Relative age effect on the market value of elite European football players: a balanced sample approach

Abstract We test for the existence of relative age effects in professional American football. In a sample of 18,898 football players born on or after 1940, there is an excess of January and February births – consistent with a relative age effect associated with calendar year – as well as a slight increase in September births – consistent with the fact that some football players we analyze attended high school in states with fall school cutoff dates. We consider the possibility that relative age effects may affect skilled football positions more than positions relying heavily on player weight, and we find suggestive evidence of this. Lastly, and contrary to what has recently been shown in professional hockey, we find no evidence that misguided preferences for relatively older players lead to selection-based inefficiencies in football player drafting. Our results have implications for evaluating potential football players and speak broadly to the role of physiological factors beyond player control on athletic success.

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The relative age effect in FIFA U-17 World Cup: The role of the playing position and the continent

Baltic Journal of Health and Physical Activity ◽

10.29359/bjhpa.12.2.02 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 12-18

Author(s):

ALI IŞIN ◽

TUBA MELEKOĞLU

Keyword(s):

South America ◽

Odds Ratio ◽

Age Effect ◽

Group Differences ◽

Football Players ◽

World Cup ◽

Chi Square ◽

Relative Age ◽

Relative Age Effect

Background: The aim of this study was to examine the relative age effect of the countries which attended the 2017 FIFA U-17 World Cup and to research the relative age effect in terms of continents and the players’ position. Material and methods: 504 male football players from 24 countries which participated in the U-17 World Cup in India in 2017 were included in the study. Football players’ dates of birth were grouped into periods of three months in quarter years (Q): Q1 – January-March, Q2 – April-June, Q3 – July-September, Q4 – October-December. To study the sub-group differences of the relative age effect, meaningful chi-square (χ²) values were followed by calculating the odds ratio and %95 confidence intervals. To determine the effect size, Cramer’s V was used. Results: The relative age effect was based on quarter years’ distributions. Significant differences were found among age quartiles for all teams in FIFA U-17 World Cup. However, when the variables analysed were according to the continents, the relative age effect disappeared in Africa, Asia and Oceania. Conclusions: In the comparison of the players’ continents, a relative age effect was observed in Europe, North America, and South America. When the players’ positions are compared, a relative age effect was found in defenders, midfielders and forward players.

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Relative age effect při Mistrovství Evropy ve fotbalu 2016

Studia sportiva ◽

10.5817/sts2017-1-35 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 182-191

Author(s):

Michal Bozděch ◽

Roman Kolínský ◽

Kateřina Strašilová ◽

Jiří Zháněl

Keyword(s):

Statistical Analysis ◽

Age Effect ◽

Research Data ◽

Similar Degree ◽

Relative Age ◽

Elite Group ◽

Relative Age Effect ◽

Individual Player ◽

European Football ◽

Player Positions

The theory called the Relative Age Effect (RAE) has been discussed in many sports for decades. It is based on the assumption that athletes born in the early months of the year have an advantage over the athletes born later in that particular year. The influence of earlier birthdate was proved particularly during adolescence, relatively younger individuals are often more advanced mentally and physically as well as in terms of fitness. Therefore, they are usually labelled as sports talents. This benefit can significantly affect the probability of being selected into elite group of athletes or national teams. In the present research we investigated whether the effect of RAE can be proven in the players in the European Football Championship 2016. The research sample included players from all 24 participating teams (n = 552), the research data were obtained from http://www.eurofotbal.cz/euro-20/ and were analysed based on selected criteria (player position, date of birth, ranking in the groups). Statistical analysis of the research data showed that the influence of RAE is statistically significant in all players in the championship (χ2 = 69,82, p = 0.00). The analysis of the influence of RAE on rank in the group showed that the influence of the RAE. When considering the influence of the RAE on individual player positions, the effect was nonsignificant only in forward position players (χ2 = 6,37, p = 0.09). The above results showed a similar degree of influence of RAE on adult footballers (participants of ME 2016), then it is in youth age categories. RAE issues in sport can be considered as significant and especially coaches in youth categories should be familiar with it.

