Modelling the impact of climate change on disease incidence: a bioclimatic challenge

2004 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaétan Bourgeois ◽  
Alain Bourque ◽  
Gaétan Deaudelin
2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Witono Adiyoga ◽  
Rofik Sinung Basuki

<p>Walaupun masih terdapat ketidakpastian tentang kapan, bagaimana, dan di mana perubahan iklim akan berdampak negatif terhadap produksi pertanian dan ketahanan pangan, sebagian besar ilmuwan sepakat bahwa dampaknya terhadap sektor pertanian di daerah tropis akan semakin parah dibandingkan di daerah temperate. Tujuan penelitian adalah mempelajari persepsi petani tentang dampak perubahan iklim terhadap variabilitas cuaca yang terjadi dan dampak perubahan iklim terhadap usahatani. Penelitian survei dilaksanakan pada ekosistem sayuran di dataran tinggi dan rendah Sulawesi Selatan dari bulan Juni hingga Agustus 2012. Pada setiap ekosistem, 110 petani sayuran dipilih secara acak (total = 220 responden). Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui metode wawancara menggunakan kuesioner terstruktur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar responden lintas ekosistem dan pola musim mempersepsi tiga jenis kejadian alam akibat perubahan iklim secara signifikan yang menempati tiga urutan tertinggi pada awal musim tanam, yaitu (a) pola curah hujan sangat tidak menentu, (b) suhu udara meningkat, dan (c) musim hujan datang lebih awal, diikuti oleh minggu-minggu kering. Mayoritas responden juga mempersepsi tiga jenis kejadian cuaca ekstrim akibat perubahan iklim signifikannya menempati tiga urutan tertinggi, yaitu (a) sinar matahari sangat terik, (b) gelombang dan temperatur udara panas dan (c) kekeringan. Kebakaran hutan, asap hasil pembakaran bahan bakar oleh industri, asap kendaraan bermotor, dan penggundulan hutan secara konsisten, dikemukakan sebagian besar petani lintas ekosistem dan pola musim sebagai faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya perubahan iklim. Sementara itu, separuh lebih responden menyatakan ketidaksetujuan/keragu-raguannya bahwa usahatani sayuran yang dilakukan secara terus menerus, pembakaran limbah tanaman/rumah tangga, penggunaan pupuk/pestisida kimia berlebih, penggunaan kayu bakar, dan penggunaan air irigasi tinggi memberikan kontribusi cukup signifikan terhadap terjadinya perubahan iklim. Sebagian besar responden mempersepsi tiga dampak perubahan iklim terhadap usahatani yang signifikansinya menempati tiga urutan tertinggi, yaitu (a) risiko kegagalan panen yang semakin tinggi, (b) risiko kerugian usahatani yang semakin tinggi dan berpengaruh terhadap keberlanjutan usahatani, serta (c) suhu yang semakin tinggi menyebabkan peningkatan serangan hama dan munculnya hama baru. Kegiatan edukasi terpadu melalui penyuluhan pertanian maupun sekolah lapang iklim perlu terus dilakukan untuk mengoreksi beberapa perbedaan persepsi tentang penyebab perubahan iklim.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Sayuran; Dataran rendah; Dataran tinggi; Variabilitas iklim; Dampak perubahan iklim</p><p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Vegetable farmers’ perception of climate change impacts in South Sulawesi. Even though there are still uncertainties regarding when, how, and where the climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production and food security, most scientists agree that the impact of climate change on agricultural sector is more severe in the tropical regions as compared to the temperate regions. The objective of this study was to examine farmers’ perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on weather/climate variability and on their vegetable farms. A survey was carried out in lowland and highland vegetable areas of South Sulawesi in June until August 2012. In total, there were 220 respondents randomly selected for interview by using a structured questionnaire. Results suggest that most respondents across different ecosystem and seasonal pattern perceive three climates variability as the most important impacts of climate change i.e. (a) high uncertainty of rainfall pattern, (b) increasing air temperature and (c) earlier start of rainy season followed by dry weeks. Those respondents also perceive three most important extreme weathers, such as (a) intense heat/sun, (b) hot air temperature and waves and (c) long dry season. Forest fire, smoke from industrial fuel burning, smoke from motor vehicles and deforestation are consistently identified as factors that significantly contribute to the existence of climate change. Meanwhile, more than half of respondents are disagree or in doubt that continuous vegetable cultivation, crop/household waste, excessive use of fertilizers, and pesticides, use of cooking woods, and excessive use of irrigation water as factors that contribute to climate change. Most respondents perceive three most important impacts of climate change to their vegetable farms i.e. (a) increasing crop failure risk, (b) increasing financial loss risk that directly affects farm sustainability, and (c) increasing air temperature that tends to increase more severe pest/disease incidence and bring out new pests and diseases. A concerted educative effort through agricultural extension or climate field school should be carried out, especially to correct some misperceptions regarding causes of climate change.</p>


Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.


2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu Weiwei ◽  
Xu Haigen ◽  
Wu Jun ◽  
Cao Mingchang

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devin Castendyk ◽  
◽  
Maciej K. Obryk ◽  
Sasha Z. Leidman ◽  
Michael Gooseff ◽  
...  

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