctic, earlier ice retreat generally follows the warm Pacific water inflow into the Arctic through the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Due to ice coverage and irregularity of seasonal ice retreats, air-sea flux measurements following the ice retreats has been difficult to plan and execute. A recent technology development is the Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs): The long-range USV saildrones are powered by green energy with wind for propulsion and solar energy for instrumentation and vehicle control. NOAA/PMEL and University of Washington scientists have made surface measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Arctic using saildrones for the past several years. In 2019, for the 1<sup>st</sup> time a fleet of six saildrones capable of measuring both turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, wind stress, air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> flux and upper ocean currents was deployed to follow the ice retreat from May to October, with five of the USVs into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas while one staying in the Bering Sea. These in situ measurements provide rare opportunities of estimating air-sea energy fluxes during a period of rapid reduction in Arctic sea ice in different scenarios: open water after ice melt, free-floating ice bands, and marginal ice zones. In this study, Arctic air-sea heat and momentum fluxes measured by the saildrones are compared to gridded flux products based on satellite data and numerical models to investigate the circumstances under which they agree and differ, and the main sources of their discrepancies. The results will quantify the uncertainty margins in the gridded flux products and provide insights needed to improve their accuracy. We will also discuss the feasibility of using USVs in sustained Arctic observing system to collect benchmark datasets of the changing surface energy fluxes due to rapid sea ice reduction and provide real time data for improved weather and ocean forecasts.  </p>


2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1269-1306 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Dorn ◽  
K. Dethloff ◽  
A. Rinke

Abstract. The effects of internal model variability on the simulation of Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been examined with the aid of a seven-member ensemble with a coupled regional climate model for the period 1948–2008. Beyond general weaknesses related to insufficient representation of feedback processes, it is found that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea-ice retreat depends mainly on two factors: the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period. Since internal model variability shows its maximum during the summer months, the ability to reproduce the observed atmospheric summer circulation is limited. In addition, the atmospheric circulation during summer also significantly affects the sea-ice volume over the years, leading to a limited ability to start with reasonable sea-ice volume into the melting period. Furthermore, the sea-ice volume pathway shows notable decadal variability which amplitude varies among the ensemble members. The scatter is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases, indicating limited skill in reproducing high-ice years.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (24) ◽  
pp. 12,457-12,465 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sigmond ◽  
M. C. Reader ◽  
G. M. Flato ◽  
W. J. Merryfield ◽  
A. Tivy

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 515-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Perrette ◽  
A. Yool ◽  
G. D. Quartly ◽  
E. E. Popova

Abstract. Ice-edge blooms are significant features of Arctic primary production, yet have received relatively little attention. Here we combine satellite ocean colour and sea-ice data in a pan-Arctic study. Ice-edge blooms occur in all seasonally ice-covered areas and from spring to late summer, being observed in 77–89% of locations for which adequate data exist, and usually peaking within 20 days of ice retreat. They sometimes form long belts along the ice-edge (greater than 100 km), although smaller structures were also found. The bloom peak is on average more than 1 mg m−3, with major blooms more than 10 mg m−3, and is usually located close to the ice-edge, though not always. Some propagate behind the receding ice-edge over hundreds of kilometres and over several months, while others remain stationary. The strong connection between ice retreat and productivity suggests that the ongoing changes in Arctic sea-ice may have a significant impact on higher trophic levels and local fish stocks.


2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A. Woodgate ◽  
Tom Weingartner ◽  
Ron Lindsay

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