The International Politics of Water Security in Central Asia

Water security in Central Asia has been discussed by researchers and international organizations using hydrological, engineering, and modeling approaches. Various frameworks conceptualize water security through technical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. This study attempts to identify the current trends of perceptions of experts about water security in Central Asian countries and Afghanistan as assessed through different regional and international experts with relevant knowledge and experience. The experts originate from diverse professional backgrounds like ministries, NGOs, international organizations, research, and academic institutes. The analysis was conducted through the Delphi approach, which has been widely used to identify experts' views by reaching a consensus on various subjects. The Delphi method assisted in the elicitation of experts' opinions about different water security dimensions in the overall region and each Central Asia country that have been suggested from the relevant literature. The two-round questionnaire was developed to infer the experts' views (round 1) on water security in Central Asia and then identify the agreement's rate with the initial findings (round 2). The results have shown that, while the relevant scientific literature gives priority to environmental factors, the experts emphasize water security's economic aspects. Experts suggested including transboundary challenges, legislative and institutional weaknesses in assessing water security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Respondents highlighted the low effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the current institutions and mechanisms that dealt with water security-related issues in Central Asia and suggested strengthening water governance in the region.

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A Hydrologic Monitoring Dataset for Food and Water Security Applications in Central Asia

10.5194/essd-2021-420 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Amy McNally ◽

Jossy Jacob ◽

Kristi Arsenault ◽

Kimberly Slinski ◽

Daniel Sarmiento ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Asia ◽

Data Streams ◽

Land Surface ◽

Data Stream ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Value Added ◽

Water Security ◽

Humanitarian Assistance ◽

Economic Market ◽

Land Data Assimilation System

Abstract. From the Hindu Kush Mountains to the Registan desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams described here combine meteorological reanalysis datasets and land surface models to generate routine estimates of snow-covered fraction, snow water equivalent, soil moisture, runoff and other variables representing the water and energy balance. This approach allows us to fill the gap created by the lack of in situ hydrologic data in the region. First, we describe the configuration of the FLDAS and the two resultant data streams: one, global, at ~1 month latency, provides monthly average outputs on a 10 km2 grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia, at ~1 day latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km2 grid from 2001–present. We describe our verification of these data that are compared to other remotely sensed estimates as well as qualitative field reports. These data and value-added products (e.g., anomalies and interactive time series) are hosted by NASA and USGS data portals for public use. The global data stream with a longer record, is useful for exploring interannual variability, relationships with atmospheric-oceanic teleconnections (e.g., ENSO), trends over time, and monitoring drought. Meanwhile, the higher spatial resolution Central Asia data stream, with lower latency, is useful for simulating snow-hydrologic dynamics in complex topography for monitoring snowpack and flood risk.

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Water security in Central Asia and Southern Caucasus

Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal ◽

10.18356/26178419-27-1-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

pp. 75-93

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Central Asia ◽

Water Security ◽

Southern Caucasus

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Assessing Water Security in Central Asia through a Delphi Approach

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1472 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Aliya Assubayeva ◽

Stefanos Xenarios ◽

Albina Li ◽

Siamac Fazli

Keyword(s):

Central Asia ◽

Water Policy ◽

Water Security ◽

Vital Role ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Behavioral Patterns ◽

Agglomerative Clustering ◽

Agreement Rate ◽

Delphi Approach ◽

Survey Round

Water security in Central Asia (CA) plays a vital role because of transboundary river systems and interconnected infrastructure assets. Each CA country has differently contextualized the water security notion to serve national priorities and needs. Various scholars have studied and interpreted the concept of water security in CA through economic, environmental, social, and technical perspectives. Yet however, there is very little information on the perceptions of policymakers and water professionals that are directly engaged with the water policy discourse in the CA region.In this regard, we attempted to identify policy makers and water professionals' views on water management and security aspects in CA. &#160;A Delphi method was introduced through a two-round survey to decision-makers and water professionals to assess the rate of agreement on different water security dimensions that have been identified through a thorough literature review.Namely, the dimensions associated with urban & household facilities, economic activities, environmental aspects and natural hazards were assessed, whereas different attributes related to each dimension were also considered. The first survey round explored the rate of agreement in the following six different sections: the proposed water security dimensions (1) and attributes (2) in CA; historical trends and dynamics of each dimension (3) and the implications on a policy level (4); the national priorities for each country (5); and the effectiveness of mechanisms dealing with regional water security issues (6). &#160;The second round synopsized the initial findings by exploring whether a higher agreement rate was attained in each of the sections mentioned above.&#160;Clustering analysis was applied to better identify the agreement rate and assess decision-makers and water professionals' behavioral patterns within the two-survey rounds.&#160; A number of clustering techniques were tested out. Methods such as K-Medoids, Spectral, Hierarchical, and Agglomerative clustering, as well as the Affinity Propagation, were applied. Hyperparameters were chosen based on the observations of how well the clusters are formed, i.e., how similar the responses are within the cluster and how much they differ from other clusters. The clustering was applied to the whole range of responses, as well as separately on different sections of the surveys. &#160;The findings indicate that the clustering of all six parts did not clearly define separation and distinctive agreement rates in the first survey round. However, when the clustering was performed within specific sections, e.g., the national priorities in each country, behavioral patterns were revealed among respondents. The clustering trends among sections became more apparent in the second survey round. &#160;Our preliminary findings indicate that a set of socio-demographic and professional-related features of the participants are aligned with the patterns of the clustering outcomes on water security priorities in CA. The study findings could identify the major challenges that policymakers and water professionals face being mutually addressed by improving water security dialogue in the CA region.

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