395 Background: Radical cystectomy is an extensive operation with complications reported in up to 30.5% of patients. High complication rates contribute to increased costs, patient morbidity and mortality. Accurate prospective predictions of patients’ risk for post−surgical complications have the potential to identify at risk patients. Risk estimators have been developed but often involve an extensive number of factors or produce expansive results that are not clinically useful. Methods: 330 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for bladder cancer from January 2008 to July 2014 were included in this study. Potential preoperative risk predictors were collected from medical history, TURBT pathology, preoperative labs, proposed procedure type, and prior treatments. Postoperative complications were graded using the Clavien−Dindo scale. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict post−operative complications. Accuracy of prediction models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Of the potential preoperative risk factors, 5, 10 and 16 unique predictors along with two way interactions were determined to have strong association with 90 day postoperative complications, yielding an AUC of 0.69, 0.79 and 0.91 respectively. Conclusions: Our findings suggest routinely collected preoperative patient−level clinical variables may be useful for determining patient risk for short−term postoperative complications. The flexibility in our prediction model for the number of predictor inputs allow users to tailor the degree of risk assessment based on a patient’s baseline heath status. A simple and accessible prediction model with selective predictors may help identify at risk patients for patient education, counseling and development of risk reduction strategies.
Commentary on: Cosmetic Liposuction: Preoperative Risk Factors, Major Complication Rates, and Safety of Combined Procedures
