scholarly journals Structural VARs and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income African Countries†

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-478
Author(s):  
Bin Grace Li ◽  
Christopher Adam ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Peter Montiel ◽  
Stephen O’Connell
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The Impact

AbstractStructural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methods suggest the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in many low-income African countries. But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of low-income countries (LICs)? Using a small DSGE as our data-generating process, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in LICs. Nonetheless many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that statistically and economically insignificant results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong. These data features not only undermine the efficacy of the SVAR methodology for research and policy-making, but are also severe enough to motivate a continued search for monetary policy rules that are robust to these limitations.

Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Grace Li ◽  
Christopher Adam ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Peter Montiel ◽  
Stephen O’Connell
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The Impact

VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries. But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism where one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, the chapter assesses the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in low-income countries. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that ‘insignificant’ results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.

The Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-88
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

This chapter explores the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in low financial development countries (LFDCs). It successively discusses the interest rate, asset price, bank credit, balance sheet, expectations, and real balance channels. For each channel, conceptual aspects about how it operates, how it transmits monetary policy impulses to the economy’s financial and real spheres, are first presented. Next, the impact of the specificities of LFDCs on the channel’s strength and reliability are examined and the available empirical evidence is surveyed. The chapter concludes with a global assessment of the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in LFDCs. Evidence points to a transmission mechanism that is effective although not very strong, and possibly also more uncertain than in advanced and emerging market countries.

scholarly journals VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (90) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Grace Li ◽  
Stephen O'Connell ◽  
Christopher Adam ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Peter Montiel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism

scholarly journals VAR Meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin (Grace) Li ◽  
Stephen A. O'Connell ◽  
Christopher Scott Adam ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Peter J. Montiel
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism

scholarly journals Innovation Mechanism in Monetary Policy Forecasting: Unification of all Macroeconomic Puzzles in SVAR Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 219-230
Author(s):  
Angela Kuznyetsova ◽  
Olha Klishchuk ◽  
Andrew Lisnyak ◽  
Atik Kerimov ◽  
Azer Babayev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
The Real ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Impact

The article is devoted to developing a forecasting mechanism unifying all macroeconomic puzzles, which violate fundamental macroeconomic relationships among variables of the monetary transmission mechanism in Ukraine. The violations mentioned above caused by breaking one-law price (PPP puzzle), uncovered interest rates rule (UIP puzzle), plausible emergence of new sophisticated financial instruments, and causality of international risk-sharing conditions under the financial capital spillover. The authors calculated the residuals in the VAR model of monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) to analyze the correlations between shocks and disturbances in these variables. Furtherly these correlations were put in constructing the restriction matrix for building a structural vector autoregressive model. The correlations between shocks and disturbances were employed for estimating the impulse response functions used for determining the duration of half-life shocks for the real exchange rate. The obtained results allowed noticing that relationships between macroeconomic variables in the monetary transmission mechanism were not similar if considering the established foreign exchange arrangement. In particular, during 2007-2020, relationships among MTM variables were violated. Besides, the half-life duration of the real exchange rate was far longer. While in cases for Ukraine before switching to floating exchange rate regime and after it became less explicit and half-lives were shorter. The findings allowed confirming the impact of the currency arrangement switching on violation of traditional linkages between the variables of foreign exchange rate channel of MTM. Thus, it showed that during the fixed arrangement, absolutely all reactions were violated. Although after the introduction of a flexible exchange rate, the sign of REER correlation with foreign trade terms has changed to positive and more strengthened. Therefore, it has demonstrated a positive impact on the dynamics of real GDP and lower inflation. The findings of the current study could be used to improve existed methodical approaches for establishing structural constraints on variables responses to the shock of the exchange rate. The algorithm for designing optimal monetary policy strategies could take place in empirical data and forecasting exchange rate volatility. Keywords: PPP puzzle, UIP puzzle, MTM, financial innovations, REER, SVAR.

Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Policy Work ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Policy Guidance

Having broadly stabilized inflation over the past two decades, many policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa are now asking more of their monetary policy frameworks. They are looking to avoid policy misalignments and respond appropriately to both domestic and external shocks, including swings in fiscal policy and spikes in food and export prices. In many cases they are finding current regimes—often characterized as ‘money targeting’—lacking, with opaque and sometimes inconsistent objectives, inadequate transmission of policy to the economy, and difficulties in responding to supply shocks. At the same time, little existing research on monetary policy is targeted to low-income countries. What do we know about the empirics of monetary transmission in low-income countries? (How) Does monetary policy work in countries characterized by a huge share of food in consumption, underdeveloped financial markets, and opaque policy regimes? (How) Can we use methods largely derived in advanced countries to answer these questions? And (how) can we use the results to guide policymakers? This book draws on years of research and practice at the IMF and in central banks from the region to shed empirical and theoretical light on these questions and to provide practical tools and policy guidance. A key feature of the book is the application of dynamic general equilibrium models, suitably adapted to reflect key features of low-income countries, for the analysis of monetary policy in sub-Saharan African countries.

scholarly journals MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM UNDER DUAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN INDONESIA: CREDIT-FINANCING CHANNEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-278
Author(s):  
Reza Jamilah Fikri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Financing Channel

The presence of Islamic and conventional banking in the dual financial system of Indonesia equally hold the role as financial intermediator which theoretically banks collect fund from the debitors to be distributed to creditors. However, along with the changing of time there has been a development in the financial industry, when financial deregulation occurs, where the role of providing credit is not only owned by the banks but also other financial institutions. As the result, banks are no longer considered as the center of financial intermediation but could be replaced by other financial instruments. This study aims to reconsider the role of banking as financial intermediation in the monetary transmission mechanism using three methodoligal approaches which  are Vector Autoregression and Vector Error Correction Model (VAR-VECM), Error Correction Model (ECM), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The long-term results of ECM and VECM estimations both show that credit and finacing channel are still relevant to be employed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the development of financial sector and the change of monetary policy, yet only have an impact to economy and do not give effect to inflation. While the result of ARDL estimation indicates that none of the variables affect the  monetary policy objectives which means that credit and financing channel are considered to be getting weaker in the monetary transmission mechanism.   Keywords : Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Credit Channel, Dual Financial System JEL Classification: E51, E52, E58

Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Baldini ◽  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Mai C. Dao ◽  
Rafael Portillo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The authors develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a banking sector to analyse the impact of the financial crisis in developing countries and the role of the monetary policy response, with an application to Zambia. The crisis is interpreted as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. Model simulations broadly match the path of the economy during this period. The model-based analysis reveals that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. The authors derive policy implications for central banks, and for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling of monetary policy, in low-income countries.

Asymmetric Information and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Neyer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
External Finance

Abstract This paper analyses the consequences of asymmetric information in credit markets for the monetary transmission mechanism. It shows that asymmetric information can not only reinforce but can also weaken or overcompensate the effects of the standard interest rate channel. Crucial is that informational problems lead to an external finance premium that can be positive or negative for marginal entrepreneurs. Tight money may lead to an increase in the absolute value of this premium, implying that there is a credit channel of monetary policy, but its working direction is ambiguous.

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