The optimal project selection in portfolio management using fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methodology

Purpose Project selection is a critical decision for any organization seeking to commission a large-scale construction project. Project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem with significant uncertainty and high risks. Fuzzy set theory has been used to address various aspects of project uncertainty, but with key practical limitations. This study aims to develop and apply a novel Pythagorean fuzzy sets (PFSs) approach that overcomes these key limitations. Design/methodology/approach The study is particular to complex project selection in the context of increasing interest in resilience as a key project selection criterion. Project resilience is proposed and considered in the specific situation of a large-scale construction project selection case study. The case study develops and applies a PFS approach to manage project uncertainty. The case study is presented to demonstrate how PFS is applied to a practical problem of realistic complexity. Working through the case study highlights some of the key benefits of the PFS approach for practicing project managers and decision-makers in general. Findings The PFSs approach proposed in this study is shown to be scalable, efficient, generalizable and practical. The results confirm that the inclusion of last aggregation and last defuzzification avoids the potentially critical information loss and relative lack of transparency. Most especially, the developed PFS is able to accommodate and manage domain expert expressions of uncertainty that are realistic and practical. Originality/value The main novelty of this study is to address project resilience in the form of multi-criteria evaluation and decision-making under PFS uncertainty. The approach is defined mathematically and presented as a six-step approach to decision-making. The PFS approach is given to allow multiple domain experts to focus more clearly on accurate expressions of their agreement and disagreement. PFS is shown to be an important new direction in practical multi-criteria decision-making methods for the project management practitioner.

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Projection-based probabilistic linguistic multi-criteria decision-making method for new energy project selection

Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems ◽

10.3233/jifs-210573 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Min-Hui Deng ◽

Xiao-Yu Zhou ◽

Jian-Qiang Wang ◽

Jun-Bo Li ◽

Peng-Fei Cheng

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Numerical Study ◽

Project Selection ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Maximum Deviation ◽

Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽

Uncertain Information ◽

Projection Model ◽

Energy Projects ◽

New Energy

The development of new energy industry is a pressing issue due to the deterioration of the environment. The selection of new energy projects is a critical problem for decision makers. Incomplete and uncertain information appears in the process of new energy project selection. Compared with other linguistic expressions, probabilistic linguistic term set (PLTS) simultaneously reflects all possible linguistic terms and their corresponding weights, which conforms to the cognitive habits of people. Thus, a multi-criteria decision-making framework under PLTS environment is constructed for energy project selection. Firstly, a normalised projection model of PLTS, which considers the distance and the angle between two objects, is proposed to overcome the limitations of distance measurement. Secondly, a comprehensive weight-determination method combining the maximum deviation and expert scoring methods is developed to calculate the weight vector of the criteria. Furthermore, a projection-based VIKOR (Višekriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno rešenje) method is established to select new energy projects, which can reflect the preferences of decision makers for group utility and individual regret. Finally, a numerical study on new energy project selection is performed to determine the validity and applicability of this method. Sensitive and comparative analyses are also conducted to reflect the rationality and feasibility of the method.

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