Review of Risk Assessment Instruments for Juvenile Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Hempel ◽  
Nicole Buck ◽  
Maaike Cima ◽  
Hjalmar van Marle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Offence ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Assessment Protocol

Risk assessment is considered to be a key element in the prevention of recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs), often by imposing long-term consequences based on that assessment. The authors reviewed the literature on the predictive accuracy of six well-known risk assessment instruments used to appraise risk among JSOs: the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), Juvenile Sexual Offence Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS), Structured Assessment of Violent Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Hare Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Through a systematic search, 19 studies were reviewed. Studies showed differences in the predictive accuracies for general, violent, and sexual recidivism, and none of the instruments showed unequivocal positive results in predicting future offending. Not unexpectedly, the accuracy of the SAVRY and PCL:YV appeared to be weaker for sexual recidivism compared with specialized tools such as the J-SOAP-II or the ERASOR. Because of the rapid development of juveniles, it is questionable to impose long-term restrictions based on a risk assessment only. New challenges in improving risk assessment are discussed.

Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis Stadtland ◽  
Matthias Hollweg ◽  
Nikolaus Kleindienst ◽  
Julia Dietl ◽  
Ursula Reich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

The juvenile sex offender

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrien Bijleveld ◽  
Chantal van den Berg ◽  
Jan Hendriks
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Criminal Career ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Crucial Information

Juvenile sexual offending is often regarded as a precursor of serious and continued sexual offending in adulthood, but there has been little empirical evidence supporting this assumption. Could juvenile sexual offending be just a ‘passing phase’? The study discussed in this essay follows the criminal career about 1,600 juvenile sex offenders from early adolescence into adulthood. A comprehensive view of the entire criminal career is presented to establish whether juvenile sexual offending is a precursor of continued (sexual) offending in adulthood or if (sexual) offending is non-chronic for most. The sexual recidivists in the sample are identified, and this group is used to establish the risk factors associated with continued sexual offending. These risk factors are compared to the ones used in risk assessment instruments for (juvenile) sex offenders. This study holds crucial information for policy and theory regarding juvenile sex offenders.

The Adam Walsh Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 722-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Michael Miner ◽  
Jill Levenson ◽  
Raymond Knight ◽  
Elizabeth Letourneau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
State Classification ◽  
Adam Walsh Act ◽  
Tier 3

This study was designed to compare the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments and existing state classification schemes in their respective abilities to identify sex offenders at high risk to re-offend. Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four states were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders, and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing state tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. As well, we examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half score low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (16) ◽  
pp. 1928-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

Assessment of Sex Offenders With the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality /Inventory–2–Restructured Form

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony M. Tarescavage ◽  
Bruce M. Cappo ◽  
Yossef S. Ben-Porath
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory ◽  
Personality Inventory ◽  
Offender Treatment ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Normative Sample ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

This study examined the association between scores on the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–2–Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) with static and dynamic risk assessment instruments, including the STATIC-99 and Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R). The sample included 304 male adults who were convicted of sexual offenses against children and were referred to a sex offender treatment program. On average, the sample had a Low-Moderate risk of re-offending according to the STATIC-99 and LSI-R. The results indicated that MMPI-2-RF scale scores in this setting are characterized by relatively high levels of under-reporting and externalizing psychopathology compared with the normative sample. We also found that scale scores in this sample produced reliability estimates that were similar to the normative sample. Finally, external correlations between the MMPI-2-RF scales and the risk assessment instruments indicated that the test was associated in expected ways with constructs measured by these instruments. Correlations were most robust among scales in the externalizing/behavioral dysfunction domain of the MMPI-2-RF. Overall, the results of the study support and guide use of the test in this population.

Comment on “The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations”

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1236-1241
Author(s):  
Christopher Lobanov-Rostovsky
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Potential Confounding Variable ◽  
Standards And Guidelines ◽  
And Behavior

The work of the Colorado Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB) has been called into question as a result of the manuscript “The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on the Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations” published in Criminal Justice and Behavior (2017). This response covers the following areas: significant nomenclature problems used to describe the Adult Standards and Guidelines, the dated nature of the SOMB citations in the manuscript, the flaws in the interpretation of the use of the 17 SOMB risk factors and the SOMB policy related to risk assessment, a potential confounding variable that may explain the results obtained, and finally the work of the SOMB to foster the use of validated risk assessment instruments and evidence-based policies and practices. The SOMB takes pride in providing up-to-date, research-supported practices for its providers and would never intentionally do otherwise, as suggested by the article.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Another Piece of the Puzzle

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda M. Fanniff ◽  
Elizabeth J. Letourneau
Keyword(s):  
Psychometric Properties ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Protocol ◽  
Sexual Drive ◽  
Treatment Data ◽  
Offender Assessment

The authors reviewed nine studies examining psychometric properties of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and examined the psychometric properties of the J-SOAP-II when items were scored based on probation records obtained at or near disposition and prior to treatment. Data from 73 boys ages 12 to 17 who participated in a larger randomized clinical trial informed this study. Reliability (internal consistency and interrater agreement) and validity (concurrent, discriminant, and predictive) were examined. Scale 1, Sexual Drive/Preoccupation, was characterized by adequate reliability and concurrent validity but did not predict scores on a measure of concerning sexual behavior. This is consistent with seven studies that failed to find evidence of predictive validity using measures of sexual recidivism. Also consistent with the literature, Scale 2, Impulsive/Antisocial Behavior, performed well with respect to nearly all psychometric properties including predictive validity. Review of remaining scales and scores and clinical policy implications are discussed.

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