Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis Stadtland ◽  
Matthias Hollweg ◽  
Nikolaus Kleindienst ◽  
Julia Dietl ◽  
Ursula Reich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

Review of Risk Assessment Instruments for Juvenile Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Hempel ◽  
Nicole Buck ◽  
Maaike Cima ◽  
Hjalmar van Marle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Offence ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Assessment Protocol

Risk assessment is considered to be a key element in the prevention of recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs), often by imposing long-term consequences based on that assessment. The authors reviewed the literature on the predictive accuracy of six well-known risk assessment instruments used to appraise risk among JSOs: the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), Juvenile Sexual Offence Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS), Structured Assessment of Violent Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Hare Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Through a systematic search, 19 studies were reviewed. Studies showed differences in the predictive accuracies for general, violent, and sexual recidivism, and none of the instruments showed unequivocal positive results in predicting future offending. Not unexpectedly, the accuracy of the SAVRY and PCL:YV appeared to be weaker for sexual recidivism compared with specialized tools such as the J-SOAP-II or the ERASOR. Because of the rapid development of juveniles, it is questionable to impose long-term restrictions based on a risk assessment only. New challenges in improving risk assessment are discussed.

scholarly journals An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 107906321988457
Author(s):  
I Ting Tsao ◽  
Chi Meng Chu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist Revised

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments’ total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-219
Author(s):  
Leonel C. Gonçalves ◽  
Juliane Gerth ◽  
Astrid Rossegger ◽  
Thomas Noll ◽  
Jérôme Endrass
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Cut Score ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

The Impact of Using Documented but Uncharged Offense Data on JSORRAT-II Predictive Validity

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Ralston ◽  
Amar Sarkar ◽  
Grace T. Philipp ◽  
Douglas L. Epperson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Sexual Offender Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sexual Offender ◽  
The Impact

Following the implementation of sexual offender notification laws, researchers have found a drop in the rate of prosecutions and an increase in plea bargains for sexual offenses committed by male juveniles. This type of prosecutorial hesitation has implications for the predictive validity of sexual recidivism risk assessments, such as the Juvenile Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (JSORRAT-II), that require data from officially adjudicated offenses in the scoring of several items. The present study sought to test the impact of including data from documented but uncharged (DBU) sexual offenses in the scoring of the JSORRAT-II on its predictive validity using an exhaustive sample of 1,095 juveniles who offended sexually from the states of Iowa and Utah. Although sexual recidivists had significantly more DBU data, the inclusion of those data did not improve the predictive validity of the tool. The authors discuss additional reasons why changes in prosecutorial practice might remain confound in risk assessment studies and suggest future research to investigate those hypotheses.

The Adam Walsh Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 722-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Michael Miner ◽  
Jill Levenson ◽  
Raymond Knight ◽  
Elizabeth Letourneau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
State Classification ◽  
Adam Walsh Act ◽  
Tier 3

This study was designed to compare the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments and existing state classification schemes in their respective abilities to identify sex offenders at high risk to re-offend. Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four states were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders, and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing state tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. As well, we examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half score low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (16) ◽  
pp. 1928-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

The Effect of Sample Heterogeneity and Risk Categorization on Area Under the Curve Predictive Validity Metrics

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip D. Howard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sentence Type ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sample Composition ◽  
Sample Heterogeneity ◽  
Risk Categorization

Forensic researchers often assume that the widely used area under the curve (AUC) predictive validity statistic can be readily compared across risk assessment instruments and between studies. From risk distributions for 224,771 convicted English and Welsh offenders, I quantify the extent to which the AUCs of two continuously scored actuarial instruments are dependent upon sample heterogeneity and risk categorization. Sample composition can cause predictive validity to vary by 10% to 20% over chance between subpopulations, with higher AUCs for female subgroups whose scores have high variability, and lower AUCs when sampling is restricted by index offense and/or sentence type. Risk categorization has a potentially large effect on AUCs, which fall when few categories are used, especially when those categories contain unequal numbers of offenders. An improved understanding of how these factors can affect AUCs will inform professionals using risk assessment instruments and researchers comparing the validity of multiple instruments.

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