Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala

Author(s):  
J. Edward Taylor ◽  
Mateusz J. Filipski
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.


2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 685-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Solaymani ◽  
Nora Yusma Bt Mohamed Yusoff

This study uses a computable general equilibrium approach to investigate the impact of high global food and agricultural commodity prices and two mitigation options (a rise in agricultural input subsidies and an improvement in agricultural productivity) on poverty and economic performance of Malaysia. Simulated results showed that, as a whole, the high global food price has a negative impact on the economic growth of Malaysia. It decreases real gross domestic product of Malaysia by 0.53%. Although the food price hike initially increases poverty in urban areas, it would significantly decrease the poverty of rural and noncitizen households. However, both mitigation options can reduce the negative impact of the shock on the poverty and economic growth of Malaysia. The agricultural subsidy rise option cannot reduce the poverty level of all household groups, whereas the productivity improvement option can alleviate the poverty level of all household groups. In conclusion, results suggest that the agricultural productivity improvement option is more effective than the agricultural subsidy rise option to mitigate the negative impact of global food price shocks on the economy and poverty of Malaysia.


2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. i12-i62 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Abbott ◽  
A. Borot de Battisti
Keyword(s):  

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Thompson Chaudhry ◽  
Azam Amjad Chaudhry

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second, the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally, food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to an 8% increase in the poverty head count.


2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (9) ◽  
pp. 1302-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena I. Ianchovichina ◽  
Josef L. Loening ◽  
Christina A. Wood

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-74
Author(s):  
Eduardo Botti Abbade

This study aimed to investigate the impact of logistics performance, domestic food price, and food loss on diet diversification and depth of food deficit, as well as the impact of diet diversification and depth of food deficit on the prevalence of undernourishment worldwide. This investigation adopts a quantitative approach based on available data obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Food Security Index, and the World Bank Group. This study uses correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis as the analytical procedures. In a global perspective, evidence suggests that weak logistics performance tends to increase food loss, and domestic food price has a significant impact on diet diversification, as well as the domestic food price implies a significant increase in depth of food deficit in the world’s populations. Food price is the factor that most impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, severely affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide. Reducing food prices has the potential to promote greater diet diversification for populations worldwide, contributing to promote global food security. This study highlights the necessity to develop an improved and efficient global food system, capable of reducing food prices, promote a cleaner food production and deliver improved nutrition and health for world populations. This investigation sustains that food price severely impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide.


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