Sustainable Intensification Practices Reduce Food Deficit for the Best- and Worst-Off Households in Ethiopia and Mozambique

An adequate food supply is widely recognized as a necessary condition for social development as well as a basic human right. Food deficits are especially common among semi-subsistence farming households in eastern and southern Africa and farm productivity is widely regarded as the locus for enhancing household food outcomes. However, knowledge gaps surrounding benefits associated with climate smart, productivity-enhancing technologies require attention. This study evaluates benefits associated with sustainable intensification farm management practices (crop residue retention, minimum tillage, manure application and use of herbicides, pesticides, fertilizer, and improved seeds) for household calorie and protein supplies and demonstrates their scope across households with high-, moderate- and low- likelihoods of calorie and protein deficits. Household-level calorie and protein deficits were estimated from survey data on food production, acquisition and consumption for households in Ethiopia and Mozambique. Multinomial logistic models were used to identify drivers of household food deficit status and logistic model trees established “rules of thumb” to classify households by food deficit status as low, moderate or high likelihood. In Ethiopia, especially wet seasons were associated with a high likelihood of a food deficit while especially dry seasons were associated with a high likelihood of food deficit in Mozambique. The practices associated with sustainable intensification and related technologies substantially enhanced food outcomes in groups with a high- and a low-likelihood of food deficit, and associated benefits were high for the best-off households. Benefits associated with sustainable intensification technologies were not observed for households with a moderate likelihood of a food deficit and some technologies even increased risk. The sustainable intensification practices assessed here were associated with improved food outcomes yet benefits were limited in scope for households of intermediate status. Thus, there is a need to expand the technical options available to reduce food deficit.

Divergent abiotic spectral pathways unravel pathogen stress signals across species

Plant pathogens pose increasing threats to global food security, causing yield losses that exceed 30% in food-deficit regions. Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) represents the major transboundary plant pest and one of the world’s most damaging pathogens in terms of socioeconomic impact. Spectral screening methods are critical to detect non-visual symptoms of early infection and prevent spread. However, the subtle pathogen-induced physiological alterations that are spectrally detectable are entangled with the dynamics of abiotic stresses. Here, using airborne spectroscopy and thermal scanning of areas covering more than one million trees of different species, infections and water stress levels, we reveal the existence of divergent pathogen- and host-specific spectral pathways that can disentangle biotic-induced symptoms. We demonstrate that uncoupling this biotic–abiotic spectral dynamics diminishes the uncertainty in the Xf detection to below 6% across different hosts. Assessing these deviating pathways against another harmful vascular pathogen that produces analogous symptoms, Verticillium dahliae, the divergent routes remained pathogen- and host-specific, revealing detection accuracies exceeding 92% across pathosystems. These urgently needed hyperspectral methods advance early detection of devastating pathogens to reduce the billions in crop losses worldwide.

How trade can drive inclusive and sustainable food system outcomes in food deficit low-income countries

Recent decades have seen food markets and value chains become increasingly global—a trend that creates challenges as well as opportunities for food systems. Positive trade effects on food security are not always self-evident in food deficit low-income countries. Moreover, whereas international trade may also be used to balance regional differences in climate change impacts and biodiversity, trade can exacerbate environmental challenges associated with food production, land use and climate change. This article argues that, for trade to drive inclusive and sustainable growth of nutritious food production in food deficit low-income countries, policies and investments in these countries must focus on three key priorities: 1) diversifying production and markets to increase resilience to external shocks; 2) enhancing competitiveness and improving market access for local farmers and SMEs, and 3) incorporating externalities in international trade. The latter requires collective international action.

Food Import Dependency and National Food Security: A Price Transmission Analysis for the Wheat Sector

Agricultural trade liberalization and protecting domestic markets encompass conflicting policy goals. Even though after the food crisis in 2008, national governments of food-deficit nations aimed at reducing food supply dependency on external markets, no research has assessed the impacts of food import reliance on price or price volatility transmissions to local markets. We constructed a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to examine whether wheat import dependency could make a country vulnerable to overseas shocks by analyzing the inter-relationships between the international wheat price and retail wheat flour prices in 10 net importing countries over the sample period from January 2005 to December 2019. It was found that retail price volatility in each region was positively correlated with international price volatility for most of the period concerned. We also discovered that external dependency could significantly protect the domestic market from the global one, implying that lowering wheat dependency on foreign markets improves “stability” and “availability” of food security without sacrificing “utilization”, but it may aggravate “access”.

