scholarly journals Improvement of methods of hydrological forecasting using geoinformation technologies

2021 ◽  
Vol 2131 (3) ◽  
pp. 032069
Author(s):  
A Zueva ◽  
V Shamova ◽  
T Pilipenko
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Electronic Map ◽  
Hydrological Forecasting ◽  
Ob River ◽  
Network Methods ◽  
One Step ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract This article discusses the possibility of improving hydrological forecasting methods based on a neural network. The hydrological series, its importance and forecasting features are considered. For hydrological forecasting using the MapInfoProfessional geoinformation system, an electronic map has been developed containing information about the rivers of Russia, as well as gauging stations on the Ob River. The electronic map is the basis for creating a module for short-term hydrological forecasting based on an artificial neural network. The features of a neural network, methods of its training and implementation are considered. The developed artificial neural network is a layer of neurons with a linear activation function and a delay line at the input. To predict the levels of hydrological series, real water levels at gauging stations of the Ob River in the Novosibirsk region will be used. The developed module and its capabilities have been tested. The study was carried out on the basis of models of hydrological series, as well as on the basis of levels of real hydrological series. Based on the study, dependence of the root-mean-square error on the number of previous values of series was revealed. The study also shows that it is possible to use a neural network for the current one-step forecasting of levels of hydrological series in conditions of insufficient information about the runoff region and its characteristics.

Forecasting travel demand: a comparison of logit and artificial neural network methods

1998 ◽  
Vol 49 (7) ◽  
pp. 717-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
M C M de Carvalho ◽  
M S Dougherty ◽  
A S Fowkes ◽  
M R Wardman
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Network Methods ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Prediction of Stress in Power Transformer Winding Conductors Using Artificial Neural Networks: Hyperparameter Analysis

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4242
Author(s):  
Fausto Valencia ◽  
Hugo Arcos ◽  
Franklin Quilumba
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Power Transformer ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Transformer Winding ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Femm Software

The purpose of this research is the evaluation of artificial neural network models in the prediction of stresses in a 400 MVA power transformer winding conductor caused by the circulation of fault currents. The models were compared considering the training, validation, and test data errors’ behavior. Different combinations of hyperparameters were analyzed based on the variation of architectures, optimizers, and activation functions. The data for the process was created from finite element simulations performed in the FEMM software. The design of the Artificial Neural Network was performed using the Keras framework. As a result, a model with one hidden layer was the best suited architecture for the problem at hand, with the optimizer Adam and the activation function ReLU. The final Artificial Neural Network model predictions were compared with the Finite Element Method results, showing good agreement but with a much shorter solution time.

Prognosis of water levels in a moor groundwater system influenced by hydrology and water extraction using an artificial neural network 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sascha Flaig ◽  
Timothy Praditia ◽  
Alexander Kissinger ◽  
Ulrich Lang ◽  
Sergey Oladyshkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Typical Structure ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Physical Knowledge ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Impact

<p>In order to prevent possible negative impacts of water abstraction in an ecologically sensitive moor south of Munich (Germany), a “predictive control” scheme is in place. We design an artificial neural network (ANN) to provide predictions of moor water levels and to separate hydrological from anthropogenic effects. As the moor is a dynamic system, we adopt the „Long short-term memory“ architecture.</p><p>To find the best LSTM setup, we train, test and compare LSTMs with two different structures: (1) the non-recurrent one-to-one structure, where the series of inputs are accumulated and fed into the LSTM; and (2) the recurrent many-to-many structure, where inputs gradually enter the LSTM (including LSTM forecasts from previous forecast time steps). The outputs of our LSTMs then feed into a readout layer that converts the hidden states into water level predictions. We hypothesize that the recurrent structure is the better structure because it better resembles the typical structure of differential equations for dynamic systems, as they would usually be used for hydro(geo)logical systems. We evaluate the comparison with the mean squared error as test metric, and conclude that the recurrent many-to-many LSTM performs better for the analyzed complex situations. It also produces plausible predictions with reasonable accuracy for seven days prediction horizon.</p><p>Furthermore, we analyze the impact of preprocessing meteorological data to evapotranspiration data using typical ETA models. Inserting knowledge into the LSTM in the form of ETA models (rather than implicitly having the LSTM learn the ETA relations) leads to superior prediction results. This finding aligns well with current ideas on physically-inspired machine learning.</p><p>As an additional validation step, we investigate whether our ANN is able to correctly identify both anthropogenic and natural influences and their interaction. To this end, we investigate two comparable pumping events under different meteorological conditions. Results indicate that all individual and combined influences of input parameters on water levels can be represented well. The neural networks recognize correctly that the predominant precipitation and lower evapotranspiration during one pumping event leads to a lower decrease of the hydrograph.</p><p>To further demonstrate the capability of the trained neural network, scenarios of pumping events are created and simulated.</p><p>In conclusion, we show that more robust and accurate predictions of moor water levels can be obtained if available physical knowledge of the modeled system is used to design and train the neural network. The artificial neural network can be a useful instrument to assess the impact of water abstraction by quantifying the anthropogenic influence.</p>

Power Forecasting from Solar Panels Using Artificial Neural Network in UTHM Parit Raja

2021 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha Munirah Mohd Fahmi ◽  
◽  
Nor Aira Zambri ◽  
Norhafiz Salim ◽  
Sim Sy Yi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Solar Panels ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Power Characteristics ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This paper presents a step-by-step procedure for the simulation of photovoltaic modules with numerical values, using MALTAB/Simulink software. The proposed model is developed based on the mathematical model of PV module, which based on PV solar cell employing one-diode equivalent circuit. The output current and power characteristics curves highly depend on some climatic factors such as radiation and temperature, are obtained by simulation of the selected module. The collected data are used in developing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are the techniques used to forecast the outputs of the PV. Various types of activation function will be applied such as Linear, Logistic Sigmoid, Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid and Gaussian. The simulation results show that the Logistic Sigmoid is the best technique which produce minimal root mean square error for the system.

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