Risk Assessment and Schemes for Sexual Recidivism: A 25 Year Follow-Up of Convicted Sex Offenders Referred to the Massachusetts Treatment Center, 1959-1984

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Knight ◽  
David Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Treatment Center ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-219
Author(s):  
Leonel C. Gonçalves ◽  
Juliane Gerth ◽  
Astrid Rossegger ◽  
Thomas Noll ◽  
Jérôme Endrass
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Cut Score ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis Stadtland ◽  
Matthias Hollweg ◽  
Nikolaus Kleindienst ◽  
Julia Dietl ◽  
Ursula Reich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (16) ◽  
pp. 1928-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

Adjusting Actuarial Violence Risk Assessments Based on Aging or the Passage of Time

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant T. Harris ◽  
Marnie E. Rice
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Incremental Validity ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide ◽  
Violent Recidivism

Two studies herein address age, the passage of time since the first offense, time spent incarcerated, or time spent offense free in the community as empirically justified postevaluation adjustments in forensic violence risk assessment. Using three non-overlapping samples of violent offenders, the first study examined whether any of three variables (time elapsed since the first offense, time spent incarcerated, and age at release) were related to violent recidivism or made an incremental contribution to the prediction of violent recidivism after age at first offense was considered. Time since first offense and time spent incarcerated were uninformative. Age at release predicted violent recidivism but not as well as age at first offense, and it afforded no independent incremental validity. For sex offenders, age at first offense improved the prediction of violent and sexual recidivism. In the second study, time spent offense-free while at risk was related to violent recidivism such that an actuarial adjustment for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide could be derived. The results support the use of adjustments (based on the passage of time) to actuarial scores, but only adjustments that are themselves actuarial.

Comparing Predictive Validity of JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪ With Sexually Abusive Youth in Long-Term Residential Custody

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 2937-2953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucinda A. Lee Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Residential Treatment Facility ◽  
Sexually Abusive ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Representative Samples

This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study sample consisted of 129 male adjudicated adolescents housed in a secured residential treatment facility for sexually abusive youth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that MEGA♪ Risk Scale was mildly predictive of sexual recidivism over a 6-year period (mean follow-up = 15.6 months)—area under the curve (AUC) = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.52, 0.82]; p < .015. JSORRAT-II was not predictive (AUC = .57; 95% CI = [0.42, 0.72]; p < .297). The study contributes to scant literature on the most contemporary, statistically robust risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth.

New Jersey's Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale: Preliminary Validity Data

1998 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn E. Ferguson ◽  
Roy J. Eidelson ◽  
Philip H. Witt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Scale ◽  
Treatment Center ◽  
Offender Treatment ◽  
Community Notification ◽  
Adult Males ◽  
Validity Data

The Registrant Risk Assessment Scale (RRAS) was developed to aid New Jersey law enforcement representatives in assigning convicted sex offenders to risk tier classifications. The three risk tier classifications (low, moderate, and high risk) are linked to corresponding levels of community notification. The present study examined the scores of 574 adult males convicted of sex offenses in New Jersey on the seven RRAS items that assess static indicators of recidivism risk. Based on sentencing decisions, the sample included three groups of offenders: probationers, state prisoners, and those assigned to the Adult Diagnostic and Treatment Center (ADTC), an inpatient sex offender treatment facility for repetitive and compulsive offenders. An exploratory factor analysis of the RRAS items identified two important orthogonal factors: a forcible assault factor and a sexual deviance factor. One-way ANOVAs revealed significant differences among the three placement groups, with state prisoners tending to score highest on items reflecting antisocial orientation and forcible sexual assault and ADTC offenders scoring highest on items reflecting deviant sexual behavior. A discriminant analysis generated two distinct functions that classified well over half of the sample into their correct sentencing groups. Taken as a whole, the results provide preliminary support for the use of the RRAS in making sex offender risk determinations.

Psychopathy and Sexual Aggression: Management Implications

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2110226
Author(s):  
Sonja Krstic ◽  
Danielle Arlanda Harris ◽  
Raymond A. Knight
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Treatment Center ◽  
Child Victims ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist ◽  
R Factor ◽  
Aggression Management ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist Revised ◽  
Long Term Follow Up

The current study explored the association between psychopathic traits and release suitability decisions and examined the role of Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and Static-99 in predicting general and sexual recidivism. The sample included 207 adult male sex offenders involved in the long-term follow-up at the Massachusetts Treatment Center for Sexually Dangerous Persons (MTC) in Bridgewater, Massachusetts. Contrary to our expectations, PCL-R Factor 2 (Lifestyle/Antisocial) scores were positively associated with being selected for gradual release, whereas PCL-R Factor 1 (Interpersonal/Affective) scores were not related to parole boards’ decisions. Additionally, the interaction between the two factors was a significant predictor, suggesting that the individuals with more pronounced Factor 1 traits were less likely to be released when their Factor 2 scores were high as well. Although Static-99 scores predicted both contact and non-contact sexual recidivism, psychopathy was not related to reoffending, possibly because offenders with child victims were over-represented in the sample.

Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 2063-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
External Risk

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual’s risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

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