scholarly journals Rainstorm Disaster Prediction Based on Weather Research and Forecast (WRF): A Case of Nanjing, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 943 (1) ◽  
pp. 012007
Author(s):  
Yuanying Niu
Keyword(s):  
Southern China ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Financial Losses ◽  
Great Damage ◽  
Disaster Prediction ◽  
Weather Research

Abstract Rainstorm disaster causes great damage to human lives, environment and economies. Many environmental catastrophes happened every summer in southern China as result of the rainstorm. Therefore, heavy rain prediction remains the main focus of many scholars’ attention. However, the weather forecast is inaccurate and not prompt enough, causing casualties and financial losses. Weather Research Forecast (WRF) is an effective method and is utilized in this study to predict the precipitable water vapor (PWV) in meso-and small-scale in Nanjing. Rain is formed because of the PWV in the atmosphere, and therefore precipitation could be predicted according to the PWV. A method is proposed that the amount of rainstorm precipitation could be predicted based on the PWV, which can be simulated by WRF. The experimental results are consistent with the actual rainstorm situation. It demonstrates that promising measures based on the reliable WRF model could be taken to reduce the impending disasters.

scholarly journals Investigasi Pengaruh Skenario Modifikasi Urbanisasi pada Perubahan Hujan di Kota Makassar

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fitria Puspita Sari ◽  
Satriawan Nadhrotal Atsidiqi
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Weather Research

<p class="AbstractEnglish"><strong>Abstract:</strong> Urbanization affects the atmosphere through the urban heat island (UHI) process, resulting in the change of rain patterns over urban areas. Makassar as the one of big cities in Indonesia is assumed to be suffering from this effect, thus an investigation related to the issue needs to be done.  This study contains a simulation of urbanization scenarios using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model during the transition monsoon period: September-October-November (SON) 2014-2018. The study covers 5 selected heavy-rain-event during the SON period: 24 September 2016, 9 October 2016, 24 October 2016, 22 November 2016, and 23 September 2017. Result shows that the model is able to simulate some weather parameters with relatively small root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and high correlation on three rain event cases. Afterwards, scenarios of 25% and 50% increasing urban area towards Makassar coastal line (as reclamation plan) and existing urban areas have been done.  The results show that urbanization increases daily average temperature over urban areas, so does UHI maximum reach number of 1.5°C for both scenarios on 24 September 2016 rain event. Also, it increases rain accumulation up to 50% over reclamation areas and relativeky decreases rainfall over existing urban areas. </p><p class="AbstrakIndonesia"><strong>Abstrak:</strong> Peningkatan jumlah penduduk dan kegiatan urbanisasi dapat mengubah interaksi atmosfer melalui penambahan pelepasan panas yang menyebabkan terjadinya efek <em>urban heat islands </em>(UHI) serta perubahan hujan di wilayah perkotaan. Sebagai salah satu kota metropolitan di Indonesia, Makassar dimungkinkan terdampak oleh efek UHI tersebut. Sehingga penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui dampak urbanisasi terhadap perubahan akumulasi dan/atau pola hujan di wilayah Makassar sesuai skenario jumlah penduduk tahun 2045. Investigasi dilakukan dengan memanfaatkan model non-hidrostatik tiga dimensi <em>Weather Research and Forecasting (</em>WRF) pada musim transisi September-Oktober-November (SON) 2014-2018. Kejadian hujan lebat terpilih sebanyak 5 hari yakni tanggal 24 September 2016, 9 Oktober 2016, 24 Oktober 2016, 22 November 2016, dan 23 September 2017. Verifikasi model dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode statistik. Hasilnya, model mampu digunakan untuk mensimulasikan tiga dari lima kejadian hujan lebat dengan nilai RMSE relatif rendah dan korelasi tinggi. Selanjutnya, skenario modifikasi dilakukan dengan menambahkan wilayah urban sebesar 25% dan 50% untuk masing-masing area di bagian pantai (sesuai rencana reklamasi) dan taman kota. Dari hasil simulasi hujan lebat tanggal 24 September 2016 diketahui bahwa urbanisasi meningkatkan rataan suhu harian wilayah perkotaan yang menyebabakan UHI maksimum meningkat antara 0.1° hingga 1.5°C pada dua skenario modifikasi. Selain itu skenario modifikasi urbanisasi menyebabkan peningkatan hujan sebesar 50% di area reklamasi dan cenderung normal bahkan mengalami penurunan di wilayah taman kota sekitar Universitas Hasanuddin.</p>

scholarly journals Representation of Ethiopian Wet Spells in Global and Nested Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Jury ◽  
Sen Chiao
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Nile Valley ◽  
Nested Models ◽  
Meridional Winds

Weather forecast and reanalysis models exhibit different performance in daily rainfall estimation over the Ethiopian highlands, 2000–2012, with ECMWF closer to observations than other models. Background is given to illustrate the Hadley circulation and easterly jets over Ethiopia, using sections on 37°E in July–August 2011. ECMWF reanalysis has a narrow band of rainfall >15 mm/day on 10°N, consistent with TRMM satellite estimates, associated with a steep gradient in meridional wind. MERRA and GFS models have a wider band of rainfall and weaker gradients in meridional winds. The contrasting background states influence a nested WRF model simulation of heavy rain in the upper Nile Valley on 29 July, 2011. The GFS (ECMWF) initialization yields stronger northerly (southerly) winds north (south) of Ethiopia, while aircraft observations are southerly at 850 mb and northerly at 700 mb. ECMWF produces heavy and widespread rainfall consistent with observations, with a potentially more realistic simulation of the Hadley circulation.

scholarly journals Solar Brightening/Dimming over China’s Mainland: Effects of Atmospheric Aerosols, Anthropogenic Emissions, and Meteorological Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Hejin Fang ◽  
Wenmin Qin ◽  
Lunche Wang ◽  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Xuefang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Main Role ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Change Research

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is the main factor affecting the earth’s climate and environment and its variations and the reason for these variations are an important part of climate change research. In this research, we investigated the long-term variations of SSR during 1984–2016 and the quantitative influences of atmospheric aerosols, anthropogenic emissions, and meteorological conditions on SSR over China’s mainland. The results show the following: (1) The annual average SSR values had a decline trend at a rate of −0.371 Wm−2 yr−1 from 1984 to 2016 over China. (2) The aerosol optical depth (AOD) plays the main role in inducing variations in SSR over China, with r values of −0.75. Moreover, there are marked regional differences in the influence of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological conditions on SSR trends. (3) From a regional perspective, AOD is the main influencing factor on SSR in northeast China (NEC), Yunnan Plateau and surrounding regions (YPS), North China (NC), and Loess Plateau (LP), with r values of −0.65, −0.60, −0.89, and −0.50, respectively. However, the main driving factors for SSR in northwest China (NWC) are “in cloud optical thickness of all clouds” (TAUTOT) (−0.26) and black carbon (BC) anthropogenic emissions (−0.21). TAUTOT (−0.39) and total precipitable water vapor (TQV) (−0.29) are the main influencing factors of SSR in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain (MYP). The main factors that influence SSR in southern China (SC) are surface pressure (PS) (−0.66) and AOD (−0.43). This research provides insights in understanding the variations of SSR and its relationships with anthropogenic conditions and meteorological factors.

Predicting lightning activity in Greece with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

2015 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore M. Giannaros ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Konstantinos Lagouvardos
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Weather Research
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