Violence During Imprisonment, Forensic Psychiatric Care, and Probation: Correlations and Predictive Validity of the Risk Assessment Instruments COVR, LSI-R, HCR-20V3, and SAPROF

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mats Persson ◽  
Henrik Belfrage ◽  
Björn Fredriksson ◽  
Marianne Kristiansson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Psychiatric Care ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis Stadtland ◽  
Matthias Hollweg ◽  
Nikolaus Kleindienst ◽  
Julia Dietl ◽  
Ursula Reich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

scholarly journals Gender-Sensitive Violence Risk Assessment: Predictive Validity of Six Tools in Female Forensic Psychiatric Patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 528-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivienne de Vogel ◽  
Mieke Bruggeman ◽  
Marike Lancel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk Management ◽  
Violence Risk Assessment ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

Most violence risk assessment tools have been validated predominantly in males. In this multicenter study, the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 Version 3 (HCR-20V3), Female Additional Manual (FAM), Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF), and Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) were coded on file information of 78 female forensic psychiatric patients discharged between 1993 and 2012 with a mean follow-up period of 11.8 years from one of four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Notable was the high rate of mortality (17.9%) and readmission to psychiatric settings (11.5%) after discharge. Official reconviction data could be retrieved from the Ministry of Justice and Security for 71 women. Twenty-four women (33.8%) were reconvicted after discharge, including 13 for violent offenses (18.3%). Overall, predictive validity was moderate for all types of recidivism, but low for violence. The START Vulnerability scores, HCR-20V3, and FAM showed the highest predictive accuracy for all recidivism. With respect to violent recidivism, only the START Vulnerability scores and the Clinical scale of the HCR-20V3 demonstrated significant predictive accuracy.

The Effect of Sample Heterogeneity and Risk Categorization on Area Under the Curve Predictive Validity Metrics

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip D. Howard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sentence Type ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sample Composition ◽  
Sample Heterogeneity ◽  
Risk Categorization

Forensic researchers often assume that the widely used area under the curve (AUC) predictive validity statistic can be readily compared across risk assessment instruments and between studies. From risk distributions for 224,771 convicted English and Welsh offenders, I quantify the extent to which the AUCs of two continuously scored actuarial instruments are dependent upon sample heterogeneity and risk categorization. Sample composition can cause predictive validity to vary by 10% to 20% over chance between subpopulations, with higher AUCs for female subgroups whose scores have high variability, and lower AUCs when sampling is restricted by index offense and/or sentence type. Risk categorization has a potentially large effect on AUCs, which fall when few categories are used, especially when those categories contain unequal numbers of offenders. An improved understanding of how these factors can affect AUCs will inform professionals using risk assessment instruments and researchers comparing the validity of multiple instruments.

scholarly journals Prevention of Dangerous Acts of Persons with Mental Disorders: Organization, Statistics, Trends

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 791-802
Author(s):  
Oxana Makushkina ◽  
Svetlana Polubinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Mentally Ill ◽  
Psychiatric Care ◽  
Mental Condition ◽  
Mentally Disordered ◽  
Dangerous Behavior ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric ◽  
Care System

Dangerous and violent acts of mentally disordered persons that pose a threat to the health and lives of people around them frequently attract the media attention and become a subject of public debates. Prevention of such actions is one of the most important tasks of the psychiatric care system. This article describes the organization of psychiatric prevention at federal and regional levels, involving all medical organizations that provide outpatient and inpatient psychiatric care. The primary focus is on forensic psychiatric prevention of dangerous behavior of the mentally ill. One of the forms of preventive measures is active dispensary observation of patients prone to dangerous acts due to their mental condition. This observation is carried out by medical organizations together with the internal affairs’ agencies. However, the key issue of forensic psychiatric prevention is the execution of the compulsory medical measures imposed by the court and provided for by the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Besides, the measures aimed at preventing repeat crimes also include psychiatric care of convicts as a separate branch of forensic psychiatric prevention. The authors present the data of ten-year monitoring of medical services that make it possible to assess the scope, main directions and effectiveness of prevention. This investigation uses the data from the state statistical reports for the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2008 to 2017. On this basis, the authors identify the trends in prevention of the dangerous acts of mentally disordered offenders in the psychiatric care system and formulate the main directions for the improvement. In this connection, the authors pay special attention to the use of standardized risk assessment tools to predict dangerous behavior of the mentally ill as one of the ways to increase the effectiveness of psychiatric prevention. Such tools are widely used in foreign forensic psychiatric practice, as well as in criminal justice institutions. The authors describe principal methodological approaches to the development of such tools in foreign and domestic research. According to the authors, the use of such techniques for the risk assessment of dangerous behavior in mentally disordered persons and the development of individual medical and rehabilitation plans on their basis would expand the possibilities for forensic psychiatric prevention.

