Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

A new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has been identified based on genomic sequencing and epidemiological data in South Africa. Presumptive Omicron cases in South Africa have grown extremely rapidly, despite high prior exposure and moderate vaccination coverage. The available evidence suggests that Omicron spread is at least in part due to evasion of this immune protection, though it may also exhibit higher intrinsic transmissibility. Using detailed laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa, we estimate the constraints on these two characteristics of the new variant and their relationship. Our estimates and associated uncertainties provide essential information to inform projection and scenario modeling analyses, which are crucial planning tools for governments around the world.

PRECEDENT-ANALYTICAL MODEL OF EXERCISE SYSTEM FOR ENERGY MANAGERS

The topical issue of development of theoretical bases of creation and application of computerized systems for training of energy managers of industrial enterprises is considered. The object of the study is the practical activities of the company's staff, aimed at improving the energy efficiency of production systems for various purposes. The subject of research is computer technologies of training and coaching of industrial enterprise personnel. The purpose of the study is to create tools aimed at training the staff of energy management services. The research is based on scenario modeling of energy manager actions and precedent modeling of equipment reactions to such actions. The modeling of energy manager actions is based on the Deming cycle, and the modeling of reactions of production systems is based on cases of quasi-stationary energy consumption of the technological system. The software platform of the proposed technology consists of software modules that reproduce the control cycle PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) and the subject area of ​​training in the form of a software add-on. The technology allows to work out the actions of the energy manager aimed at planning energy saving measures and calculating the financial and economic results achieved during their implementation.

Modeling Challenges for Cold Gas Oil Gravity Drainage cGOGD Development of a Naturally Fractured Reservoir and Lessons Learnt –A Case Study, North Oman Oil Field

Global experience in cold Gas Oil Gravity Drainage (cGOGD) recovery with crestal gas injection of infield produced gas is very limited, but is a proven economic recovery method for fractured carbonate reservoirs in North Oman. Despite decades of research in nature of fluid flow in fracture-matrix media and application of sophisticated tools in building fracture model of a naturally fractured reservoir (NFR) reliable prediction of the GOGD production performance often proved elusive. Characterization of fracture networks and modeling of matrix-fracture transfer function, gravity induced fluid flow in heterogeneous matrix media especially in case of capillary discontinuity due to tight interbedded matrix and capillary pressure hysteresis are the key challenges for reservoir modeller. Re-infiltration of oil into lower matrix blocks, matrix permeability, fracture density and spacing, wettability and reservoir fluid properties have significant impact on the well and field performance. The risk posed due to undermining the key modeling parameters have huge implication on facility design, subsurface concept and value of the project. The challenges in upscaling the fracture properties in a range of grid scale, experimental design for history matching and uncertainty analysis, understanding the oil rim development in leached zone and numerical options are some of the key aspects which have been illustrated in this paper. The field being on primary production since 1985, showed poor recovery and high water cut. Multi-episodic tectonic events resulted in variable fracture intensity and fracture permeability anisotropy. This study investigated the effects of the parameters on cGOGD recovery process, operating strategy (e.g., gas injection rate and liquid offtake) and on the overall field performance. The development decisions are not simply relied upon the dynamic simulator results, but an integrated understanding from comprehensive analytical calculations for multiple recovery mechanism such as fluid expansion, fracture oil displacement, gravity drainage from background matrix and leached zone and analogue field GOGD performance were taken into consideration. The subsurface development decisions such as producer location with respect to faults and lineament, well pattern & spacing, producer depth, gas injector locations, gas injection scenarios, aquifer pump-out wells and maximum off-take rate were analyzed and optimum decision could be taken from multi-scenario modeling studies. The GOGD development could increase the field recovery up to ~9% at low UTC and positive NPV. A pragmatic and integrated modeling workflow with multi-scenario modeling approach was pursued to address the development risk which facilitated the field to be economically developed. The key modeling challenges have been highlighted for GOGD modeling process with gas recycling option of development which can be replicated in similar fields in PDO.

Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic

The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.

Improvement of Supply Chain Management in the United States as a Strategic Direction for the Economic Policy of the Biden-Harris Administration

Aim. The presented study aims to analyze changes in the economic and political systems of the United States associated with the transformation of approaches to supply chain regulation.Tasks. The authors identify the specific aspects of regulating social, economic, political, and other processes in the United States through presidential executive directives; assess the extent to which issues related to supply chain management are reflected in executive directives; analyze the specific features of supply chain management regulation in the United States in the BidenHarris administration.Methods. This study uses general scientific research methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, etc.) as well as special methods such as content analysis, economic and political analysis, and scenario modeling.Results. The study makes it evident that in the United States great attention is paid to supply chain management issues at the national level, and this is reflected in presidential executive directives. Activity in this area has increased significantly in the Biden-Harris administration. All key ministries are becoming involved in supply chain management, with an emphasis on ensuring national and economic security and maintaining the political, military, and economic leadership of the United States in the world.Conclusions. The economy and politics of the United States continue to play an important role in the development of mankind. Investigation of the emerging specific trends in these areas helps to adequately respond to future changes. The executive directives of the US President serve as a meaningful source of information about such trends. Their analysis shows that the Biden-Harris administration seeks to highlight the improvement of supply chain management in the United States as one of the strategic directions of the implemented policy.

Cognitive modeling of the quality management system of distance learning of pupils in the digital educational environment

The article describes current approaches to managing the quality of distance learning for schoolchildren in the conditions of digitalization. Using the methodology of cognitive modeling, we studied how the quality of distance learning of schoolchildren (the quality of educational results of schoolchildren and the quality of educational services) will change when the control variables change – the effectiveness of the administrative and managerial structure overseeing the organization of distance learning at school; the qualifications of administrators and teachers implementing the distance learning process; qualification of teachers of the school; assessment of parents-legal representatives of students; expert opinion of the students themselves. An example of a cognitive model of the educational process and the results of scenario modeling of the influence of control variables on the quality of distance learning of schoolchildren are given.