scholarly journals Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 035001 ◽  
Author(s):  
C T Simmons ◽  
H D Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Human Land Use

scholarly journals Relationship between physical and biogeochemical parameters and the scenario dependence of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaoru Tachiiri
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Extreme Case ◽  
Initial Increase ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Large Correlation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Biogeochemical Parameters

AbstractThe transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a key metric in estimating the remaining carbon budget for given temperature targets. However, the TCRE has a small scenario dependence that can be non-negligible for stringent temperature targets. To investigate the parametric correlations and scenario dependence of the TCRE, the present study uses a 512-member ensemble of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) perturbing 11 physical and biogeochemical parameters under scenarios with steady increases of 0.25%, 0.5%, 1%, 2%, or 4% per annum (ppa) in the atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2), or an initial increase of 1% followed by an annual decrease of 1% thereafter. Although a small difference of 5% (on average) in the TCRE is observed between the 1-ppa and 0.5-ppa scenarios, a significant scenario dependence is found for the other scenarios, with a tendency toward large values in gradual or decline-after-a-peak scenarios and small values in rapidly increasing scenarios. For all scenarios, correlation analysis indicates a remarkably large correlation between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the relative change in the TCRE, which is attributed to the longer response time of the high ECS model. However, the correlations of the ECS with the TCRE and its scenario dependence for scenarios with large pCO2 increase rates are slightly smaller, and those of biogeochemical parameters such as plant respiration and the overall pCO2–carbon cycle feedback are larger, than in scenarios with gradual increases. The ratio of the TCREs under the overshooting (i.e., 1-ppa decrease after a 1-ppa increase) and 1-ppa increase only scenarios had a clear positive relation with zero-emission commitments. Considering the scenario dependence of the TCRE, the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 °C target could be reduced by 17 or 22% (before and after considering the unrepresented Earth system feedback) for the most extreme case (i.e., the 67th percentile when using the 0.25-ppa scenario as compared to the 1-ppa increase scenario). A single ensemble EMIC is also used to indicate that, at least for high ECS (high percentile) cases, the scenario dependence of the TCRE should be considered when estimating the remaining carbon budget.

Carbon emissions from land-use change: an analysis of causal factors in Chiapas, Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1213-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Castillo-Santiago ◽  
A. Hellier ◽  
R. Tipper ◽  
B. H. J. de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Causal Factors

Large ensemble assessment of how the global surface warming response to cumulative carbon differs for negative and positive carbon emissions  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Negar Vakilifard ◽  
Katherine Turner ◽  
Ric Williams ◽  
Philip Holden ◽  
Neil Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Negative Emission

<p>The controls of the effective transient climate response (TCRE), defined in terms of the dependence of surface warming since the pre-industrial to the cumulative carbon emission, is explained in terms of climate model experiments for a scenario including positive emissions and then negative emission over a period of 400 years. We employ a pre-calibrated ensemble of GENIE, grid-enabled integrated Earth system model, consisting of 86 members to determine the process of controlling TCRE in both CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and drawdown phases. Our results are based on the GENIE simulations with historical forcing from AD 850 including land use change, and the future forcing defined by CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and a non-CO<sub>2</sub> radiative forcing timeseries. We present the results for the point-source carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario as a negative emission scenario, following the medium representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), assuming that the rate of emission drawdown is 2 PgC/yr CO<sub>2</sub> for the duration of 100 years. The climate response differs between the periods of positive and negative carbon emissions with a greater ensemble spread during the negative carbon emissions. The controls of the spread in ensemble responses are explained in terms of a combination of thermal processes (involving ocean heat uptake and physical climate feedback), radiative processes (saturation in radiative forcing from CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> contributions) and carbon dependences (involving terrestrial and ocean carbon uptake).  </p>

Sedimentary Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics Reveal Impact of Human Land-Use Change on Kawainui Marsh, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Brittany Anderson ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Huining Wang ◽  
Tianyi Lu ◽  
F. David Horgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Nitrogen Dynamics ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen Dynamics ◽  
Sedimentary Carbon

The Net Carbon Emissions from Historic Land Use and Land Use Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 263-283
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Brent Sohngen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Historic Land Use

scholarly journals A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

2011 ◽  
Vol 37 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2035-2043 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. van der Molen ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
W. Hazeleger
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Change Climate ◽  
The Tropics

scholarly journals Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity

2013 ◽  
Vol 280 (1750) ◽  
pp. 20122131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
Çağan H. Şekercioğlu ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Land Use Intensity ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Average Probability ◽  
Land Use Intensity Gradient

Land-use change is one of the main drivers of current and likely future biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding how species are affected by it is crucial to guide conservation decisions. Species respond differently to land-use change, possibly related to their traits. Using pan-tropical data on bird occurrence and abundance across a human land-use intensity gradient, we tested the effects of seven traits on observed responses. A likelihood-based approach allowed us to quantify uncertainty in modelled responses, essential for applying the model to project future change. Compared with undisturbed habitats, the average probability of occurrence of bird species was 7.8 per cent and 31.4 per cent lower, and abundance declined by 3.7 per cent and 19.2 per cent in habitats with low and high human land-use intensity, respectively. Five of the seven traits tested affected the observed responses significantly: long-lived, large, non-migratory, primarily frugivorous or insectivorous forest specialists were both less likely to occur and less abundant in more intensively used habitats than short-lived, small, migratory, non-frugivorous/insectivorous habitat generalists. The finding that species responses to land use depend on their traits is important for understanding ecosystem functioning, because species' traits determine their contribution to ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the loss of species with particular traits might have implications for the delivery of ecosystem services.

scholarly journals Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yue ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Wei Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Shifting Cultivation ◽  
Secondary Forests ◽  
Forest Age ◽  
Priority Rules ◽  
Forest Clearing ◽  
Historical Land Use ◽  
Wood Harvest

Abstract. Several modeling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (LUC) by including bi-directional transitions at the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change). This has implication on the estimation of so-called residual land CO2 sink over undisturbed lands. However, in most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM), forests and/or other land use types are represented with a single sub-grid tile, without accounting for secondary lands that are often involved in shifting cultivation or wood harvest. As a result, land use change emissions (ELUC) are likely overestimated, because it is high-biomass mature forests instead of low-biomass secondary forests that are cleared. Here we investigated the effects of including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM on historical ELUC over 1501–2005. We run two simulations, one with no forest age (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of different age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501–2005 are 179 Pg C in Sage compared to 199 Pg C in Sageless. The lower emissions in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics, being of 27 Pg C in Sage against 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C), because secondary forests simulated in Sage are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to the harvest of old forests. This result depends on pre-defined forest clearing priority rules given a simulated portfolio of differently aged forests in the model. Our results highlight that although gross land use change as a former missing emission component is included by a growing number of DGVMs, its contribution to overall ELUC tends to be overestimated, unless low-biomass secondary forests are properly represented.

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