Stratospheric Final Warmings fall into two categories with different evolution over the course of the year

In early spring the stratospheric zonal circulation reverses from westerly to easterly. The transition, called Stratospheric Final Warming (SFW), may be smooth and late, mainly controlled by the solar radiative heating of the polar region, or early and abrupt with rapid increase of polar temperature and deceleration of the zonal wind, forced by the planetary wave activity. Here we present a study, based on 71 years meteorological reanalysis data. Two composites of radiative and dynamical SFWs have been built. There is a very significant difference in the evolution during the year of polar temperature and 60°N zonal wind between the two composites. The state of the polar vortex on given month is anticorrelated with its state 2 to 3 months earlier. Early winter is anticorrelated with mid-winter and mid-winter with late winter/early spring. The summer stratosphere keeps a memory of its state in April–May after the SFW until late June.

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

Influence of tropical convective enhancement in Pacific on the trend of stratospheric sudden warmings in Northern Hemisphere

The exploration of the trend in stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is conducive to predict SSWs in the future. Utilizing the National Centre for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis (NCEP) (1948–2020) and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55) (1958–2020), we investigated the duration and strength of SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere occurred in the boreal winter (December–February). We found the duration of SSWs tends to increase and the strength of SSWs tends to strengthen from 1948 to 2003. After 2003, these trends did not continue. We utilized the observed cloudiness from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) to find that the convective activities in the tropical Central Pacific were enhanced during 1948–2003, and the enhancement of the convective activities did not continue after 2003. The circulation anomalies caused by the enhanced convective activities propagate to the high latitudes through wave trains. The anomalies of circulation and the climatological circulation at high latitudes interfere with each other and superimpose, which has a significant impact on planetary wave 1 (PW1). As a result, the PW1 also showed an increasing trend from 1948 to 2003 and a decreasing trend after 2003. After the stratosphere filters out the planetary wave with a large wavenumber, PW1 accounts for more proportion of planetary waves, which causes the trend in SSWs to change.

Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies

This study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.

Global contributions of mesoscale dynamics to meridional heat transport

Mesoscale ocean processes are prevalent in many parts of the global oceans and may contribute substantially to the meridional movement of heat. Yet earlier global surveys of meridional temperature fluxes and heat transport (HT) have not formally distinguished between mesoscale and large-scale contributions, or they have defined eddy contributions based on temporal rather than spatial characteristics. This work uses spatial filtering methods to separate large-scale (gyre and planetary wave) contributions from mesoscale (eddy, recirculation, and tropical instability wave) contributions to meridional HT. Overall, the mesoscale temperature flux (MTF) produces a net poleward meridional HT at midlatitudes and equatorward meridional HT in the tropics, thereby resulting in a net divergence of heat from the subtropics. In addition to MTF generated by propagating eddies and tropical instability waves, MTF is also produced by stationary recirculations near energetic western boundary currents, where the temperature difference between the boundary current and its recirculation produces the MTF. The mesoscale contribution to meridional HT yields substantially different results from temporally based “eddy” contributions to meridional HT, with the latter including large-scale gyre and planetary wave motions at low latitudes. Mesoscale temperature fluxes contribute the most to interannual and decadal variability of meridional HT in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo-Pacific, and the North Atlantic. Surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is not a good proxy for MTF variability in regions with the highest time-mean EKE, though it does explain much of the temperature flux variability in regions of modest time-mean EKE. This approach to quantifying mesoscale fluxes can be used to improve parameterizations of mesoscale effects in coarse-resolution models and assess regional impacts of mesoscale eddies and recirculations on tracer fluxes.

Latitude Oscillations of Zonal Mean Total Electron Content and Super-Fountain Effects Provided from Global GNSS Stations

Seasonal and latitude oscillations of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) were investigated by zonal mean total electron content (TEC) provided from global gridded GNSS data from 1999 to 2017. Maximum monthly zonal mean TEC values showed NH spring equinox’s value is higher than fall's. Some fluctuations are observed due to upward planetary wave propagation in equinoxes and winter especially in low solar activity. Two cases of super-fountain effect were also clearly detected on zonal mean TEC.

Eastward-propagating planetary wave in the polar middle atmosphere

We presented the global variations of the eastward propagating wavenumber 1 (E1), 2 (E2), 3 (E3), and 4 (E4) planetary waves (PWs) and their diagnostic results in the polar middle atmosphere, using MERRA-2 temperature and wind datasets in 2019. It is clearly shown that the eastward wave modes exist during winter periods with westward background wind in both hemispheres. The maximum wave amplitudes in the southern hemisphere (SH) are slightly larger and lie lower than those in the northern hemisphere (NH). It is also found that the wave perturbations peak at lower latitudes with smaller amplitude as the wavenumber increases. The period of the E1 mode varies from 3 to 5 days in both hemispheres, while the period of E2 mode is slightly longer in the NH (48 h) than in the SH (40 h). The periods of the E3 are ~30 h in both SH and NH, and the period of E4 is ~24 h. Though the wave periods become shorter as the wavenumber increases, their mean phase speeds are relatively stable, which are ~53, ~58, ~55, and ~52 m/s at 70° latitudes for W1, W2, W3, and W4, respectively. The eastward PWs occur earlier with increasing zonal wavenumber, which agrees well with the seasonal variations of the background zonal wind through the generation of critical layers. Diagnostic analysis also shows that the mean flow instability in the upper stratosphere and upper mesosphere may both contribute to the amplification of the eastward PWs.