A Meta-Analysis of Juvenile Justice Risk Assessment Instruments

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (11) ◽  
pp. 1367-1381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwalbe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Female Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Case Processing ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Gender Biases ◽  
Meta Analyses

Juvenile justice systems have widely adopted risk assessment instruments to support judicial and administrative decisions about sanctioning severity and restrictiveness of care. A little explored property of these instruments is the extent to which their predictive validity generalizes across gender. The article reports on a meta-analysis of risk assessment predictive validity with male and female offenders. Nineteen studies encompassing 20 unique samples met inclusion criteria. Findings indicated that predictive validity estimates are equivalent for male and female offenders and are consistent with results of other meta-analyses in the field. The findings also indicate that when gender differences are observed in individual studies, they provide evidence for gender biases in juvenile justice decision-making and case processing rather than for the ineffectiveness of risk assessment with female offenders.

scholarly journals Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence in forensic psychiatric hospitals: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 47-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taanvi Ramesh ◽  
Artemis Igoumenou ◽  
Maria Vazquez Montes ◽  
Seena Fazel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Psychiatric Inpatient ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitals ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

AbstractBackground and Aims:Violent behaviour by forensic psychiatric inpatients is common. We aimed to systematically review the performance of structured risk assessment tools for violence in these settings.Methods:The nine most commonly used violence risk assessment instruments used in psychiatric hospitals were examined. A systematic search of five databases (CINAHL, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO and PubMed) was conducted to identify studies examining the predictive accuracy of these tools in forensic psychiatric inpatient settings. Risk assessment instruments were separated into those designed for imminent (within 24 hours) violence prediction and those designed for longer-term prediction. A range of accuracy measures and descriptive variables were extracted. A quality assessment was performed for each eligible study using the QUADAS-2. Summary performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, and area under the curve value) and HSROC curves were produced. In addition, meta-regression analyses investigated study and sample effects on tool performance.Results:Fifty-two eligible publications were identified, of which 43 provided information on tool accuracy in the form of AUC statistics. These provided data on 78 individual samples, with information on 6,840 patients. Of these, 35 samples (3,306 patients from 19 publications) provided data on all performance measures. The median AUC value for the wider group of 78 samples was higher for imminent tools (AUC 0.83; IQR: 0.71–0.85) compared with longer-term tools (AUC 0.68; IQR: 0.62-0.75). Other performance measures indicated variable accuracy for imminent and longer-term tools. Meta-regression indicated that no study or sample-related characteristics were associated with between-study differences in AUCs.Interpretation:The performance of current tools in predicting risk of violence beyond the first few days is variable, and the selection of which tool to use in clinical practice should consider accuracy estimates. For more imminent violence, however, there is evidence in support of brief scalable assessment tools.

Predictive Validity of Pretrial Risk Assessments: A Systematic Review of the Literature

2020 ◽  
pp. 009385482093295
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Desmarais ◽  
Samantha A. Zottola ◽  
Sarah E. Duhart Clarke ◽  
Evan M. Lowder
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Ethnic Subgroups ◽  
Potential Strategy ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
White Defendants

Bail reform is sweeping the nation and many jurisdictions are looking to pretrial risk assessment as one potential strategy to support these efforts. This article summarizes the findings of a systematic review of research examining the predictive validity of pretrial risk assessments. We reviewed 11 studies (13 publications) examining the predictive validity of six pretrial risk assessment instruments reported in the gray and peer-reviewed literature as of December, 2018. Findings typically show good to excellent predictive validity. Differences in predictive validity for men and women were mixed and small. When it could be examined, predictive validity was generally comparable across racial/ethnic subgroups; however, three comparisons revealed notably lower, albeit still fair to good, predictive validity for defendants of color than White defendants. Findings suggest that pretrial risk assessments predict pretrial outcomes with acceptable accuracy, but also emphasize the need for continued investigation of predictive validity across gender and racial/ethnic subgroups.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document