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The Relative Age Effect in Spanish Female Soccer Players. Influence of the Competitive Level and a Playing Position

Journal of Human Kinetics ◽

10.1515/hukin-2015-0041 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 46 (1) ◽

pp. 129-137 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Silvia Sedano ◽

Roel Vaeyens ◽

Juan Carlos Redondo

Keyword(s):

Age Distribution ◽

Age Effect ◽

Soccer Players ◽

Birth Date ◽

Football Players ◽

Chi Square ◽

Level Of Involvement ◽

Relative Age ◽

Relative Age Effect ◽

Almost All

Abstract The purposes of the study were to examine relative age effects (RAEs) in Spanish female soccer and to identify the influence of a playing position. The sample comprised all female players (n=4035) of five different competitive levels in the 2010-2013 seasons: First, Second and Third divisions (n=936, n=1711 and n=870, respectively), and National and Regional (n=232 and n=286, respectively) teams were included. Differences between the observed and expected birth-date distributions were tested based on data from the general Spanish population, using the chi-square statistic followed up by calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results revealed that the birth-date distributions of almost all groups of football players showed an overrepresentation of players born in the first quartile. Only in the lowest level was age distribution not significantly different from that of the general population. Moreover, the RAE risk progressively increased with a higher level of involvement. It was also observed that at some playing positions the birth-date distributions were significantly biased. That was the case for goalkeepers and defenders. It could be concluded that in the current structure of Spanish female soccer there is a relative age effect, probably due to the early processes of talent identification.

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Are European Soccer Players Worth More If They Are Born Early in the Year? Relative Age Effect on Player Market Value

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17093301 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (9) ◽

pp. 3301

Author(s):

Benito Perez-Gonzalez ◽

Alvaro Fernandez-Luna ◽

Daniel Castillo ◽

Pablo Burillo

Keyword(s):

Market Value ◽

Age Effect ◽

Soccer Players ◽

Age Group ◽

Youth Soccer ◽

Relative Age ◽

Relative Age Effect

The relative age effect (RAE) consists of the lower presence of members of an age group born in the months furthest from the age cut-off date established. In youth soccer, it is known that because of this effect the birth dates of more players in a team are closer to the cutoff of 1 January. These older players, due to their physical and psychological advantages, are more likely to be identified as talent. This study aimed to examine whether RAE can be identified in professional players of the top five European soccer leagues (Spain, Italy, England, Germany, and France) and to assess its influence on the perceived market value of the players. Market value data for 2577 players were obtained from the Transfermarkt database. A significant RAE was produced in all leagues (p < 0.05). However, this bias did not affect the market value of the professional elite soccer players examined here. Our observations indicate that, while the identification and promotion of talent at young ages are often biased by RAE, once players have reached the professional stage, the market value assigned to them is based more on factors other than their date of birth.

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The Relative Age Effect On The Selection In The Slovakia National Football Teams

Acta Facultatis Educationis Physicae Universitatis Comenianae ◽

10.1515/afepuc-2015-0013 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 55 (2) ◽

pp. 122-131 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Martin Mikulič ◽

Pavol Gregora ◽

Ľuboš Benkovský ◽

Pavol Peráček

Keyword(s):

Statistical Significance ◽

Significance Test ◽

Age Effect ◽

Football Players ◽

National Team ◽

Relative Age ◽

Relative Age Effect ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Age Category ◽

Selection Of

SummaryThe focus of this research was to determine the relative age effect (RAE) on selection in the Slovakia national football teams. A factor that may have a significant impact on the quality of players chosen for the national teams or may result in a poor selection of players for the elite teams. Anthropometric and cognitive acceleration of players born in the first months of the calendar year concerning the overall context of the competition for placement in the national teams may be considered as a significant advantage. The aim of this research was to examine, determine and verify the presence of relative age effect in the selection of football players for the Slovakia national teams starting with the under 16 age category (U-16) through to the A - senior national football team. We presumed that the elite teams under this review and study consisted predominantly of players born in the first quarter of the calendar year, while also presuming that relative age effect receded with the increasing age category. Our survey sample U16 consisted of 79 players, U17 consisted of 47 players, U18 consisted of 58 players, U19 consisted of 71 players, U21 consisted of 52 players and A - senior national team consisted of 302 Slovakia national football players. The information obtained from the Slovak Football Association has been processed by the application of statistical methods and statistical significance test (T-test). Our research confirmed the presence of relative age effect in the U-16, U-17 and U-18 teams under our investigation (p≤0.01). In the U19 and U21 age categories, statistical significance has not been confirmed. As for the senior national team, statistically significant difference has been found in relation to players born in the last quarter of the year as opposed to players born in the first three months of the year (p≤0.01). Our results have shown that with the increasing age, the relative age effect fades and vanishes in full in the category of senior elite players. In the U-19 and U-21 age categories, statistical significance has not been confirmed. Based on this research results it may be recommended to use the advantage of relative age effect for the selection of players of the particular age category in the particular competition (such as e.g. the European Championship qualification, the European Championship final tournament qualification, or the World Cup qualification in the U-16, U-17, U-18 age categories).

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