The Path Forward

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hewitt Crane ◽  
Edwin Kinderman ◽  
Ripudaman Malhotra
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Global Energy Supply ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Energy Supply Systems

In this book we reviewed the course of energy consumption over the ages and projected the level of consumption through 2050. To facilitate the discussion, we introduced a new unit of energy—a cubic mile of oil equivalent, or CMO—that enables description of global energy flows in terms and numbers that are immediately comprehensible. We surveyed the various sources of energy in current use, established the quantities used, and projected our future needs on a global basis. While for much of our history the availability of energy has played an important role in determining the potentials and abilities of humans, in recent times energy has become much more important because resources are coming under strain. Greater energy use is beginning to influence our environment more strongly than ever before. A characteristic of global energy supply systems is the slowness with which they can shift. The slowness is a consequence of several factors. The size of the incumbent technologies and the advantage that they have in terms of learned improvements, economies of scale, and delivery infrastructure, play an important role in the rate at which new technologies are adopted. New technologies are often more expensive simply because cost reductions occur with experience, and it takes time for something new to penetrate the markets and build an experience base. Government subsidies and research and development (R&D) investments can help break this vicious cycle, but in the end the technologies have to deliver value to the customers before they can be adopted widely. There are also limited numbers of manufacturing and delivery systems in place for new technologies. Because basic energy supplies adapt slowly to change—as do most technologies—while energy demand grows more rapidly with population and income, we must act now to bring new supplies and new patterns of energy demand into play to meet the projected global energy demands of mid 21st century. Time is of the essence! Abundant energy has become an essential part of modern life, and we cannot go without it if we wish to retain even a small fraction of our current civilization.

Robust Optimal Design of a Gas Turbine Cogeneration Plant Under Uncertain Energy Demands and Costs

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryohei Yokoyama ◽  
Masashi Ohkura ◽  
Tetsuya Wakui
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Design ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Robust Optimal Design ◽  
Optimal Design Method ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Energy Supply Systems

In designing energy supply systems, designers should consider that energy demands and costs as parameters have some uncertainties, evaluate the robustness in system performances against the uncertainties, and design the systems rationally to heighten the robustness. A robust optimal design method of energy supply systems under only uncertain energy demands was revised so that it can be applied to systems with complex configurations and large numbers of periods for variations in energy demands. In addition, a method of comparing performances of two energy supply systems under only uncertain energy demands was proposed by utilizing a part of the revised robust optimal design method. In this paper, the revised robust optimal design method as well as the proposed performance comparison method are extended so that they can be applied to the robust optimal design and the performance comparison of energy supply systems under not only uncertain energy demands but also uncertain energy costs. Through a case study on a gas turbine cogeneration system for district energy supply, the validity and effectiveness of the extended optimal design method and features of the robust optimal design are clarified. In addition, the gas turbine cogeneration system is compared with a conventional energy supply system using the extended performance comparison method.

Evaluation of Performance Robustness of a Gas Turbine Cogeneration Plant Based on a Mixed-Integer Linear Model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryohei Yokoyama ◽  
Ryo Nakamura ◽  
Tetsuya Wakui ◽  
Yuji Shinano
Keyword(s):  
Linear Model ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Cogeneration Plant ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Integer Linear Model ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Energy Supply Systems ◽  
Performance Robustness

In designing energy supply systems, designers are requested to rationally determine equipment types, capacities, and numbers in consideration of equipment operational strategies corresponding to seasonal and hourly variations in energy demands. However, energy demands have some uncertainty at the design stage, and the energy demands which become certain at the operation stage may differ from those estimated at the design stage. Therefore, designers should consider that energy demands have some uncertainty, evaluate the performance robustness against the uncertainty, and design the systems to heighten the robustness. Especially, this issue is important for cogeneration plants, because their performances depend significantly on both heat and power demands. Although robust optimal design methods of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands were developed, all of them are based on linear models for energy supply systems. However, it is still a hard challenge to develop a robust optimal design method even based on a mixed-integer linear model. At the first step for this challenge, in this paper, a method of evaluating the performance robustness of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands is proposed based on a mixed-integer linear model. This problem is formulated as a bilevel mixed-integer linear programming one, and a sequential solution method is applied to solve it approximately by discretizing uncertain energy demands within their intervals. In addition, a hierarchical optimization method in consideration of the hierarchical relationship between design and operation variables is applied to solve large scale problems efficiently. Through a case study on a gas turbine cogeneration plant for district energy supply, the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method and features of the performance robustness of the plant are clarified.

