Performance of judgmental–statistical forecast combination strategies under product-market configurations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Budhi S. Wibowo ◽  
Yoga J. Prakoso ◽  
Nur Aini Masruroh
Keyword(s):  
Product Market ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Combination Strategies

scholarly journals Consensus of Numerical Model Forecasts of Significant Wave Heights

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 792-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Woodcock ◽  
Diana J. M. Greenslade
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Correlated Errors ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Combination Strategies ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract The operational consensus forecast (OCF) scheme uses past performance to bias correct and combine numerical forecasts to produce an improved forecast at locations where recent observations are available. Here, OCF uses past observations and forecasts of significant wave height from five numerical wave models available in real time at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. In addition to OCF, different adaptive weighting and forecast combination strategies are investigated. At deep-water sites (ocean depth > 25 m), all of the interpolated raw model forecasts outperformed 24-h persistence and, after bias correction, one model was clearly best. Significant improvements over raw model significant wave height forecasts were achieved by bias correction, linear-regression methods, and combination strategies. The best forecasts were obtained from a “composite of composites” in which models with highly correlated errors were combined before being included in the performance-weighted bias-corrected forecast. This technique slightly outperformed the linear-regression-corrected best model. At shallow-water sites (ocean depth < 25 m), all raw models perform poorly relative to the 24-h persistence. The composited, corrected forecasts significantly improved on raw model significant wave height forecasts but only slightly outperformed the 24-h persistence. The raw models generated unrealistically large biases that tended to be amplified with larger observed values of significant wave height.

ANALISIS KINERJA STRATEGI PEMASARAN USAHA KERAJINAN KETAK DI KABUPATEN LOMBOK TENGAH

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
H.L Ahmad Murdani
Keyword(s):  
Product Market ◽  
Horizontal Merger ◽  
Case Method ◽  
Alternative Strategies ◽  
Market Expansion ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Method Approach

Ketak handicraft is one of any other superior handicraft in Lombok Tengah Regency, as one of any other revenue generator for Lombok Tengah regency and to increase the prosperity of people in this industry, it is needed to find out the ways and strategies to improve the performance of this business. This research was categorized as a descriptive research which used case method approach, it was aimed to find out the position of ketak handicraft among handicraft industry in Lombok Tengah based on recent performance and to identify alternative strategies which can be chosen in order to improve the performance of this industry. In order to find out the position of ketak handicraft business, it was used BCG Agam analysis and based on this position the strategy for improving this business was selected based on this analysis, the position of third business was in the stars position, where alternative strategies that can be chosen were: (a) development of the existing product (market expansion for the existing product); (b) diversification; (c) horizontal merger. Suggestion recommended was to apply one of these strategies based on analysis that had been conducted.

COMPETITIVE STATUS OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Zayats ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ict Adoption ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Global Competitiveness Index ◽  
One Year

The article examines the competitive status and competitive positions of Ukraine. It proves that in the current context the competitive status of the national economy is determined by the presence of a strong global competitive force that provides dynamic growth based on innovation potential, developed institutions, infrastructure, ICT adoption, macroeconomic stability, health, skills, product market, labor market, financial system, market size, business dynamism rather than by traditional factors (natural resources, geopolitical situation). It has been identified that a wide range of factors in global competitive force establishment suggests the complexity of its assessment. It has been noted that in world economic practice the Global Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum is predominantly used to assess the competitive status of the national economy. It has been determined that according to this index, in the overall ranking among 141 countries in 2019, Ukraine ranked 85th (2009-2010 – 82/133; 2018 – 83/140). The article analyzes of the competitive status of Ukraine in the international arena in terms of twelve pillars of the studied index and in the context of components of the said pillars. The dynamics of Ukraine's global competitive force in recent years shows that there has not been any build up. However, if one analyzes it in terms of the criteria of the global competitive force of the domestic economy, their assessment is volatile: the main regression can be traced in the sphere of the financial system, where Ukraine dropped by 19 positions in one year (2018 – 117/140, 2019 – 136/141), and the greatest progress is observed in the product market, where Ukraine rose by 16 positions in one year (2018 – 73/140, 2019 – 57/141). Analysis of the components of Ukraine’s global competitive force criteria shows that the worst positions in terms of such components are as follows: non-performing loans (% of gross total loans) – 139/141 and soundness of banks – 131/141. The best positions are in terms of the following components: costs of starting a business – 14/141 and attitude towards entrepreneurial risk – 18/141.

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