Land use change trend of paddy field and its influence on food security in Gerbangkertosusila Region

Economic growth encourages development growth in the Gerbangkertosusila (or can be shortened as GKS) region, which is a challenge for the agricultural sector. The phenomenon of changing the function of paddy fields to developed land because of the high demand for land can threaten the food security of a region. This research will model the trend of land use change and its impact on food security in GKS region in the next 20 years using cellular automata methods and quantitative statistics. Data collection was carried out by literature studies, field observations and interviews through questionnaires to relevant stakeholders. The results of the spatial modeling analysis of the paddy field conversion trend show that there are three regions that have the highest conversion rate of paddy fields in the GKS region, namely Sidoarjo, Gresik and Surabaya City. After further analysis related to food demand projections and rice production projections is carried out, Surabaya and Sidoarjo Regency is currently experiencing a food deficit which could last even in the years ahead. Having this result, the role of several other regencies such as Lamongan and Mojokerto Regency is needed in maintaining food security in the GKS region.

Will We Soon Run Out of Water?

In 2000, the World population was 6.2 billion; it reached 7 billion in 2012 and should reach 9.5 billion (±0.4) in 2050 and 11 billion (±1.5) in 2100, according to UN projections. The trend after 2100 is still one of global demographic growth, but after 2060, Africa would be the only continent where the population would still increase. The amount of water consumed annually to produce the food necessary to meet the needs varies greatly between countries, from about 600 to 2,500 m³/year per capita, depending on their wealth, their food habits (particularly meat consumption), and the percentage of food waste they generate. In 2000, the total food production was on the order of 3,300 million tons (in cereal equivalents). In 2019, about 0.8 billion inhabitants of the planet still suffer from hunger and do not get the nutrition they need to be in good health or, in the case of children, to grow properly (both physically and intellectually). Assuming a World average water consumption for food of 1,300 m³/year per capita in 2000, 1,400 m³/year in 2050, and 1,500 m³/year in 2100, a volume of water of around 8,200 km³/year was needed in 2000, 13,000 km³/year will be needed in 2050, and 16,500 km³/year in 2100. Will that much water be available on earth? Can there be conflicts related to a food deficit? Some preliminary answers and scenarios for food production will be given from a hydrologist viewpoint.

Geospatial Dynamics of Cropping pattern and Agricultural Efficiency in Kashmir Valley-A Northwestern Himalayan Region, India

Food (in)security and agricultural efficiency is a major challenge in many of the world’s mountain ranges. The particular physical characteristics of mountains and associated socioeconomic factors, mountain regions all over the world face challenges in terms of food security and cropping pattern, although at different levels. Mountains in developing countries are sites of poverty. About 40 percent of the mountain population or nearly 300 million people are estimated to be vulnerable to food insecurity, of these, nearly 90 percent live in rural areas and almost half of those are likely to be chronically hungry. The present study also focuses on the regional disparities in agricultural efficiency and cropping pattern across different tehsils of Kashmir Valley-A north-western part of Himalayas. The study was carried out across thirty-nine spatial units (Tehsils) among different districts of Kashmir valley in GIS and remote sensing environment. Both primary and secondary data was employed. The study shows that the productivity of paddy, maize, and wheat is showing an increasing trend among all tehsils of Kashmir valley from 2011 to 2017 but the area under these crops is decreasing at an alarming rate leading a food deficit of 21.70 percent. So, agriculture planning is badly needed to curb this grave problem and impose restrictions to land conversion a burning issue nowadays

FOOD PRICE, LOSSES AND LOGISTICS AFFECTING DIET DIVERSIFICATION AND FOOD SECURITY

This study aimed to investigate the impact of logistics performance, domestic food price, and food loss on diet diversification and depth of food deficit, as well as the impact of diet diversification and depth of food deficit on the prevalence of undernourishment worldwide. This investigation adopts a quantitative approach based on available data obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Food Security Index, and the World Bank Group. This study uses correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis as the analytical procedures. In a global perspective, evidence suggests that weak logistics performance tends to increase food loss, and domestic food price has a significant impact on diet diversification, as well as the domestic food price implies a significant increase in depth of food deficit in the world’s populations. Food price is the factor that most impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, severely affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide. Reducing food prices has the potential to promote greater diet diversification for populations worldwide, contributing to promote global food security. This study highlights the necessity to develop an improved and efficient global food system, capable of reducing food prices, promote a cleaner food production and deliver improved nutrition and health for world populations. This investigation sustains that food price severely impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide.

Enabling trade across borders and food security in Africa

Widespread food insecurity remains a daunting challenge in Africa, despite significant gains in global efforts to eliminate hunger over the last three decades. This paper examines the effects of easing trade across borders – through reductions in documents, time, and costs to export and import – on food security outcomes in Africa. To control for endogeneity, this paper employs the first-difference instrumental variable estimator based on panel data covering 45 African countries over the period 2006–2015. The results reveal that poor trade facilitation constitutes a significant driver of food insecurity in Africa. In particular, ineffective trade facilitation is associated with significant increments in the prevalence of undernourishment and depth of food deficit, as well as reductions in dietary energy supply adequacy and access to sanitation facilities. The results show that food availability and food access are significantly hampered by higher documentation requirements and lengthier export and import times. The results suggest that reductions in delays from documentary and border compliance promise to be the most effective trade facilitation reforms to enhance food security in Africa.