213 Optimal Operation of Energy Supply Systems Based on Prediction of Energy Demands

2004 ◽  
Vol 2004.79 (0) ◽  
pp. _2-27_-_2-28_
Author(s):  
Daisuke KUMASHIRO ◽  
Ryohei YOKOYAMA ◽  
Koichi ITO ◽  
Kazuyuki KAMIMURA ◽  
Tadahiko MATSUBA
Keyword(s):  
Energy Supply ◽  
Optimal Operation ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Energy Supply Systems

Construction of Smart Building Skins with Flow and Bend Split Products

2013 ◽  
Vol 660 ◽  
pp. 222-229
Author(s):  
Stefan Schäfer ◽  
Ante Ljubas ◽  
Scholeh Abedini
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficient ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Structural Complexity ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Price Development ◽  
Smart Building ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Smart Skin

Global energy price development causes a growing demand for energy efficient architectural building concepts. As a part of a systemic approach, smart building skins provide an option to reduce overall energy demands. In this regard, intelligent adaptivity of the building skin promotes environmental responsivity ensuring optimized energy use. Smart skins as eco-technological environments are mostly produced with serialized and prefabricated elements. Advances in serialized pre-fabrication reduce costs in relation to structural complexity of smart skin designs. Integral potentials of flow and bend split components for adaptable façade structures are projected with an exemplified foldable structure defining a cost-effective production solution for smart skins. Integrated, experimental scripting methods, jointing and mechanizing techniques are applied for this first prototype.

scholarly journals A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing, mobility, and material efficiency for material cycles and energy systems modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomer Fishman ◽  
Niko Heeren ◽  
Stefan Pauliuk ◽  
Peter Berrill ◽  
Qingshi Tu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Industrial Ecology ◽  
Scenario Modeling ◽  
Material Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Material Cycles ◽  
Systems Modelling ◽  
End Use ◽  
Scenario Formulation

Scenario-based assessments are a useful tool to explore unknown futures and inform decision makers and the general public of the consequences of different courses of action. Scenario developments in Industrial Ecology (IE) have focused on disparate components of the socioeconomic metabolism and case studies, and few efforts of comprehensive and cumulative scenario formulation are documented. Many important, empirically derived relationships between material cycles, end-use services, and energy use are relevant to global scenario modeling efforts, e.g. of integrated assessment models (IAMs), which do not routinely describe material cycles or the life-cycle impacts of various technology shifts. These gaps hinder the assessment of sustainable development strategies such as demand-side sufficiency, material efficiency, and energy efficiency. We developed scenarios for comprehensive assessment of material cycles and associated environmental impacts linked to demand for service provisioning of dwelling area and personal transport. We formulated three scenarios for 20 global regions based on the Low Energy Demand (LED) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1 and SSP2) narratives with corresponding material efficiency strategy implementation potentials. While climate change mitigation scenarios are usually formulated as counterfactual scenarios, none of them center on service provision and material cycles at this level of detail. The explicit storyline extension approach presented here is a novel alternative to the aggregate GDP or time-driven extrapolations of service or energy demands. We describe the scenario formulation processes, resulting parameters, their applications, and offer an outlook for prospective sustainability models.

scholarly journals A LIFE CYCLE ENERGY COMPARISON OF THREE WORLD EXPO BUILDINGS

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 151-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Shen ◽  
Brenda Vale ◽  
Robert Vale
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Embodied Energy ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Building Performance ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
World Expo ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Over the last hundred years the booming exhibition industry has promoted development, which in turn has led to environmental damage. The construction of exhibition buildings has been part of this phenomenon. At first sight improvement in energy efficiency techniques would seem to offset the increased energy demand from both exhibitions and exhibition buildings. However, whether energy efficiency technologies truly help to improve building performance to the point where a building is ‘environmentally friendly’ throughout its whole life-cycle is uncertain. This research is part of investigating whether energy efficiency technologies are really the easiest means to lower costs and energy requirements when the whole useful life of an exhibition building is considered. This article investigates the energy use of three case study buildings based on their operating and embodied energy flows. The results suggest that modern technologies for making exhibition buildings more sustainable may not be as effective as the simpler strategies used over 100 years ago. This suggests a different approach may be needed for sustainable development in the twenty first century.

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