Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the shipping freight market: their impact on shipping investments

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Nikos K. Nomikos ◽  
Dimitris A. Tsouknidis
Author(s):  
Florian Ielpo

This chapter covers the economic fundamentals of commodity markets (i.e., what shapes the evolution of the price of raw materials) in three steps. First, it covers the theories explaining why the futures curve can be upward or downward sloping, an essential element for commodity producing companies. The evolution of inventories and hedging pressures are the two dominant sources of explanation. Second, the chapter reviews the fundamentals of commodity spot prices: technologies, supply, demand, and speculation. Production costs draw the long-term evolution of prices, but demand and supply shocks can trigger substantial variations in commodity prices. Third, the chapter presents how commodity prices interact with the business cycle. Commodities are influenced by the world activity but can also have a material impact on it.


2020 ◽  
Vol 156 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago E. Alvarez ◽  
Sarah M. Lein

Abstract Using online data for prices and real-time debit card transaction data on changes in expenditures for Switzerland allows us to track inflation on a daily basis. While the daily price index fluctuates around the official price index in normal times, it drops immediately after the lockdown related to the COVID19 pandemic. Official statistics reflect this drop only with a lag, specifically because data collection takes time and is impeded by lockdown conditions. Such daily real-time information can be useful to gauge the relative importance of demand and supply shocks and thus inform policymakers who need to determine appropriate policy measures.


2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (8) ◽  
pp. 1922-1934
Author(s):  
Jean Paul Rabanal ◽  
Olga A. Rabanal

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1978-2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bebonchu Atems ◽  
Mark Melichar

The paper investigates whether US regions respond differently to shocks in the crude oil market. We disentangle oil market shocks into distinct demand and supply shocks and examine the response of regional personal income to these shocks. Results indicate that for most regions, oil supply shocks decrease real personal income. Except for the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest, global aggregate demand shocks are recessionary, typically about a year and a half after the shock. When we split our data into oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions, we find that global aggregate demand shocks have no effect on oil-producing regions but cause a decrease in income in non-oil-producing regions. Our analysis further indicates that oil-specific demand shocks have positive and persistent impacts on oil-producing regions but are recessionary in non-oil-producing regions. We also document significant asymmetries in the regional responses to small versus large oil shocks. In addition, the paper shows that regional differences in industrial composition explain some of the variation in the responses of real regional personal income to oil shocks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7602
Author(s):  
Gal Hochman ◽  
Chrysostomos Tabakis

We investigate the bioelectricity potential of South Korea and the ramifications of the introduction of biomass use in electricity production for the Korean electricity market. The novelty of our study lies in that we consider a broad portfolio of biomass-energy technologies and carefully analyze their potential economic and environmental implications for South Korea given its biomass availability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to attempt this in the context of South Korea. We first offer a preliminary assessment of South Korea’s theoretical biomass potential from forestry residues, livestock manure, and staple crops and of the amount of electricity that could be generated using these different biomass feedstocks. Our analysis suggests that biomass can be used to produce a substantial portion of the total electricity consumed annually in South Korea. In addition, out of all the feedstocks and technologies considered, pyrolysis of forestry residues could potentially impact the electricity market the most. Next, we simulate different bioelectricity supply shocks while randomly perturbing our model’s demand and supply elasticity parameters using the Monte Carlo methodology. Our results demonstrate that the introduction of bioelectricity could significantly affect South Korea’s electricity market as well as its CO2 emissions.


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