Investor sentiment and mutual fund stock picking

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Timothy K. Chue ◽  
G. Mujtaba Mian

The author compares the relative response of Treasury fund flows to the sentiment-prone Michigan Survey of Inflation Expectations and to the Blue Chip Survey of Financial Forecasts, a professional forecast of inflation. The Treasury market is an ideal subject for examining whether or not sentiment affects flows: it is highly liquid, making it unlikely that it is hard to arbitrage, and inflation is the primary factor affecting its returns. Using mutual fund inflows into TIPs and Treasury mutual funds that occurred between January 1991 and June 2011, the author finds that the Michigan Survey is insignificantly related to flows into inflation-indexed TIPs and is positively related to flows into nominal Treasury funds. The Blue Chip Survey does not have incremental explanatory power. The evidence is consistent with a combination of a hedging motive and a flight to liquidity triggered by information in the Michigan Survey about households’ perception of financial market risk. The two motives reinforce each other in driving flows into nominal Treasury funds when the Michigan forecast of inflation is high, while they appear to cancel each other out in determining flows into the illiquid TIPS market.


2012 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 363-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azi Ben-Rephael ◽  
Shmuel Kandel ◽  
Avi Wohl

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-135
Author(s):  
Pick-Soon Ling ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim

Background and Purpose: Studies focusing on mutual fund managerial abilities and investment style strategies are still scarce in the literature. Thus, this study aims to provide new evidence and insights into the managerial abilities and investment style performances of Malaysian fund managers.   Methodology: A total of 444 Malaysian equity mutual funds (EMFs) were evaluated using Carhart’s model incorporated with Treynor-Mazuy (T-M) and Henriksson-Merton (H-M) market timing models for the study period, from January 1995 to December 2017.   Findings: Fund managers displayed superior stock selection skills with 32 percent and 43 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively, with perverse market timing ability which accounted for 39 percent and 42 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively. Perverse timing ability had reduced the superior stock-picking skills of fund managers. This suggests that the EMFs performance could further improve if respective fund managers perform better in market timing ability. The finding also indicates that size effect (SMB) and value effect (HML) play significant roles in investment style strategies, while results of momentum factor (WML) propose that Malaysian fund managers have followed the contrarian strategy.   Contributions: This study contributes in several ways especially in the literature of portfolio management as the evidence is obtained from the largest mutual funds sample size and the longest study period. Moreover, this study also used the highest frequency data to study the effects of market timing which were overlooked in previous studies.   Keywords: Adjusted carhart, Malaysian market, market timing, mutual fund, stock selection.   Cite as: Ling, P-S., & Abdul-Rahim, R. (2021). Managerial abilities and factor investment style performances of Malaysian mutual funds.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 118-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp118-135


2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. S157-S184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pankaj K. Agarwal ◽  
H. K. Pradhan

In contrast to developed countries, Indian capital markets do not exhibit strong efficiency and therefore it appears possible that fund managers beat the benchmarks. We examine the existence of superior performance of open-ended equity mutual funds in India with various models including traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)-based as well as recent Fama–French–Carhart (FFC)-factors-based models. We use a survivorship-bias free database including all schemes since inception till recently. We found evidence of stock picking and timing abilities in Indian fund managers. Our results are robust to changes in benchmarks, return frequency, and effects of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC).


2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (12) ◽  
pp. 5505-5531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Grinblatt ◽  
Gergana Jostova ◽  
Lubomir Petrasek ◽  
Alexander Philipov

Classifying mandatory 13F stockholding filings by manager type reveals that hedge fund strategies are mostly contrarian, and mutual fund strategies are largely trend following. The only institutional performers—the two thirds of hedge fund managers that are contrarian—earn alpha of 2.4% per year. Contrarian hedge fund managers tend to trade profitably with all other manager types, especially when purchasing stocks from momentum-oriented hedge and mutual fund managers. Superior contrarian hedge fund performance exhibits persistence and stems from stock-picking ability rather than liquidity provision. Aggregate short sales further support these conclusions about the style and skill of various fund manager types. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.


2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jen-Sin Lee ◽  
Pi-Hsia Yen ◽  
Kam C. Chan

Author(s):  
A. H. El-Gayar ◽  
◽  
I. A. El-Hayes ◽  
S. Metawa ◽  
◽  
...  

Behavioral finance is a recent approach in financial markets that have appeared because of the complexities long faced by the traditional or neoclassical finance theory. This paper investigates the influence of investor sentiment and herding behaviour on stock market liquidity using an empirical study on the Egyptian Stock Market. We examine the direct impact of Egyptian investor sentiment on the Egyptian Stock Market liquidity. As well as the indirect impact of the Egyptian investor sentiment on the Egyptian Stock Market liquidity through the Egyptian investor herding behaviour. Therefore, the major contribution is filling the gap of indirect sentiment-liquidity impact conflict. We use the monthly data of the EGX30 index from January 2004 up to December 2018 for building up investor sentiment index, investor herding behaviour, and stock market liquidity measures. Moreover, we are using two additional types of data (closed-end mutual fund discounts and the equity open-end mutual fund flows) that represent major measures which are used to build up investor sentiment index ranging through the same time-series of the previously mentioned period of this paper. Additionally, we use four control variables for stock market liquidity, namely market volatility, excess market return, term spread, and lag of the dependent variable, considering that the fourth variable is also used for investor herding behaviour. Our result shows that the investor sentiment index has both a direct and indirect impact on stock market liquidity. In addition, regarding event study analysis’ results, there are different signs of the direct and indirect impacts and different correlations between the research variables throughout the four different events that differ completely from the usual signs and correlations of the theoretical background.


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