The Impact of Food Price Shocks in Uganda: First-Order Versus Long-Run Effects

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn Van Campenhout ◽  
Karl Pauw ◽  
Nicholas Minot
Keyword(s):  
Food Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

scholarly journals The Effects of Rising Food and Fuel Costs on Poverty in Pakistan

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Thompson Chaudhry ◽  
Azam Amjad Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Head Count ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poverty Levels

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second, the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally, food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to an 8% increase in the poverty head count.

The Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect on the Real Ruble Exchange Rate: The Assessment

2008 ◽  
pp. 12-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
V. Sokolov ◽  
A. Ulyukaev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Productivity Differentials ◽  
Productivity Differential ◽  
The Impact ◽  
German Data

The article presents an empirical investigation of the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real ruble appreciation in 1999-2007. We consider long-run, supply-side determinants of the real ruble exchange rate, such as changes in terms of trade and labor productivity. Using Russian and German data on price and productivity differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors of the two economies, we estimate the significance of oil price shocks and the Balassa-Samuelson effect for the real ruble appreciation. Our study demonstrates that, on average, about 1/3 of the observed appreciation can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The cointegrating relationship between the productivity differential and the real exchange rate provides evidence of the healthy nature of the economic growth, which took place in Russia during the time period under investigation. These findings suggest that exchange rate adjustments should be used by the Central Bank of Russia mainly as a monetary policy instrument for fighting inflation rather than as a tool for competitive devaluations.

scholarly journals Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mourad Zmami ◽  
Ousama Ben-Salha
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

The macroeconomic outcomes of oil price fluctuations have been at the forefront of the debate among economists, financial analysts and policymakers over the last decades. Among others, the oil price–food price nexus has particularly received a great deal of attention. While an abundant body of literature has focused on the linear relationship between oil price and food price, little is known regarding the nonlinear interactions between them. The aim of this paper is to conduct aggregated and disaggregated analyses of the impact of the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices on international food prices between January 1990 and October 2017. The empirical investigation is based on the estimation of linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The findings confirm the presence of asymmetries since the overall food price is only affected by positive shocks on oil price in the long-run. While the dairy price index reacts to both positive and negative changes of oil price, the impact of oil price increases is found to be greater. Finally, the asymmetry is present for some other agricultural commodity prices in the short-run, since they respond only to oil price decreases. All in all, the study concludes that studies assuming the presence of a symmetric impact of oil price on food price might be flawed. The findings are important for the undertaking of future studies and the design of international and national policies in the fight against food insecurity.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price inflation in Finland

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Irz ◽  
Jyrki Niemi ◽  
Liu Xing
Keyword(s):  
Food Chain ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006-8 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Although the impact of farm commodity price shocks on the final consumer is mitigated by a large degree of processing as well as the complex structure of the food chain, little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a co-integration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. However, highly volatile energy prices are also important in explaining food price variability. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation is dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic impacts of global food price shocks on the economy of Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 517-525
Author(s):  
Ayhan KAPUSUZOGLU ◽  
Xi LIANG ◽  
Nildag Basak CEYLAN
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of food prices on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. The effects are investigated using monthly data for the period January 1980–January 2016. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is employed for the analysis. Impulse response functions are obtained to assess the impact of food price shocks on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. To this end, SVAR model is employed as suggested by Cushman and Zha (1997). The impulse responses gathered suggest that the food price causes Turkish Lira (TRY) to appreciate and inflation to increase contemporaneously. This study provides an important contribution to the literature in terms of determining the factors and presenting the measures to be taken against these factors for Turkey which is a developing country and sensitive to macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (248) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carine Meyimdjui
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Private Credit ◽  
Imported Food ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price shocks on socio-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been accounted for. It focuses on import prices to reflect the vulnerability of importer countries / net-buyer households to food price shocks. The paper finds that import food price shocks strongly increase the likelihood of socio-political instability. This effect is greater in countries with lower levels of private credit and income per capita. On the other hand, while remittances seem to dampen the adverse effect of import food price shocks on socio-political instability in almost all countries, the mitigating role of fiscal policy is significant only in countries with low-levels of private credit.

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