Since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been renewed interest in determining how the operation of building HVAC systems influences the risk of airborne transmission of disease. It has been established that combinations of increased ventilation, improved filtration, and other disinfection techniques can reduce the likelihood of transmission by removing or deactivating the airborne particles that potentially contain infectious material. However, when such guidance is general and qualitative in nature, it is extremely difficult for building managers to make informed decisions, as there is no quantitative information about how much risk reduction is provided. Furthermore, the actions that could be taken almost always require additional energy consumption by the HVAC system, and so in the absence of building-specific analysis, it is possible that chosen strategies might simply be wasting energy without providing meaningful reduction in transmission risk. To address this knowledge gap, we propose simplified steady-state models that can be used to quantify both the expected infection rate and the associated HVAC energy consumption that result from baseline operation and hypothetical changes. The transmission rate is modeled by considering the airborne concentration of infectious particles that would result from the activity-dependent respiration of an infector in the space, the physical dimensions of the space, and operation of the HVAC system. By formulating all disinfection mechanisms in terms of "equivalent outdoor air", a common basis is established for comparing and combining different strategies. Energy consumption can then be estimated by considering the change in HVAC variables (e.g., flow rates and temperatures) and applying standard models. To illustrate the insights provided by these models, we present examples of how the proposed analysis can be applied to specific spaces, highlighting the fact that underlying transmission risk (and thus also the energy-optimal disinfection strategies) can vary significantly from building to building and even from space to space within the same building. The overall goal is to empower building managers to fully assess the tradeoff between energy consumption and infection risk so that they can more effectively target their disinfection efforts and take actions that are consistent with current health and sustainability priorities.
Quantifying the Tradeoff Between Energy Consumption and the Risk of Airborne Disease Transmission for Building HVAC Systems
